RE: Remember the potatoes...7 May 2021 14:20
Tony,
For me the SP is dependant on
1. provable
2. quantifiable
3. extractable
In relation to 1, I feel certain that the results will take us to this point. As to 2, there have been suggestions that this will be significant and the comparisons with Prudhoe Bay are exciting. As to 3, its about technology and methodologies, which may differ at the different intervals.
Clearly, a flow test will not be able to be carried out until next winter and so the absolute answer to 3 may not be known until then - Bynari's comparison with other fields of similar geology may be the means by which there is sufficient confidence in the forthcoming results as to make a significant difference, even without waiting for the flow test - those better versed in oil exploration may disagree with this and it may just be wishful thinking on my part. I'm happy to be corrected.
So, as to SP 1 + 2 may leave us with a small increase, pending 3.
If 1+2+3, without flow test then a significant re-rate which will depend on sensible NPV using conservative volumes derived from 2. Also depends whether or not a producer steps in with a buy-out bid and that will govern price.
After flow tests, assuming they are successful, then we have an extractable viable resource of high grade oil and the world could be our oyster, especially if volumes any where near comparable with Prudhoe are provable, not forgetting that we are next to TAPS. values will be multiples of where we are now - but just how many?
The downside and a possible re-trace may happen if the results are lukewarm and we need to wait until further proving of the resource next winter, though this seems unlikely based on the information to hand.
Just my own thoughts.