RE: Nice and slow17 Sep 2023 00:38
Hi Mr S
Thank you for taking the time to outline your thoughts on share price scenarios. It demonstrates the complexity & estimations involved.
In my original post I was replying (4/9@9.52am) to a post by Elco (29/8@9.51am) which showed his calculations of £453,273,821 over 4 yrs which took into account the various costs. I then calculated the 6.93pps. Inadvertantly I used $ which of course make the EPS even greater -8.88ps
There are so many variables but in the main where we differ is the:
1) The price of spod now approx $3250
2) The price earnings ratio used.
3) The number of shares in issue
All of which can greatly affect the EPS.
1) It is difficult to foresee the price of Spod so it is not unreasonable to use the current price.
2)I feel the p/e ratio you use (5) is a little low as KOD is a growing co with potential & other resources. Also Markets are differently valued ie NY & London. I used an average p/e of 13.89 but the London Mining average is 7.5 but due to Kods potential I believe it should be valued more highly.
https://simplywall.st/markets/gb/materials/metals-mining
3) I have used the current count of 17BN but accept that with the issue to Hainan 19BN is likely.
All in all a price of 2.28pps for the first mine is in my opinion rather low.
I feel that Elcos figure of £108,108,455pa which takes into account costs is not unreasonable using the reasons above - $3250 per ton spod, 19BN shares & a p/e only of 10 this equates to a price of 5.72pence per share.
Although I do feel that a higher p/e is justified.
As I have said this is only conjecture & speculation with many variables but provided the deal goes thru,no problems, mine built,spod market holding up, producing,no war in Mali etc etc then I see a very good return.
Sign In
Follow the stocks
