Member Info for ChameleonMan

Appointing a consultant was just another way to kick the can down the road. The lack of any tangible output or outcome speaks for itself.

We appear to have rejected one suitor (GALP) hoping for a better deal which would support your view. In my mind this has rather undermined a reasonable route to market via a proposed GALP refinery and links to battery maker Northvolt and it’s customers including VW, BMW, Scania etc.
The current SP reflects this lack of clarity and the lack of environmental approval and a DFS. All to come of course but it is frustratingly slow is it not?

Which for example presents Portuguese business culture as follows “ However, despite the changes that have undoubtedly taken place in the country, Portugal still suffers from a number of inherent difficulties which many observers, both internal and external, see as real brakes on the further development of the economy. The biggest problem faced by the country seems to be the continuing (and seemingly unchanging) burden of a vast and largely inefficient public sector. This public sector issue is often charged with not only producing ongoing Budget difficulties but also stifling private sector initiatives and vitality.”
Well if the likes of Renault and Stellantis are reading this kind of message it’s no wonder that they are signing up to projects in Germany even if the resource is not conventional? (Vulcan).

https://www.electrive.com/2021/08/02/renault-group-secures-lithium-deal-with-vulcan-energy/

Hope Vulcan is able to deliver as geothermal is hardly conventional? Note that Stellantis has also signed up. One would think SAV to be a surer bet but as yet no ink on paper.

Yes, Rio tend to think in decades rather than years and have certainly not lifted a finger in Moz. Probably a more active partner would be one whose existing business has been transformed ( negatively) by the race for clean energy. I’m thinking Shell, BP, GALP and the other “oilies”. VW of course has seen the additional opportunity to leave “dieselgate” behind them. Either would make great active partners. In posting the Rio Tinto news I was really saying -don’t forget about the major miners who don’t want to miss the boat. It will all come out in the wash as they say.

IB, I suppose the test of interest from the mining majors will be whether they field bids for these “patchwork pieces” at the forthcoming but much delayed auction of Li mining tenements by Portugov. Will the likes of Rio and Fortescue ignore the opportunity or allow minnows like SAV to scoop them up? Maybe in the future their CEOs will be judged on whether they had the foresight to secure scarce assets on the cheap or not. Personally I think a bidding war more likely, driving the value of existing well-defined licensed tenements with excellent economics ever skyward.

Our Moz JV partner is determined to be a major player in the European LI market it seems…
https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/membership/rio-tinto-commits-2-4bn-to-arrive-at-lithiums-main-stage/
Investing BIG money in mining Jadar. No reason they shouldn’t take a stake in MdB in time? They may have to compete with VW amongst others?
The news seems to have floated all boats in the Li market (Zinnwald, EMH,..). This is getting to be a more exciting market from the top down, what with the forthcoming listing of EV maker Lucid Motors, tipped as major competition to Tesla. Interesting times ahead.

It is now!

July 16 (Reuters) - China's Ganfeng Lithium Co Ltd said on Friday it would buy Argentina-focused Millennial Lithium Corp for about C$353 million ($280 million), extending a deal spree by one of the world's biggest producers of the white metal. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/1-chinas-ganfeng-offer-buy-125417825.html

I dare say as accurate a forecasting tool as any in this market currently?

IB, ignoring the possibility that it is a complete coincidence, should we assume SAV and EMH may be talking about the same “thing” under the same market restrictions? Perhaps a JV, asset sale, merger or maybe joint contract from VW, joint award of funding from EIB? It does seem to have been arranged rather far in advance for it to be a time sensitive RNS -worthy release? I will be sitting on my hands either way to avoid the usual disappointment!

Sounds like an astute date for DA to give an update. The public consultation will be complete and the announcement of a DIA will be expected in August. “Assuming there are no statutory delays, Savannah is expecting to receive the DIA during August 2021. Subject to the results of the EIA, construction is targeted to commence in 2022 with commercial production in 2023.”
Statutory delays are as inevitable as penalty shootouts and forecasting the outcome is equally unreliable!

An asset sale has been my view for some time but any deal that adds optimum value in a reasonable time scale is ok by me. The expiry of the EA aligns with in my mind with NvS’s desire to emulate that legendary mining auction they often refer to. I’m happy to wait it out and load up at these bargain prices. (£20 k so far this morning and already in profit!).

Bargain price. Just had £10k @ 4.3.

Certainly pump fuel prices are a lot higher which plays to the case for EV use. Alongside the rising oil price, Macquarie think that lithium will shortly be in “Long-Term Perpetual Deficit” which will inflate the price of spodumene from MdB and elsewhere.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2021/07/02/lithium-price-tipped-to-rise-after-warning-of-perpetual-deficit/amp/

https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2021/07/gm-invests-millions-to-secure-local-lithium-supply-for-future-evs/

Hopefully the start of more auto manufacturers securing lithium supplies. A reminder that location matters.

6 days ha ha! Who dares wins! I’m good for another £5k.

Im sure AA will want to close the deal before other potential bidders are allowed in. They want it but their deal closers will be targeted on achieving the best result for AA. A company like AA will have the best M&A team who after the deal is done will be judged on whether they have got value for AA’s shareholders. I can’t see Rothschilds advising ARCM to start again with a new suitor. They will want to crystallise their fee ASAP. As well as negotiating the best deal price, their task will be to get ARCM to recognise and accept a deal that is a win-win for both parties. So my view is that the deal closure is imminent and I can’t see ARCM’s share price remaining in single figures by the end of July.

I should ignore the scaremongering on here. This deal is clearly in its final stages. The problem for investors has been the long duration of the exclusivity agreement. The original offer from AA was rejected by ARCM as you might expect knowing the mindset of the ARCM board to get a top deal. That offer was no doubt withdrawn by AA to hang ARCM out to dry for a while. There is no point in AA making a counter offer until the EA is about to expire as the ARCM board would feel they would have time to ask for more. A final offer will arrive on the day the EA expires or thereabouts and is likely to be accepted in my opinion.

The Goulamina lithium project is estimated to contain ore reserves of 31.2MT grading 1.56% Li2O = 0.49 MT Li2O. Gangfeng is acquiring 50% for $130 million= $530/MT
SAV has about 27MT @1% Li2O = .27 MT so Gangfeng might hope to pay $143 million for MdB. I would also suggest that a project in Europe is much more valuable than one in Mali.

Given that SAV is currently valued at £66 million ($92 million) which includes Moz, we appear somewhat undervalued?