Member Info for CaveatEmptor

True - but anybody buying-in in 2-3 weeks time is very likely to have to pay a lot more than 8p imho. Looks like our time may at last be coming?

The way I read it is, we are back in full production mode with oil and gas flowing through the sales meters, so we are now a producer with continuous production and revenue - just awaiting final flow information, due to be published following completion of clean up. - Can't see much here to worry about. Should see a return of confidence IMO. Interesting January ahead... GLA

Good discussion and a question which is close to all our hearts. Not entirely sure there is a simple answer - but I am happy to share my personal opinion, for what it's worth. Looks to me like I-1 is likely to produce around 200 boed at an average price of $90 per barrel - this figure takes into consideration both oil and gas flow. If we allow for 335 operational days per year ( allowing for one month each year for maintenance works) this gives total annual production of a little over $6M of which our net revenue would be a little over a million dollars. By my reckoning that woulld put us into operational profit from day one...However any profits made would be used to fund development of the field so as to minimise dilution. The next three planned wells were originally planned for completion in 2013 - but the inevitable delays experienced by I-1 due to weather etc probably means that a more realistic time scale is 18 months to 2 years (Hence the requirement for a 3 year SEDA). So lets say another 3 wells by the beginning of 2015. This would mean we will get one well each 8 months and if each well produces the same as I-1 then we would need about $1.5M funding for I-2, $1M for I-3 and $0.5m for I-4. This makes a total funding requirement of $3m The funding requirement of these wells will be covered by the SEDA. so will result in equity dilution - the exact amount will be dependent on the SP during the drilling programme, so this funding would IMO produce about 15%-20% total dilution over the whole period. but from 2015 onwards we should then be making over $3m a year net profit and our market cap should be in the region of £18m or 52p per share. This would leave about $5M in the SEDA available for acqisition or further development over the next three years. How much value this will add to the market cap would depend entirely on how it is spent and the value of assets it brings to the party - that is the unpredictable and therefore, for me, fun part of owning this share. With our immediate drilling programme fully funded and first oil production just around the corner, I am very comfortable being invested in this share. If I-1 produces significantly more than 200 boed then that will be better still and my estimate of market cap would increase accordingly. My personal view is that I-1 is unlikely to flow at less than 200 boed once we get onto a size 7 choke - but even if it drops to 150 boed ( considerably less than initial rates already measured on a 6/64 choke) then I am still looking at a very reasonable return on my investment over the medium to long term (luckily I do not have urgent need of the cash and am happy to let it run) - so the way I see it is that I really can't lose. But please remember that this is just a personal view - nothing beats doing your own research and coming to your own conclusions. ATB -CE

MMs looking for shares to fill an order?

Just re-read my post and see it may be open to misinterpretation - I didn't mean to imply that one action is any more correct than the other as any options are equally valid. I meant to say that we all trade according the the research we have done and the conclusions we have drawn from it. The choice whether to buy, hold or sell a particular stock is entirely our own and no-one, me least of all, has a right to criticise another investor's actions. ATB- CE

Depends on how you look at it - mi would say that the revenue stream has been delayed, not lost. Eventual returns form the well will be the same, regardless of when production is started. Interesting that you think of pipeline repairs as being a 'balls up' - I wonder what your verdict would be if someone had actually made a mistake? Those comfortable with investing in SLME will probably buy at this reduced price and those that have itchy feet will probably sell. Welcome to the stock market!

I guess we're used to delays here - Let's hope Exxon make a good job of it so that it'll be a while before the next repair is needed. I guess that we can console ourselves with the fact that the delay is not costing us anything and it is not due to anything SLME has control over. Hence basic position has not changed and I managed to pick up a few shares at below 8p - so at least something good came out of it! LOL I am still confident that, once we are up and running, we will be very pleased with the production rate and hence our revenue. Also if, like this one, all the planned wells turn out to be oil wells instead of gas then we are due for a significant asset upgrade in 2013 so it should prove to be a pretty good year for us - ATB, CE

Should read 12%!

Is this an overdue price correction or is there news due?

Festina lente, hic sunt dracones - caveat emptor - CE.

Looks like the MMs have been having fun and games here today on low volumes. But makes no difference for those willing to be long term holders whether 3p, 4p or even 6p is paid IMO. Day traders are used to getting their fingers burnt (and making profits in between!) so they deserve to have a little fun too. GLA - CE

Good point on director deals. However , as you know,director optimism is no guarantee of market confidence. The market just isn't fair at the moment - but it will get better. Under-valued shares are being re-rated every day and SAC's time will come. ATB - CE

On the up - Shhh, don't say anything - maybe no one will notice! LOL - CE

It may not be your intention, but it does seem like you want to question Bunny's charting skills for some reason. We all know that charting is an inprecise science but Bunny has had a good record in calling the shots - so why focus on one share as a means to discredit her when she has obviously made a very creditable profit ? I would like to understand your motivation - but find it difficult to work-out at the moment. Please help. - CE

Buys outstripping sells by almost 4 to 1 on over £125k of trades - very nice! -CE

Well perforation RNS could come by the end of August - followed by flow testing data later next month. Good news will see us fly - RNS could be perfectly timed to take advantage of changing market sentiment IMO. GLA.

Don't 'wake anybody: Operations have commenced on the work-over of the Zagoryanska 1 well on the Zagoryanska licence also in eastern Ukraine. A work-over drilling unit will be mobilized to the location during the first week of August 2011 to undertake perforation and testing operations, which are expected to be completed by end of Q3 2011. That means news by the end of next month -Watch out - someone may make a lot of money here if we're not careful! CE

The news is very,very good - transformational even as is secures future income and frees up capital to continue with development of existing assets without resorting to fund raising or dilution for current stock holders. Additional cash of up to $90m is also very much on the cards and this would set us up for the forseeable future. We are all here to make profit so we can only congratulate those that are happy with the profit they've made so sell out . The fundimentals are unchanged by short term opportunism and those that choose to hold on will win out in the long run IMO. - BMD's other investment in his challenge is SLE - not much luck there at the moment so I guess he has to take profit wherever he can. Good luck to him. My guess is that he will regret not holding on for another few weeks. As the analysts factor in this news over the next few days I can see a steady rise rather than massive spikes - a good thing as far as I'm concerned - it's better for my heart!!! Good luck. CE

What news - wrong board?

Agreed on both counts. At least the dip offered an opportunity to top up - I filled my boots - With fundimentals like these CAD was always going to recover :-) Ian Baron and Philip Dayer make a good team - one a brilliant strategist and the other very savvy when it comes to converting reserves into cash. A great combination for building value into the company. Let's not forget that CAD broke into an opperating profit the year after Baron became CEO. With the de-risking of the company assets and cash available for further exploration I believe that the net asset value per share could easily double this year to around the 70p mark - This could result in a huge profit and make CAD a very attractive investment for the Majors. The future looks good but keep it to yourself - I like a civilised bb. All the best CE.