Member Info for Catbert

we're not investing in what might have been or what could have been but what is.

i for one am okay with the raise. yes, i'd have preferred we didn't do it this way but imho the chancery deal was very expensive.

getting this over the line is the crucial thing. nobody can predict what trump is going to do- not even trump himself.

in light of his "epic fury" escapade which is known in my household as "trumpy's tantrum" harry was right to do this raise imho.

nobody could foresee these events, nobody knows what's going to happen next. best not to f about in these situations imho.

the safest move was to make sure the finance for tk was over the line. which barring any last minute lunacy it is.

the dilution isn't good but if gold prices continue to move upwards and if the resource can be expanded both will cancel out any downside.

harry had his hand forced by events and yet the fact that this was so oversubscribed even in the midst of trump's historically destabilizing rage ****** seems lost on most people.

trump opens the gates of hell and harry can still raise £35m for tk surely that shows how good the investment is.

gla/ dyor

Https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tertiary-minerals-silver-exploration-target-defined-zambia-long-qxrze/

Prove the continuity and the metallurgy and we have something which at the upper end of the estimate range of 58 Moz of silver equivalent is worth $4.1Bn in value based on metal in the ground. The deposit appears to extend in multiple directions and potentially at depth too. Added to which A1 is one of a number of targets they have identified.

GLA/DYOR

tertiary’s mushima north a1 target is an interesting early‑stage discovery with scale potential, but it is still very high risk and many steps away from demonstrating real economic value for equity investors.

the a1 exploration target is 15–30 mt at 40–60 g/t ageq, implying an upper conceptual end of ~58 moz ageq in situ.

mineralisation is a flat‑lying, near‑surface oxide/supergene tabular body, roughly 500 m x 300 m and up to 75 m thick, open to the northwest, southwest and at depth.

it is polymetallic: silver, copper and zinc (plus accessory critical metals in places), but the economics are framed around a silver‑equivalent grade.

metallurgy is a complete unknown: no testwork has been done; ageq assumes full recoveries and uses aggressive metal prices (ag 75 usd/oz, cu 5.8 usd/lb, zn 1.45 usd/lb), which may overstate the economic significance of the quoted grades.

the system is currently interpreted as secondary supergene enrichment with an undefined primary source: if the feeder zone at depth is not economically mineralised, the oxide blanket may have limited tonnage/grade the exploration target is an estimation of this.

the system is open in multiple directions and at depth, and there are several other untested geochemical/geophysical targets (a2, b1–b3, c2) within a 12 km radius, giving regional upside if the model is proved.

the project is in a known iocg/sed‑hosted cu‑ag district, 20–28 km from the historic, high‑grade kalengwa mine (11% cu ore historically), which is under re‑development and expected to produce ~15 kt cu per year, indicating an established mining corridor and precedent infrastructure/permitting path.

drilling density is still reconnaissance level; the “****geneity” and continuity assumed in the block model could deteriorate with tighter spacing, reducing tonnes/grade relative to the current conceptual envelope.

if both infill drilling and metallurgy are clearly positive a1 becomes a legitimate development‑stage asset with a defined oxide ag‑cu‑zn resource and a line of sight to scoping study economics.

the equity case shifts from “maybe there is something here” to “there is definitely a resource here; the key question is how big and how economic.”

mushima north is potentially a material discovery for a small aim explorer, giving genuine optionality if a 20–30 mt oxide resource at robust ageq grade can be defined and metallurgically proven.

my guess is that we stay under the radar for a little longer.

once they start reporting on the first few drills we'll have an idea of the continuity quite quickly. the drilling to date has already shown good levels of continuity- the infill will just close the gaps and boost certainty to a levels required to begin resource definition.

i'm not sure the market cares that much right now but it seems that the boss is pretty keen judging by his interview. interesting times.

i look forward to the first drill results.

gla/ dyor

How much do you trust AT and MK?

On a scale of 1-10

With 1 being a full on snakes and 10 being saintly and utterly beyond reproach.

Hi Twincamcortina,

I believe that it does still apply as per the document linked below.

In 2017, Tertiary Minerals plc signed a fluorspar marketing MOU with Possehl Erzkontor GmbH & Co. KG, explicitly described as a “wholly owned subsidiary of CREMER”

From public documents:

The counterpart named in the MOU is “Possehl Erzkontor GmbH & Co. KG (‘Possehl’), a wholly owned subsidiary of CREMER”.

Later, that same legal entity is renamed CREMER ERZKONTOR GmbH & Co. KG; the press releases present this as a name and branding change, not a transfer of assets to a different legal person.

In normal German and English contract practice a mere change of company name does not terminate or novate contracts; they continue with the same legal entity under its new name.

Because Possehl Erzkontor was already wholly owned by CREMER at the time of the MOU, CREMER’s later decision to rebrand the subsidiary to CREMER ERZKONTOR would not, by itself, void an existing MOU.

So, as far as public information goes, the MOU would continue to bind the same company (now called CREMER ERZKONTOR), unless the MOU itself contained termination or change‑of‑control provisions that have been triggered or the parties have since agreed to end/replace it.

https://www.tertiaryminerals.com/downloads/Tertiary%20Minerals%20plc%20-%20RNS%20-%20Tertiary%20Minerals%20Partners%20with%20Large%20Global%20Commodities%20Trading%20Group%20-%2029%20November%202017.pdf

Interesting. However the MOU is non binding. Nonetheless its existence does perhaps show that Cremer may be open to signing a binding term sheet.

Furthermore as they would have spent a serious amount of time on agreeing the original MOU and the market for the product is stronger now than it was in 2017 so the existence of the MOU is certainly encouraging.

Dofmeister, Mushima North is the one that I'm really excited about. A conservative number would be 5-10mt yet it could be 10-30mt plus without looking crazy and considering that they cannot include any sulphide zone yet the scope to upgrade the exploration target is huge.

If they drill and prove a consistent sulphide zone with decent continuity it's a x5-x20 uplift.

My guess is that we must have already had some JV discussions as any potential partner must be aware that with a sulphide zone this has the scope to be a large mine.

Most likely the silver grades will tail off at depth however there is a theoretical case for gold in a sulphide zone and most likely higher copper grades too. We wont know until we drill it. Even though silver prices have pulled back of late these are still a long way ahead of their levels a year or so ago and whilst the paper market has added confusion on silver's prices it is clear that demand is strong and supply restricted.

A decent sized non Mexican silver asset might be a popular development project for a lot of miners. We might have got lucky with our timing on this one.

GLA / DYOR

If they sold it with a mining permit on current prices for Feldspar estimate a sale value of $20-60m based on a NAV (8%) of $100m, they might get $100m if they are lucky i.e. in a competitive bidding situation.

It's a big score if it comes in. Personally I'm not too hopeful as the history hasn't been great but its possible.

It's a great jurisdiction once you've got the permitting.

If it's another "no" then hopefully they will get some guidance on how to square things with the Reindeer herders.

Having Lycopodium building the mine (lead contractor) is a massive reassurance. They are not known for late delivery of projects and one would imagine that Harry will have built in some wriggle room into the schedule to ensure a positive outcome as some elements like road building and grid tie are outside of the control of Kefi or it's contractors.

The forecasters post Iran are suggesting a range between $4500-$8000. It's quite a large range but no serious commentator is suggesting $3000 gold.

The 200 day moving average is $4400 which is roughly where we are today and today we are in a war situation with the straits of Hormuz shut just in case anyone needed to be reminded.

Most Gold miners pre Iran conflict were valued at Gold in the $3000-$3500 range.

We get inflation prints for USA and EU at the end of March if these are above 2.5% this is very bullish for Gold IMHO.

The war has cost an extra $200Bn so far and that's just for a couple of weeks. Oil and gas price rises read straight through to inflation numbers. The politicians will blame Trump and the war but the inflation was there already. If the closure of the Straits of Hormuz creates a supply side shock too this will add pressure to the inflationary situation.

If the Fed raises interest rates it will create a recession on Main Street. That's not happening before Mid Terms and probably never. The rest plays out as you would expect. We now have unsustainable levels of public debt. Hard assets look more attractive by the day. Roll on 2028.

Yes Manu, it has, every penny we need.

I'm glad Harry has gone with this deal.

The Chancery deal is pretty close to robbery and the words "price gouging" were actually used by it's director. So no need to do any more deals like that one. Not least because of the precedent that it sets for other would be financiers.

TK has a lot of underground resource potential and once defined this will make today's gambit make sense.

Secondly the uncertainty drag of finance not being completed is resolved too.

Those who participated in the raise came in for big money and can clearly see plenty of upside from here. Harry is a large holder himself so it's not as if he's not impacted by dilution.

Hopefully gold prices, a fully funded build with monies for exploration and the delivery of resource expansion at TK will in time make today's raise make sense in the grand scheme of things.

GLA.

If the money all rotates into Oil and Gas futures then inflation is going to rip.

If inflation rips then fiat takes a nose dive as there is no sizable economy out there without large debts and none of them can afford to use interest rates to control inflation. Therefore inflation now runs hot, currencies debase faster, gold becomes a more effective store of value and $3000 gold is a long way behind us.

What we are witnessing is a market shake in gold miners following an extended bull run it's not just Kefi but all gold miners and yet they are in rude health with better FCF than they have enjoyed for a long while. If anything this may be the ideal entry point for anyone who has not yet got enough gold exposure.

For the secular bull market in gold to end there will need to be one of two things happen.

1. Government Bonds pay well above true inflation i.e. interest rates rise significantly- unlikely as Trump is lobbying for lower rates. Higher rate will also kill off what little growth is around. A return to Volker type policies and a concerted effort to kill off inflation. Yet here and now debt has by far surpassed the levels of Volker's day. Upping interest rates to apply monetary controls to inflation will kill government spending (more on interest than on the programs) it will also kill businesses as it will put their costs up and most likely their taxes too due to the impact on government spending. US debt is now nearly $39 Trillion. It's increasing by over a trillion per annum. If Bonds pay enough interest money rotates back from gold to bonds. It's not going to happen.

2. Deflation again unlikely as this will kill global economics and kill every investment out there. Governments are not going to allow this to happen. If they do everyone is screwed.

The positive Gold thesis is still intact IMHO and what we are witnessing is a correction most likely before another leg up.

The main takeaway seems to be that Kore is positioning so that any acquirer can buy a clean corporate wrapper over effectively 100% of SPSA, which should help maximise pricing if a credible bid emerges within the coming year.

It seems to be a sensible bit of housekeeping, a good use of shareholder funds and perhaps an indicator that management holds an optimistic view of our current sales prospects.

They’re essentially signalling that their Zambian projects sit in the same type of structural/lithological setting that hosts very large copper orebodies at Luanshya, Baluba, Muliashi etc., and that their own drill results/geological model are tying into that picture.

What those cross‑sections are telling you

The Roan–Muliashi Basin is a well‑documented, east–west elongated structural basin that hosts the Luanshya–Baluba–Muliashi copper deposits in Lower Roan rocks on its margins and in the basin core.

​

Cross‑sections through this basin show how the Lower Roan “Ore Formation” is folded into synclines and anticlines, with the main orebodies developed along specific stratigraphic horizons within these structures.

​

By posting these sections, Tertiary is highlighting that:

Their licence(s) overly analogous Lower Roan and related Katangan units on the Roan–Muliashi basin margin or within similar basin geometry.

The structural style (synclines/anticlines, basin margin, limited major faulting) is the same architecture that controls the big historic copper orebodies in this part of the Copperbelt.

​

Why that matters for Tertiary

Sediment‑hosted copper systems in the Zambian Copperbelt are strongly controlled by stratigraphy and basin architecture; being in the “right” Roan basin with the right structural level is a major de‑risking tick before you even get assays.

Tertiary is already advancing a silver–copper discovery at Mushima North and is working toward a JORC Exploration Target and maiden resource in 2026; tying their targets to the Roan–Muliashi basin geometry strengthens the narrative that they are exploring in a proven ore‑hosting framework, not a random greenfields setting.

GLA / DYOR

Sulphidization zone.

If we have one at Mushima North it is a big item to add to our list of potential free swings.

If they hit this and the surface drilling turns out to be an oxidised cap then Mushima North potentially takes a quantum leap forwards in terms of scale.

Historical core from RKN800 in the broader Mushima North area shows stringer sulphide mineralisation (pyrite, chalcopyrite) in metamorphosed shales, demonstrating that sulphides do occur at depth in the system.

The presence, thickness, and grade of a sulphide zone would help vector towards the fluid pathway and structural focus (e.g., along the NE‑SW structure and EM conductors between A1 and A2), guiding follow‑up drilling and resource targeting.

If upcoming deeper drilling at Mushima North confirms a coherent primary sulphide zone (not just patchy stringers) beneath the existing oxide/silver footprint, the exploration case shifts from “interesting near‑surface polymetallic cap” to a potentially much larger copper‑silver‑zinc system with district‑scale upside.

By the end of 2026 we should have a clearer idea of what we have and we may well have news much earlier.

My guess is that the Exploration Target will be just the tonnes in the oxidised cap which could still be in the low 10's of mt.

This Exploration target might be subject to a radical upwards revision if we prove the theory that Mushima North lies over a deeper lying sulfide system or at least one with any scale or continuity to it.

At present it's seen as likely but not yet proven.

Proof could move the dial here and quite considerably so because of the likely scale of the ore body that such a discovery would imply.

GLA / DYOR

Big den not bid den.

Even though bid Den is a racing certainty for the presidential election perhaps a buyer would wait for the official results before inking a deal.

It's only a couple of weeks away.

Let them ericnat17.

The general direction of travel here is upwards. If we take a step backwards every so often, no bother.

Finance is done and we're onto the build.

GLA

Executive order 14046 issued by Biden and updated by Trump.

It's basically a FAFO to all parties.

Ethiopian security is underwritten by it's longstanding Ally the USA.

The USA wants peace in the Horn of Africa and sees Ethiopia as being a central part in guaranteeing that outcome.

So despite the long standing simmering tensions it seems unlikely that a mass conflict will be the outcome although that doesn't preclude the likelihood of continued tensions and maneuvering by the various disparate parties or the possibility of a miscalculation by one or more actors.

Ethiopia has made numerous statements to the effect that they will respect the sovereignty and boarders of other nations and thus far it has honored these.

The various actors complicate the situation by funding and supporting proxies with the result that accusations fly back and forth on this subject as a result and yet the fact remains that any mass mobilization which results in a clear violation of sovereignty or in a country verses country military action, will not be something which the USA will support.

My expectations are that this type of news flow (simmering tensions with the possibility of mass conflict) will continue for the years to come as will the political maneuvers, bickering and minor skirmishes between proxies.

Eritrea has mobilised and TBH this is a strategic blunder on their part given the size of the Eritrean economy and relative strengths of the Ethiopian and Eritrean armed forces.

The Ethiopians have moved forces to the north and this fixes the Eritrean mobilisation in place.

In economic terms this arrangement suits the Ethiopian's far more than it does the Eritrean's whose population is small and for whom a military mobilisation is costly and removes most of their workforce from productive activities .

The long and the short of it is that the USA has a Hellfire Missile and a smoking hole in the ground for anyone who wants to take this too far.

Just because a journalist has rightly pointed out that tensions exist does not mean that there will be a war.

Security is a concern and will continue to be however the only way that Tulu Kapi is threatened as I see it is if there is a war which escalates into a wider regional conflict that results in Egypt entering any conflict on the side of Eritrea and this is practically a WW3 scenario.

The Egyptians are not likely to do this. Any serious infringement of sovereignty will be the point at which the USA enters the fray and starts banging heads together.

A stable Horn of Africa is essential to global economic well being because it guarantees the freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

Any country which threatens this will see a swift and serious response and not just from the USA but from the rest of the world.

I really cannot see the Ethiopians being the ones who would initiate this sort of an action.

Even the Eritrean regime which is fairly nuts by most people's standards probably wouldn't go this far either.