Member Info for Cesna

Thank you all for the good insight.

I was expecting a credit rating review shortly from moodys (B3) and Standard&Poors (CCC+).

19 June Moodys key rating considerations are summarized below.

The B3 corporate family rating of Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow") is underpinned by its sizeable oil and gas asset portfolio located in Africa, including low cost production offshore Ghana (B3 negative) and significant resources in Uganda (B2 stable) and Kenya (B2 negative), albeit likely to be monetised in the near future. The rating also reflects Tullow's inherent exposure to the volatility in oil prices and high concentration of production in Ghana, which results into some linkage between its ratings and the sovereign rating of Ghana. In late 2019, operational issues encountered at the Jubilee and TEN fields in recent years led Tullow to revise downward its guidance for medium-term production and cash flow outlook. While conservative financial management (including a prudent hedging programme) helps underpin the cash flow resilience of the group, an extended period of low commodity prices is likely to leave it free cash flow negative. In this context, the timely execution of the $1 billion asset disposal programme launched in late 2019 will be key to reduce Tullow's heightened leverage and strengthen its liquidity profile.

With Uganda completion (re) scheduled to end of year, is that single event a drag on the SP ie if gov/ura approval on monday, the sp would shoot up?

Can the 2021 bonds convert to share leaving tlw with the uganda cash for something else.

made a killing again. I wonder how much of our investment has made its way into Marshall Wace hedge fund via their short. We were warned Brexit was really just hedgefunds. What are they actually investing in, anyone know?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/c54835ae-7c6b-4caf-be27-955547d211a4

Thanks Clueless.

Why did TLW change group policy on long term oil to $60 but negotiate a deal with Total including contingent payments >$60. I suppose group policy is now ultra conservative while the commercial reality is better. Hence Total just fired the starting gun.

Thanks Slift.
What do you think gets group policy back to $65 and is that remotely possible by year end?

Android, good question. I am not an expert and I dont know. Anybody else?

Shame we got additional impairment. Not very clear.
The 2019 statutory accounts said 'Oil prices stated in note 11 (Property, plant and equipment) are benchmark prices to which an individual field price differential is applied. Exploration write-offs for the Kenya and Uganda development area assessments are prepared on a value-in-use basis using discounted future cash flows based on 2C resource profiles. A reduction or increase in the long-term price assumptions of $15/bbl, based on the range seen in external oil price market forecasts, are considered to be a reasonably possible change for the purposes of sensitivity analysis. Decreases to oil prices would increase the exploration write-off charge by $1,108.0 million, whilst increases to oil prices specified above would result in a credit to the exploration write-offs of $831.0 million. A 1 per cent increase in the pre-tax discount rate would increase the exploration write-off by $268.0 million. A 1 per cent decrease in the pre-tax discount rate would decrease the exploration write-off by $266.0 million. The Group believes a 1 per cent change in the pre-tax discount rate to be a reasonable possibility based on historical analysis of the Group’s and a peer group of companies’ discount rates

Think this is the big ii's / hedgies churning the indexes. A return to paying a div would help as the goodwill write down was just accounting not cash imo

PATTS
If you are just getting into mcro then you will probably do ok.
Good luck

RPATTS
The resistance levels are market screeners, not mine.
The trading pattern from 1100 is based on my holding and the trading narrative on this BB over that period
Its not just market over reaction to the rns's., the management put their hands up to poor integration skills and execution..
Now its the sales pipeline and CV. Are MCRO capable of telling a positive story?

This pattern since 1100 to 800 to 600.
200 and its out of the ftse 250. The yanks then pick it up for 50p. Del Trotters broken lawnmowers come to mind

PATTS where do see support. Dropping everday. Double bottom?

short term 254
mid term 191
long term 199
https://www.marketscreener.com/MICRO-FOCUS-INTERNATIONAL-57802294/charts/

Hope market likes 400 better than 300 :-)
They didnt like
2000
1900
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
..for very long.

maybe the ii's churning out from index trackers etc. 2000p to 300p in 12 months and no div? Need to drop another 40% before out of ftse250. Not sure the goodwill write down was bad enough for that. But the management keep giving bad news, when do they stop? Cyber security acquisition looks good for the future but that may drive another write down as legacy is 'transformed'? Volatile for a while yet imo

If enough PIs buy in it will test 300 imo. But they hurt too many in a short time frame and only 5 months into the 3 year turnaround...

Have we lost Invest_Share101? He/she called it right..any thoughts after last weeks calls?

'I really doubt it will hit 1p'
Definitely be accumulating @ 4p or below. 5.1p seemed a bargain but its dropping 8/ 9% every day..

Nice mintvilla. still recoiling from finablr. good luck with your profits ;-)

..from shells impairment testing today
Brent: $35/bbl (2020), $40/bbl (2021), $50/bbl (2022), $60/bbl (2023) and long-term $60 (real terms 2020)