Member Info for Cesna

Should hear the outcome of the NEC merger by the statutory deadline 29th April, could be sooner. Another £62m reduction to debt?
'...the CMA’s investigation will focus on the nature of the merged NEC and Secure Solutions and Services businesses, as opposed to unwinding the transaction'
https://www.gov.uk/cma-cases/nec-software-solutions-uk-slash-capita-secure-solutions-and-services-merger-inquiry?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_source=67b0f8b5-3976-47c6-82e6-d9610f090c14&utm_content=immediately

Perhaps Woodfords CPI stock is already sold, being more liquid

'...more than £2bn has been returned to investors. But £141m remains invested in nine companies including Atom Bank and the battery manufacturer Nexeon.'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/investors-trapped-failed-neil-woodford-fund-may-not-see-cash/?msclkid=4ed496a6aa1e11ec812fa73050c5ff91

'In all my years, I have never been better off after a budget'

Whoever reduces my taxes, gets my vote

Crikey, its getting exciting.
Could the UT include MW short/ swap closed in total. Or a major purchase for the small cap index on Mondays open
Today, $3.5trillion options expiry across the markets (triple witching), not much makes sense in my portfolio today. Everything all over the place and no movement in total

'Its just a big wheel with the money already in it.'
Thats fair.
I guess the theory is liquidity tightens with interest rates rising, central bank balance sheets reducing (asset purchases) and results in efficient allocation of capital. That might slow the wheel down or remove the money within it?

*underlying

@voli.zh, yep seen the hi's and lo's a few times. 20p reminds me of the end of a cycle and beginning of another. Dont forget, all those assumptions about scientific improvement in the 15/ 20 year bids have come true with digitalisation. Think I might have worked for half a dozen different companies without moving my desk. In the meantime cost plus contracts will push revenue up and absolute margin (cash), and for a time, at the expense of absolute margin % imo. Weller did refer in the Q&A he had a sawtooth pattern ahead but will be throwing off lots of cash. Problem with long term contracts is they are lumpy and its really the underlying that important. Think CPI is now on the underling glide path up. Transformation is complete ;-)

Thanks Capitalizer. I worked in the industry in its infancy in 1980's. This is a tremendous opportunity and one for my kids. I hope to kick myself for not going in bigger

I'm getting all emotional about this stock. Just cant let go. Thats bad investing, isnt it?

In the Q&A it was stated the majority of contracts are protected from inflation but the growth forecast CPI gave did not include the indexation and cut in in different parts of the year ahead. If inflation runs at high % there could also be additional upside to revenue and operating margin reporting and a tail wind for cash....'There's quite a peak in terms of the timing in April and May, reflecting public sector year ends.'

https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej291/files/2022-03/FY21-Results-Webcast-Transcript-2022.pdf

Slide 14 shows the debt maturity profile and that all the hard work has been done? 2023 and 2024 is all about the cash conversion and that rude pipeline they reported imo

https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej291/files/2022-03/FY21-Results-Slides.pdf

Hi Kevin, I looked at page 13 and agree its hard work but if you look at page 15, it shows the bridge between adjusted operating profit and profit (loss) before tax.

So, profit before tax £93.5m is from £139.1m operating profit.

'to aid understanding of our underlying performance, adjusted operating profit and adjusted profit before
tax exclude a number of specific items, including significant restructuring, the amortisation and impairment of acquired
intangibles, including goodwill, and the impact of business exits' as follows:

£139.1m operating profit excludes the following items to get to your £86.6m reported operating profit
Amortisation and impairment of acquired intangibles (12.0)m
Impairment of goodwill (11.5)m
Litigation and claims 9.3m
Business exit (20.1)m
Contract-related provisions and impairments (43.1)
Significant restructuring (148.3)m

The assumption is that these adjustments are not recurring and we should look at £139.1m as a base for next years performance
aimo

'... the Group has performed a VIU assessment of Kenya asset following identification of triggers for impairment reversal. This resulted in an NPV significantly in excess of the book value of $255.2 million'

to take FID need to:
Receive and finalise an acceptable offer from 'the strategic partner'
Secure the governmental approvals
Obtain financing for the project and government deliverables

Think original IMF Kenya case was based on $80, oil crashed, TLW now hedged at c.$75 with lower cost pbl. Everything still on track. Rahuls options at 55p not till 2025

Hedges must be working in TLW favour on a day like today, surely?

is the phoenix sale a div or buyback?

Results were a positive improvement. I am still cautious of the ftse250 exit and MW short (decreasing)
The global economy may also surprise to the downside so I am cautious on the whole market, not just here.
But a good set of results and the +ve outlook is calibrated to cover historic drag on long term contracts. Great pipeline stats, cash conversion and revenue indexed linked to also cover quality incremental wages plus inflation. Debt reduced and will reduce again with cash received after year end. While there is likely to be a few trading opportunities, this could be a good longer term hold for a return to 45p or higher. Have previously bought at £3.70 so 22p seems cheap, but so did 29p last week.
The webcast is worth watching if you havent seen it.
GLA

Looks good longterm value to me and £0.5Bn capital buffer.

£0.3Bn phoenix to return to shareholders. Is this likely a buyback or could it be a special div?

LL, looks like Poly is candidate to exit ftse 100 so surely it cant be anything to do with that

LL, yes understand. I am just saying the market decided to impair £1.4Bn net assets and might be the ii acquisition which is c£1.5bn, vote for apprival when there is some paper to circularise lol
7%+ div and good performance and turnaround imo