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Seems like we are heading back up at a decent pace now that the doom mongers have nothing more to say. Feels like the beginning of a new era for SAV . No change to fundamentals but a firm timescale towards approval and a re rate.

Seems to me quite a lot of positives from the RNS. We are now in a time-defined approval process rather than an open-ended one. No reason why it needs to run the full time either as a lot of the work e.g. the decarbonisation process has already been done and just needs incorporating in the formal application. DA leaving is an unknown but Dale is a capable successor if only in the meantime. Speculation on a takeover is just that. For me this is a buying opportunity and I have had another £10k just now. GLA

S49, I don’t think you should tar all commodities in a recession with the same brush? Copper targets the new green industries like EVs, wind power etc which are more copper-hungry and are on a different growth curve to traditional industries.
Great article in last week’s MoneyWeek - “Cash in on Copper” -some extracts: “In April last year, the commodities team at Goldman Sachs published a report on the state of the global copper market titled Green Metals: Copper is the New Oil. Overall, it’s forecasting an extra 5mt of demand by 2029, equivalent to 16% of global production today.
Goldman isn’t alone in this view. Last year, Gary Nagle, the head of Glencore, one of the world’s largest commodity companies, told the Financial Times that the copper supply would need to rise by an extra million tonnes a year by 2050 to meet green energy targets. As
most of the world’s easy-to-access copper deposits have already been mined, Glencore reckons the price of the metal will have to hit $15,000 a tonne to justify further investment. That’s around 67% above current levels.
The challenge for producers (and indeed the world) is that it’s not terribly easy to set up a new copper mine. It takes about three years to expand a mine and eight years to start a new one. Nor are there many alternatives to copper. Aluminium is one, but it has only 61% of the conductivity and is less durable (the aluminium market also has its own supply issues). Freeport-McMoRan’s CEO summed up the state of the industry in 2021 when he said, “the price of copper could double overnight... and we couldn’t add new production of significance for a number of years”.
Personally I think ARCM is sitting pretty and could be seen as a recession beater but like Fulmar, what do I know?

I guess the big automotive company boards get constant questions on what they are doing to close the gap between future demand for batteries and the supply of raw materials? Additionally they are under pressure to reduce carbon. They can easily point to this deal now. Maybe the fact that production is way down the line and uncertain is less of a concern than we might imagine?
By the way I am reminded that Volvo made a substantially bigger investment (Euro 3.3Billion ) in Northvolt last year who of course name partners GALP and SAV…..

The deal ticks a lot of boxes - pump energy and lithium out of the ground on a net zero carbon basis- playing well with Stellantis’ environmental credentials. Portugal hasn’t the geothermal resources as far as I know but has plenty of sunshine to drive solar farms, some floating on water. GALP is all over this and green hydrogen to boot. So lots of low carbon energy, plans for a lithium refinery and battery plant. Just need a fully permitted low carbon mining operation………..

Well I don’t have KevB’s budget but I am following the same principle and have bought 1 million in the last couple of weeks at well under my average. I only buy when prices ARE cheap, not when they are fairly valued and I think they might go higher and that tactic has served me pretty well.

….no comment from SAV yet. Not even a tweet? Maybe DA is keeping his powder dry for a fuller picture?

It certainly is massive -almost 1BN Euro to be spent by GALP to establish a sustainable mining operation with SAV. Surely just a matter of time before the environmental decision now and almost unimaginable that it would be anything but positive?

Hi IB, I think the project started about 2019 and could end in 2023 but I haven’t invested enough time to be sure. Normally these projects last about 4 years but may have finished early. I suspect there will be a follow-on project to 2026 which may be the one which is being funded. It seems unusual to announce that they have chosen projects but not said which? I remember the document you refer to and I think one of our fellow posters pinned it down but I have lost the link now.
I think the importance of the funding is that Portugal is focussing on battery manufacturing being reluctant to export raw or refined Li. If we have a funded battery maker in Portugal the proposal to mine in MdB has much more credibility.

I still can’t find anything about these projects that Portugal is funding with EU money but I did come across this which may be relevant. MdB is mentioned but with a comment on local resistance. https://www.project-albatts.eu/Media/Publications/23/Publications_23_20210920_83914.pdf

See p 56:
“Raw material suppliers
Lithium suppliers83
Albemarle, Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM), Livent Corp., Tianqi Lithium Industries, Ganfeng Lithium
Most of these Lithium suppliers have operations or joint ventures in mines or brine reserves in more than one country, and some (as Livent) have processing plants distributed over many countries. Australia has the most extensive present production, followed by Chile, China, and Argentina, while the biggest reserves are located in Chile.84 There are also smaller suppliers – for example, Northvolt and LG Chem have a contract with Canadian Nemaska Lithium. LG
83https://www.automotivelogistics.media/electric-vehicles/electric-vehicle-battery-supply-chain-analysis-2021- how-lithium-ion-battery-demand-and-production-are-reshaping-the-automotive-industry/41924.article Accessed 25.08.2021. 84https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium-mining-what-you-should-know-about- the-contentious-issue.html# Accessed 25.08.2021.

Chem also has supply contracts with Ganfeng, as the Volkswagen Group and BMW. VW will build its own battery factories, while BMW secures lithium for its battery producers (as Northvolt). Ganfeng has a joint venture mine in Ireland (Avalonia). Portugal has Europe’s most extensive lithium production and reserves (as Montealegre and Barroso). Still, starting mines in these locations seem complex as local community interests oppose lithium mining in these areas.85 The Finnish mining company Keliber is not yet producing but preparing for lithium mining.86”

Indeed many hungry mouths to feed and it doesn’t include the Aurora project for Portugal with our friends Northvolt.
https://www.electrive.com/2021/12/14/northvolt-galp-to-build-lithium-plant-in-portugal/

Looks promising! If SAV is a recipient directly or indirectly we should find out soon. Well spotted!

…have added another 750,000.

I think the website’s bull logo is a pretty accurate description of its contents?

I saw Sr Costa shuffling into no 10 with Boris yesterday. Good to see some tangible output. If only there was a tangible example of mutual cooperation in the new energy sector to follow the announcement?………

Ps why can’t we rerun the feasibility numbers based on current lithium prices and whet appetites with a juicy editorial?

Yes I was there too. It’s a salutary reminder that it matters little how good (or bad) the intrinsic value proposition is - it only matters whether folks are buying or selling. It’s also why I keep banging on about having some decent PR. The recent headlines such as “SAV caught in Portuguese red tape” following the AGM statement may be correct but aren’t helpful.

By the time they finish faffing around in the courts we could all be driving hydrogen-powered cars!

Unusual to call it a political decision as it does not need to go before the Portuguese parliament. The government has a clear majority secured in a recent election so exactly who is blocking it at a political level?
Feels more like some government officials dragging their heels, unwilling to accept responsibility for any subsequent backlash should they pass the EIA?
Not much to do but wait…….

It’s now four months since the Portuguese Ministry for the environment and INaction announced the advancement of lithium mining tenders within two months. The ministry is great at talking, seminars and procrastination but hopeless at getting practical things done. The auctions are a side issue for SAV but indicative of the glacial pace of this government’s actions. Will be interesting to see if they get a mention at the summit.