Member Info for cbaron

I bought back in, but I'm still happy to top up lower levels, safe in the knowledge that this isn't really going to go anywhere anytime soon without substantive confirmation of a commercial, extractable find.
In terms of my posts today I'm simply painting a fuller picture than others' posts appear to be seeking to paint.

...correction 80% (from 4.5 to less than 1.0)

The last major drop was over 400% only 3 weeks ago!

07.58
....but let's be honest, whilst all of these tests may re-affirm potential, none can confirm a commercial find until flow tests and potentially further drilling is executed. This cannot now happen until 2022.

Bromb,
Is it my turn again at 10 past? Ha ha!

;-)

US down 9% in first 8 minutes.

09.31
Tony,
Whilst our verbose friend of yesterday was clearly on a mission to promote another stock, I agree that there were elements of his content worthy of note. His views on NPV, as opposed to sentiment and wild speculation were worthy - at least he had a go. All of the other commentary is based on mays, if, buts and potentially this, that or the other.
He makes a good point about the cost of extraction and comparable cost at the refinery gate - all very relevant.

DW introduced the comparison with PANR and rightly if there is synergy. Just a shame that our friend from the other stock became a little manic and overbearing in his justification.

I still believe this is a roulette wheel stock with an SP based on pure sentiment and little more. As a holder I count myself in this but would still warn the uninitiated as to the prospect of being spiked and marooned for a long period.

Good luck all, whatever your plan.

...two plays with almost identical geography and geology, known and acknowledged links, not yet known but suspected oil bearing strata and yet this board turns into a complete pi**ing contest.
It started earlier this afternoon with reasonable questions and descriptions of where we are now and where we might be - massive extrapolation on the latter point, I might add from the armchair oilies, and the whole thing has degenerated from what I took to be a very positive and enlightening forum, to CHAOS.
I think it's about time we all took a step back.... again!
Vitriol-breathing corporate dragons take note, but, in fairness, you're far from alone.

17.38
Light hearted?.......................Mmm?

Forgive me, I must have misunderstood. Ah, yes ............the barbs and the vitriol were actually "information/help".

Ddraig,

You are clearly a man who does not like to be questioned. If one of my team gave such rambling answers to simple questions, I would question their effectiveness.

Q1 - SP - you didn't answer the question.
Q2 - The Bean Counter - all you did was dive me a potted history of DW - you didn't answer the question.
Q3 - Takeover - Thank you, an answer but veiled in superfluous nonsense. "Why would I care?". Because it will fairly obviously impact Q1 and therefore any investment decision.
Q4 - Low Ball Punt - The answer was really in the question, but you got their in the end. A healthy admission that you "could always be wrong". Well done. There is hope for you.
Q5 - "Everything about Everything" - This, of course, was a wind up and appears to have hit the sweet spot.

My critique would be that you ought to answer the questions (in good examination fashion), be more concise and not ramble off into the superfluous.

A fair attempt, if tainted by a little vitriol.

Finally, I know what I know and openly acknowledge that I do not know everything - that's the way to learn!

Fri 18.02
Ddraig,
Development Director in Property Industry - so not far off the mark. My site DD and SI work is comprehensive and I know how to interpret the results. Yes, there are many questions and I make a point of developing a plan. Oil exploration is not my bag and, yes, more questions than answers. Can you answer any of them?
What is your take on the likely SP trend? What is your take on DW leaving and being replaced by a bean counter? What do you think is the likelihood of the company being taken over? If it is highly likely, might it be before or after any further drilling or will someone take a low-ball punt?
If you don't consider the relevant questions and options how can you possibly determine a plan.
My questions are all relevant to how an investor might approach this business right now.
I'm not looking for answers per se, just considering relevant matters and balancing likely risk to determine when and if to sell or invest.
Sorry if it wasn't helpful to you. Do you know everything about everything?

Looks like we're in the doldrums for the short to medium term and it appears sensible to assume that the SP will continue to retrace.
Clearly, there is evidence that makes the company confident that Merlin was the best drill yet, but that is not exactly set against set against a history of major successes. There appears to be oil there, but is it commercially viable to extract?
We await some more results to confirm or deny the extent of oil, but it is clear that further exploration work will be required next winter, to confirm or otherwise. It seems inevitable that this will require a cash raise of some description. Will this offset any upside? Yes, most definitely, if results confirmed from this year and next year's further work demonstrate a commercial find. If no, then where does 88e go from here?
The potential upside may come if the results from this year are good and a suitor may be sufficiently interested in taking the company out - but at what price? We are still in speculative territory as to the commerciality and this will almost certainly dent he offer price.
As to questions about our finance man leading the company? He'll be needed to negotiate a sale and a cash raise. The question is, who will lead the further exploration strategy in DW's absence. One might read into the appointment that 88e don't envisage any more exploration. Why not? Has a suitor already been identified?
All conjecture, of course, and more questions than answers.
Good luck, whatever your take.

How a bout this for a theory?
He got caught on a spike he potentially helped create by his ramping and suddenly became a long term holder........by necessity!!!

"In and Out"

Realism79's true colours at last!

For anyone minded to believe his ramping nonsense - take stock! You'll end up like the heads on the spikes at the Tower of London.

DW leaving to go to new oily (almost certainly) who might have an interest in acquiring 88e at some point in order that DW can pick up where he left off. His new employer would have to pay considerably more if Merlin was a commercial success........but, oh dear, the drill broke and it now can't be proved.......yet?!

Call me an old cynic but...........

Thankfully, I got out alive on Thursday afternoon after battling back from buying on the spike of DW's last failure. Good luck to all whether in profit or snagged.

On the positive side, there does appear to be hydrocarbon presence but it will take time to validate. Downside is that there will be greater future costs in funding a further drill and likely greater dilution to realise the cash to do so.

Rfarfa,

A bit like Boris?
Some might say that he's gone through the whole Covid issue bouncing from one crisis to another with failed timelines deadlines and promises, yet manages to pull the genie out of the bottle at the end with vaccines. At what cost along the way?
A life saver ultimately for some, possibly, but how many have perished along the way.
Don't try to spout from some self-perceived industry expert high ground which has dodgy foundations.

The Event,

C'mon man.
I feel like throwing up at this sickly sentiment.
The guy has been playing with your hard earned cash for many years......and not very well at that!
He and your dodgy investment strategy is more than likely for your loss of follicles, but now he's a hero?
Really?
I'd wait until Tuesday before you get too carried away.
I'm invested here by the way and have been caught in the last two wells too.
I hope that this one is the real deal but would caution against a potential change in your sentiment were this not to happen.

Sushi,
This is utter nonsense set to mislead the unwary and presumably assist in lining your own pockets. You must be in quite a hole. You keep telling us you've been buying and buying and all that's happened is that the price is continuing to fall, as most of us expected on the absence of positive news and without likelihood in the short to medium term. The TEO extension period to the end of 2021 is likely to be used up in full and, on the basis of past experience, more than!

Having seen all of this before with this company, we're now hardened to the truth. This RNS does nothing other than put us on warning that little or nothing will happen anytime soon and whilst I'm not a chartist, I wholly agree with Geng's sentiment on where the price will go in the short to medium term. Shares will be sold and, possibly, picked up again later, much later.

The new dates take us months and years out and I can see no reason why the company would change its spots and deliver ahead of any deadlines - it hasn't to date.

All of the bulls**t about SP increases in the near term is nonsense unless you want to tie up money in a falling, or at best break even price. Why tie up cash under those circumstances when nothing's going to happen to improve the price anytime soon. I'm stuck and so have no choice, resolved to the fact that my investment is only ever likely to be redeemed if the company ultimately succeeds.

I take a few warnings from the RNS about the potentially limited market for this company. Russia or those familiar with working there are likely to be the only likely bidders. Not a surprise, but you're hearing it from the horses mouth. Similar comments about whether it will be western or Russian based funding streams. Again, no surprise. This will limit attractiveness and bidders and unless something changes, my view is that you can forget the Glencores and definitely the Tesla's of this world being remotely interested as they won't be allowed to get anywhere near the table.

As to the board and the Covid excuse, this is a God send to them. Contrary to many of the supportive comments, what is the rest of the world doing to continue to trade and to adapt, how are world economies surviving? Where there's a will there's a way. In our case the 'will' is missing.

Carry on kicking the can....................