Member Info for CaveatEmptor

Well, a company that is well down the path to making over £2.5M net profit a year for at least 10 years does look very undervalued at an MC of £4.0M

However, being well down the path does not mean having arrived, there is still plenty of the journey to go, but at least now the path seems to be paved.

With a minimum net income of £2.5M, as stated above, a realistic discounted MC would be about £20M, or a little over 6p.

The big question is just how much more likely is it that we can complete the journey now that the path has been paved? Even if there is only a 50% chance of success that would put the current discounted NPV at £10M, or a little over 3p a share.

I personally believe that there is now a greater than 50% chance of finishing the Manica journey, so I would not be surprised to see 3p in the coming months.
However, I do not decide the SP, the market does, and we all know how fickle she is!

The above does not take our copper plays into account and, as has already been said, these could be even more interesting in the medium term.
At long last I think I can honestly say that truly exciting times are in store for all those invested here.

GLA.

Big finish - could close on a 3 month high?

SP 1.25...

Auction!

With buys outstripping sells by 2:1 the MMs may have to take drastic steps to gather shares - brace yourselves. Just remember: What doesn't kill you makes you stronger...

An 18% rise without any ramping on this BB - could it be down to the company's own merits? - Surely not! LOL

Good morning Bob, I hope you are well and that you had a good voyage assuming, of course, you are not still at sea?

I guess there is not an awful lot to discuss until the next update, which will hopefully be this month, and that is the reason for such a sedate board at the moment?

ATB.

Unless you are omniscient, I guess that is a certainty lol.

So, another little tick-up to keep us happy - we may even end the day at 1p, with a following wind?

The one thing that those who follow XTR closely will know is that any alluvial result, good, mediocre or bad is in the lap of the Gods. Production rate has increased and average grades have reduced due to the contractor being forced to process all the material rather than just cherry picking - the ongoing average result should be mediocre production that consistently produces a small operating profit, but over a much longer production period. So, over all, much more contribution to XTR .

First real income/ overall company profit will come with the gravity processing of hard rock from Guy Fawkes in Q4. This will be much more and reliable production that will inevitably result in a re-rate in the SP.

The main question, IMO, is will investors wait for the rise and then jump in for the ride, or get in before it and maximise profit?
The answer to this question will determine the short term SP IMHO.

With many shares any planned news is partially built into the SP weeks or even months before the event, but XTR is not like most shares, so could go either way - either a slow build up to news in Q3 or wait for the chickens to hatch then a massive spike in SP.

It will be interesting to see which way it goes...

I also went to the AGM, but reading the posts here am not sure it was the same one as everybody else on this BB.

What I took away from the meeting was:

This is not a company for retail investors that want the SP to multi bag any time soon.

This is a company that has compounds based on sound science and it will take at least a year before we even get a smell of monitisation for 201. That is when shareholders will be rewarded.

201 is the only compound whose development is not currently largely funded by 3rd party partners. And is the only compound likely to offer solid clinical results in the medium term.
Current cash burn is about 80k per month.
Current CIB is 250k.
Expecting income by the end of July of 700k, including 50k VAT rebate and 150k wind fall.
So a out a year of funding at current cash burn.

Current analysis of 201 results likely to result in a new partner to help funding moving forward. Additional funds will still need to be raised by VAL to fund this stage. Next stage likely to be slow as, although now able to trial more than one patient at a time, each patient has to give up conventional medication to take part in the trial and this takes more courage than most people already suffering with cancer can muster...

My personal opinion is that the BOD needs to engage more support from organisations able to convince GPs to make more referrals if the next stage is to be sped up.

AIMPO.

Hello JDAU,

If those figures are correct then there is about 2 years hard rock production and over $7M net payment to XTR based on Guy Fawkes alone.

The sooner the better as far as I'm concerned...

The Guy Fawkes deposit is about 1,350m long and 120m deep (that's almost a mile long and 400ft deep for those that can remember pre-metric measurements).
So plenty to be going on with...

Although, for many good reasons, we tend to concentrate on Fair Bride when we think of hard rock production, it is a good idea to keep in mind that our near term income will come from the low hanging fruit and the exploration drills at Guy Fawkes has shown that deposit to be 'dripping' with it.

So our first stable substancial income stream is set to be courtesy of the original gunpowder plotter himself! Somehow seems like poetic justice?

CB explained at the AGM that there were three distinct strata of gold deposits. The top layer has the easy to get at gold, there is then a transition layer leading down to the sulphides layer.

Recovery rates vary across the various strata between 95% and a little under 60% so I would guess that 80% is a pretty good average to take for our calculations...

Hello Andrew, maybe this time next year at least one of those luxuries could be yours...

CB did say that the contractors were aiming for 2.6g and 90% recovery but that he preferred to use 2.2g and 80% as he was happy that we could consistently achieve those levels.

I think we will be selling unrefined condensate from the main hard rock processing - but I could be wrong.

I got the impression at the AGM that CB was allowing for a low-ball figure, but even that would indicate an SP of over 6p. Maybe he has decided to under promise to allow plenty of headroom for over performance? Would certainly make for a refreshing change IMO.

ATB.

Hello Andrew,

Was in a hurry and did not refer to my notes.

Full details, as used at the AGM were as follows:

POG= $1,400.00, Less15% discount for sale of dore bars = $1,190.00, less $500.00 production costs leaves a net price of $690.00.

40,000 tonnes processed each month at 2.2g and 80% recovery rate (these were the 'in house' figures used by CB) gives about 2,200 oz per month.

2,200 x 690 = $1,518,000 profit per month. Our 23% comes to $349,140. This represents two shipments to Dubai at a cost of $17,000 per shipment so net cash to XTR is about $315,000 per month.

CB said this represented about $3M net profit per year, over a 10yr LOM gives an NPV of about $30M. ( This was the $30M alluded to by H5O)

ATB.

Running the figures based on 400tph throughput 20 hours per day and 2.6g/t with 90% recovery rate,15% discount to POG and 7.5% transportation costs then a net monthly payment to XTR is more likely to be in the region of $300,000.
Still not to be sniffed at...

If the directors wanted to back the company don't you think they would participate in a placing so that the cash would go to the company rather than buying shares on the open market?

Not sure those three trades were all genuine- even for one of them to be a true purchase it would mean the MMs getting their hands on 60 million shares and where would they come from?

Many thanks, Roses.

Sounds like thy expect to be in a position to make pivotal decisions on 201 in the very short term.

That could mean an early stage a sale or progression to the next clinical phase.

I will certainly try to find out what is meant by "very short term" at the AGM - be it weeks, months or years...

ATB