Member Info for Cesna

$41.74 should help slow the rot .?
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil-streaming-chart

If tlw can produce $100m free cashflow every year ie after capex etc then using 12% discount rate, that would be worth c$0.59 (c47p) per share ie
100/.12/1410.

Can tlw generate $100m fcf pa off 70kbpd?

I see 45p short term if oil price up

How do you get 60p or 100p?
Slift yesterday shows net assets = -ve or zero after uganda and kenya sale.
Only thing left is cashflow servicing debt and maybe growth if can reduce cost pbl under new ceo?
Those are the conditions for a lowball bid, change staff costs etc

'According to the uganda sale circular, 31 December 2019 net assets adjusted for sale of uganda is 33p.'

Does it follow that because we are hedged we could expect $250m or more incremental freecashflow this year. That would be another 18p per share ie 51p?

'1 in 10 people in this chat are shorter'
So pay down debt, improve debt valuations and credit ratings, close shorts, increase SP

'66% discount of their original offer.'
They were expecting $80 oil. Now, maybe $60. If you need to move house you get the market price?

'isn't a valid excuse to give away Uganda for just $575 millions.'
Fair price. Avoids increasing debt to finance and increasing tlw capacity and costs to deliver it. Also a criteria for rerating tlw. If gearing could be unconstrained then a different story!

'What's the consensus on sp for sale/ No sale of Uganda?'
1.4Bn for the sale as far as I can tell

'Good to know that you've read the circular!'
Glad I didnt print it out.

Slift, ah yes deferred capex $15m
The $25m is shown on page70 starting next year as follows
'initiating a further rationalisation of its cost base (in addition to measures already implemented since December 2019) through a further reduction of general and administrative costs. The Directors are reasonably confident that a further reduction of approximately US$25 million per annum can be achieved from 2021 onwards'

'Yes, Cashflow breakeven is $35/barrel.
Anything above that is FCF.'
In the Uganda circular, they state a further $25m of cost savings on top of previous advice, if required...

'If thats the case then PMO will be flying next week.'
Sell tlw, buy pmo...africa oil hedge at discount to north sea. If uganda sale approved, net assets are c33p..

'Q2 performance should be on plan. A quick read of the Uganda transaction circular and it says:
'As of 31 May 2020, Tullow had approximately 60 per cent. of its 2020 sales revenue hedged with a floor of approximately US$57/bbl and approximately 40 per cent. of its 2021 sales revenue hedged with a floor of approximately US$53/bbl. Tullow’s realised oil price for the five months ended 31 May 2020 was approximately US$52/bbl including the benefit of approximately US$111 million of net hedge receipts during the period. '

So, including the bottom of the pandemic, TLW still managed an average of $52/bbl over the 5 months!.
Fantastic. Free cashflow breakeven is $35/bbl. Roll on TLW.'

Thanks Longish.

'Disagree, they needed to get debt down in current low oil price environment. Also if POO does go high in couple of years they have income stream above $62/bbl . It will prove a shrewd move for long term holders'

Right now, a barrel of cash in the bank is worth 30 barrels in the ground. TLW has lots of assets/ reserves and its been raining so, mr delmonte says 'yes' to the deal

'They have 200K customers but there are 8 million people in UK who fit the demographic of a guarantor loan.'
Regulation kicks in if even 1 consumer suffers harm. Now citizens, they are completely different, apparently.

'Unless there is fraud, little we or fca can do.'
Its not like finablr/nmc where the system of governance and internal controls were weak. Its interpretation of consumer harm and needs a legal determination imo

'Doesn't anyone, and I mean ANYONE, on the board take any notice of what's going on in the world?'

FFS GG, you sound like my wife. Give us a break

'28 April Summary. Nice easy read'
Good summary. Lots of data in the appendices. Thanks for the post.

'Let's hope for a big blue tommorrow...'
47p close tommorrow imo