Member Info for Catbert

Agree Gary.

Also, I think the market will be shocked by the upcoming exploration target that will be set for Mushima North.

My own predictions have this set conservatively at low 10's Mt.

We have reasonably wide and consistent interceptions of mineralisation which makes predicting a resource relatively straight forward.

The point here isn't so much the exploration target which might not do anything to the share price it will be the MRE which this will imply and therefore the NAV which will be implied that will be the surprise to some (I'm sure many here have already worked out these numbers or their own estimates).

Based on nothing more that the work schedules and the changes to the work schedules for Mushima North and it becomes clear that the company already see this as their flagship project.

Thanks nibj, let's hope they don't take too much longer to do this.

Nibj did they indicate that they intended to make a more public announcement?

That is what's needed.

For Elphick to go ahead one assumes that he thought this was the right choice to make.

I would like to know why but we may never know.

Either way he has staked a lot on Red Arc coming through with the goods or for the entire gambit to draw out another buyer.

Whatever happens this is proceeding towards FEED completion come what may.

We would have had the discussion or negotiation on what read through we'd get on the completed project at some point or other.

This way any true incoming strategic knows exactly what they are getting and what position we'll be taking.

Zanaga PI's getting 12.5% plus a .5% royalty is not a disaster- I know we were lead to think that we'd be getting .3 of the Nav but here the reality is that without a feasible route to achieve the FEED and a FID this was never the case.

We have some very long term holders here but I doubt there are any here who have held for as long as Elphick.

In all honesty without having the money to build the thing our negotiating position on this free carry % point wasn't ever really that strong. Stopping the project risked not progressing it and most likely the Chinese buyers all aligned to stay out as that might have force the CB government to revoke the licences on non progression grounds as they did with Sundance and yet as it is the FEED is being done and progress is being made.

Plus the CB government has to get it's free carry too so that leaves less for the parties paying in the bulk of the monies.

Red Arc know that to get their return this thing has to be built. Red Arc might also be a way to get CB elites and Chinese alignment as they can get anonymous read through on the project if they participate as holders of private equity.

The idea that Red Arc are somehow going to rob us of the remainder is unfounded nonsense.

There are various sizable and significant holders here still Gupta, Guava for example, plus others all of whom have got the same deal that we have.

GLA / DYOR

Same. I messaged them and no reply here either.

My amateur observations of negative news on these sorts of shares is that the sulking process usually takes about 8 days to work through.

Those who have massively got the hump will have either sold or the price will have tanked enough for the share to look cheap enough to prompt another cycle of greed to begin.

It is part of Catbert's general theory of life which states that things are never as bad nor as good as you think they are.

No surprise with the relentlessly negative diatribes we're seeing here.

Kirkegaard's solution to the absurdity of life is acceptance.

This share needs new holders to recover and it won't get those if this board turns into an unremitting whingefest.

It's an opportunity for new investors and for those who came before, I'm one, just suck it up.

Probably a better marker is the 11p a share value of the tranche 2 payment plus whatever you assign as a value per share for the $50m plus the remaining .5% of the royalty.

Net of the retained royalty which would be worth several hundred million $ once operating the $125 plus the $50 m is worth 14.4p per share, so 15p is not too far off but maybe 11p is a safer number.

6p is a good entry point now but unfortunately most like me have already bought in higher than this.

Although its annoying for LTHs, this is a fairly sure thing for new entrants.

With such a monumental transformation one would have expected some PR and for our Directors to be actively promoting the share and articulating what a great deal it is that we've signed and why that is the case.

They are conspicuous by their absence and this is another indication of where their true loyalties lie.

I'm not going to exit. I was hoping that we'd sign a strategic rather than sign a middle man who was going to sign a strategic. But here we are, what we'd imagined is no longer real. That's life. There's less of an upside and Elphick seems to have capitulated somewhat and maybe we'll find out why eventually, but there's still an upside so let's presume that he's a rational actor and that he still has all of his faculties.

I don't blame all of the legends for being greedy and self serving. They were not Directors of ZIOC, they serve themselves and no doubt there are many here who would gladly loosen their front teeth for them but that wont help anyone.

By June 2027 this is at least 11p plus the royalty. Most likely it gets taken out for quite a lot more.

On the FID, if the project goes ahead with a 30mtpa pipeline which is quite likely then we'll be in a pretty good position, maybe not the one we imagined but a good position nonetheless.

The initial payments come in $5m tranches so if another buyer comes in we'd still have most of the equity in Jumelles to play with.

the 15p share‑for‑**************, only applies if ram hasn’t completed the full tranche schedule within the specified timings. instead of giving the money back whatever rams has paid in so far is covered by this clause it doesn't put a ceiling on the price of the share.

most likley rams are going to get this past fid and flip it or create and manage the build consortium themselves. otherwise it gets taken out by someone else during the build if not before. most of the people who'd want it would want it with completed feed.

To do this deal with RAM only makes sense if RAM can 100% come up with the money to build the entire thing.

If they can, I'm happy with the deal.

Taking this level of a haircut only makes sense if Elphick et al believe 100% that the money is there and that subject to a positive FID this is proceedable .

What reassurances do we have of this?

Hi Longfell . I agree that it was deplorable behaviour to set and manage our expectations in a way that was so radically out of line with the deal they did. However I don't agree that we should expect a free carry of near 50% for many reasons. Indeed until March 25 50% would have been fantasy.

Even half that would have been a good deal and consider too that the government get 10% free carry anyway. This is a large, complex project in a jurisdiction that's not risk free.

I was hoping for 20%, 12.5% is not so good however the royalty is worth a lot. I think they will sell their re-bought .5% for a lot more than $50m.

The resource is at least three times what is stated. Royalty companies are worth multiples in the 30 to 40x so even if they just hand back the 11p and we take no further part the royalty is worth 100's of millions. Chances are however that they do participate in the project we'll be valued at 12.5% of NAV on production that's maybe £1.2Bn plus the royalty?

It's not actually a complete disaster.

Extrader. Full Metal Jacket reference.

Not sure yet GGG. I'm waiting for this afternoon's details.

Theoretically this should recover into the 8-11p range in short order.

The project is still being derisked and is still progressing towards FID.

Today has witnessed an understandably emotional reaction and yet we do still have an upside albeit not at the scale previously imagined.

Probably the biggest issue here is that of trust or lack thereof because the board has agreed such a poor deal with RAM.

Selling today makes no sense at all.

Getting to FID is a significant opportunity to re-rate.

I'm not cleaning and oiling "Charlene" yet.

GGG

A class action for unfair prejudice in BVI approximately $250,000 cost but maybe we can get a no win no fee deal.

If RAM doesn’t complete Tranche Two and ZIOC forces an exchange of RAM’s project stake into ZIOC equity, that exchange is fixed at 15 p per ZIOC share, implying an equity valuation of about £125m for ZIOC at that point.

DYOR i.e. check my numbers.

11p for tranche 2 but hopefully we use the money to buy the 12.5%.

Hopefully someone does gatecrash this as I cannot see how RAM can represent the best route to build and finance a project of this sort.

They are not a mine operator, they have no political influence in country -they are simply a group of financial chancers who appear to have made stunning use of their inside contacts in ZOIC to engineer a deal which benefits themselves considerably more than it does ZIOC shareholders.

The deal is the bare minimum to give a fighting chance to the argument that no unfair prejudice has taken place. But IMHO I believe that it has.

It wouldn't surprise me if the deal with a true strategic isn't done by them directly. All the while our own BOD have simulated the perception that they were the ones doing this - and yet it was always a ruse. Or so it seems.

AT's involvement with the Greymont deal was always questionable from a conflict of interests perspective given that his own father was part of this group and presumably AT is a beneficiary of his father's estate and thus indirectly a beneficiary of any gains made by Greymont.

He is also a business partner of Sir Mick. Again a conflict of interest IMHO.

We don't have a partner here who has the money to develop the project, they will need to raise it. A board loyal to it's own shareholders would have pursued this avenue themselves.

On the plus side there is a potential financial uplift with this deal. I like the royalty but I don't like the repurchase element. It seems we've been incredibly weak in negotiating this but given that Mitchell and AT appear to be working to further their own interests via Greymont, this comes as no surprise.

It does make me wonder if Elphick has either gone soft in the head or he has been offered a deal of his own on some RAMs shares.

The deal is based on the concentrate and not the pellet produced. Indeed there is literally nothing in the agreement which seems to show that any strength has been applied on behalf of the shareholders of ZIOC during negotiations.

Fortunately the prize is so gigantic that even 12.5% and a .5% royalty might be worth a considerable sum at the end of this journey, if we get there.

We are up an running with this deal, but only because we appear to have set fire to our own trousers.

AIMHO/ DYOR/ GLA / One day Rodney.......

They have form for this sort of thing.

See last year's RNS ;

"2 Jan 2025 14:55

RNS Number : 9711R

Zanaga Iron Ore Company Ltd

02 January 2025

2 Jan 2025

Announcement of Planned Corporate Update and London Investor Event

Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited ("ZIOC" or the "Company") (AIM: ZIOC) is pleased to announce that the Company intends to provide an update to shareholders on the Company's strategic partner process whilst also providing further information on the Zanaga Iron Ore Project's development plans.

As a result of the planned corporate update the Company will be hosting an event in London on Tuesday 11 February 2025 to provide a briefing to its shareholders (the "Investor Event").

More detailed information on the Investor Event will be announced shortly."

They bumped the event into March. In this case "shortly" was several weeks.

Hopefully tomorrow is still happening.