Member Info for Catbert

There may be a myriad of possible reasons for the conditions imposed requiring that "no details of the proposed financing will be disclosed until the initial terms set out in the Term Sheets have been finalised, agreed and executed.".

Nonetheless I can't help but wonder what the Occams Razor explanation would be for this.

Clearly both parties have agreed this as stated and presumably this agreement was made prior to the proposal having been formally made.

Presumbly too there was some type of discussion along the lines of "we're minded to do such and such-in this case what might you accept".

There is little point in making an offer unless one had a reasonable idea that it might be accepted- moreso that the offer allows the clock to run for a month.

In other words given the long standing and extended dialogue between the parties one would hope that there would be very little to surprise KP2 in the proposal. This may or may not be correct of course.

My read on the confidentiality clause is that it's main function is to prevent a rival offer.

Is it to prevent KP2 from saying "this is what these guys have offered us so if you want the project you need to improve on this" ?

If this is the intent then we should be in pretty good shape here. Not that I know anything more than anyone else here and I'm just speculating as the the reasoning behind this aspect of the proposal.

What do people think?

It's great to be in the company of such intellectual giants. The sorts whose expertise far outweighs that of the Institutional Investor.

I like the DoD deal a lot. At a guess so does Mrs Mixon as she's just bought herself another 70,000 odd shares.

Here's what I like - it would be good to hear any counter arguments.

The DoD deal has MYX conducting the testing of the implementation which means that any NPI quality tweaks can be made very quickly so much so that they can be made prior to the final evaluation of the efficacy of the project. This means that MYX can optimise the performance outcome of their own trial.

I would assume that they already have a decent idea of what the alternative solutions would deliver in terms of performance and so assuming it works they should be able to demonstrate both proof of concept and a higher level of performance verses competitor offers (assuming a successful trial and why would they agree to a trial unless they anticipated success? ).

Secondly, the DoD has some 300 sites requiring this service. So the prize is very considerable.

Thirdly, DoD spending has been moreorless ringfenced by the administration.

Fourth, the DoD has a considerable body of compliance commitments in respect of their environmental impacts with which they must comply. It is the issue of the day and a considerable legal and moral obligation. Compliance is a significant pain point for them (the sort where failure can result in awful headlines and the end of a bureacrat's career) so a strong motive exists to adopt an effective solution if one is proven. This is not a decision which is subject to economic cylces exchange rates or the flavour of the political adminsitration.

Fifth, adoption at scale would not only create a considerable revenue stream it would also serve as a high status and highly credible reference point for the technology.

Sixth, the Director buys and their timing.

GLA DYOR

"The parties have agreed that no details of the proposed financing will be disclosed until the initial terms set out in the Term Sheets have been finalised, agreed and executed."

There seems to be a lot of speculation here about Harry allegedly awarding his own consultancy a large number of shares. I don't know the truth because none of us do. It seems implausible to me however. Firstly to do this Harry would need the complicity of the Board and NOMADs, secondly why do it now when so much is at stake? If this truly has happened then we have a far bigger problem- we need to dismiss the entire board and the NOMADs. I seriously doubt Harry and his Board and the NOMADs are that stupid. Breech of fiduciary duty now? Seriously?

My guess is that we have a few loose ends that need tidying up which might include the funding of the top co pre signing.

I'm sure the Chinese would like nothing better than a late stage share holder revolt amid allegations of impropriety of our Board. Do we have Chinese holders or bag carrriers here and are there enough of them to cause a late in the day upset? Possibly but shareholders don't even need to be sympathetic to any of our rivals to damage us all. Any shareholder isurrection now will do the damage.

People piling in because of hurt feelings and the understandable human desire to do something is enough to damage us all.

Do you sit in the traffic jam or take the 50 mile detour? Some will get so mad they will do the latter such is the overwhelming desire to enact our own agency and yet what is the wiser course of action? When there is a lot of one's own money at stake the temptation towards a rash action is even worse.

Given the political dimension of our project any whiff of dodgy now will create problems for all shareholders as our political support could evaporate in an instant.

The timing and opacity of the announcement in our last RNS plus the expectations that were set in the lead up to this have understandably caused some consternation.

It was a ham fisted peice of comms which has lead to this farrago but it can still be corrected by our Board with a very specific and detailed break down of precisely what the money is being spent on plus the release of the name of our Major Institutional Investor (possibly this happens after the shares are entered on the register some time next week).

Kefi needs to get on that Q&A page pronto and start fixing the horrendous mess they have just made with their tone deaf comms and wheel Harry out for more story time but this time with specific detailed factual information so that there can be no doubt in anyone's mind that there has been no impropriety in any of their dealings whatsoever.

Agree alanos.

This needs an explanation and detailed reasoning laid out to shareholders.

Also why is the name of the Major Institutional Shareholder not being made public? This is a significant piece of news in it's own right and could materially impact the shareprice in an upwards direction depending on who it is.

Not capitalising on the upside of having this sort of endorsement seems a tremendous lost opportunity.

I think Harry knows how bad it would be to lose Saudi.

They can easily double what they have over there plus to reaccess the market you need to be a billion dollar miner.

The capital will be readily available to develop good projects and most projects don't have settlements on them. If we can claw back our % even better.

Plus multi jurisdictional risk mitigation is worth something in it's own right.

Actually no. Rio Tinto was a complex situation with multiple landowners and a myriad of complexity.

A profitable and worthwhile project but what you'd call a "buggers muddle" (something difficult to untangle) if you were a fisherman.

Harry untangled it. Fair play to him. I have every confidence in him to bring this one to a conclusion too.

"...it also serves to strengthen the company's capital base by welcoming to the KEFI share register a major institutional investor, complementing the strategic investors and financiers already installed at the subsidiary levels including the Government of Ethiopia the leading Saudi investment group ARTAR, major African banks TDB and AFC and other strategic investors and financiers."

Who is this Major Institutional Investor and why is it a secret?

That explains the persistent seller(s) and the recent PR efforts.

Mithrel

KEFI’s rerating potential stems from:

TK’s Debt-Led Model: High margins and rapid debt repayment de-risk the equity story.

Underground Upside: A million-ounce underground resource could double TK’s NPV.

Saudi Optionality: Hawiah’s scale (3Moz AuEq) and exploration licenses provide tier-1 asset potential.

Centamin’s trajectory is steadier, focused on sustaining Sukari and advancing Doropo (Côte d’Ivoire). KEFI’s combination of near-term cash flow (TK) and long-term growth (Saudi) offers a sharper growth curve, likely accelerating its rerating if execution aligns with plans.

Agree Kutzz.

These drill results prove the theory IMHO that Mbe is a bulk tonnage open pit mine project which is commercially viable. This is really what the news is today.

This was difficult to state prior to receiving these drill reports despite previous good trenching and soil sampling results.

The surface showing demonstrates scale and the drill has proven grade and hit some decent zones which is encouraging for the potential for overall grades in the project.

Martin just needs to keep this marching forwards as planned, we have more drilling to come and results pending.

MREs for Bibemi and Mbe should give at a guess demonstrate a beneficial interest in 1moz.

Despite the horrible risk profile of Cameroon this would still make us very undervalued.

Personally, once we have MREs for the two projects I would favour selling out or doing a JV with an entity which has the political clout and in country know how to manage the Cameroonian Government. Probably the Chinese.

I don't know if this is the right number or not.

What is worth consideration is that Tulu Kapi has 1.05m Oz at probable and the Saudi assets has us at 15% of a 3moz gold equivalent resource in measured and indicated levels of certainty.

With Gold having risen so much and with the risk profile of Ethiopia moving towards more favourable status our current market cap seems to value us at $26.66 per ounce in the ground. This is clearly a very low figure. Particularly given that the bulk of our ounces are in a bankable project and at a "Probable" level of certainty.

The probable TK resource is 1.05 Moz.

Values back in 2023 for probable resources were in the $160 levels and this was with gold prices much lower that they are today. In other word this 6 bags just on being valued as of 2023 gold in ground prices.

It seems that we have still got an excessive risk premium. One that the development banks who have agreed loans to us would seem to dispute given that they have offered us the facilities they have offered us.

Saudi I would argue is very low risk these days.

So even without finance agreed we are very under valued on a gold in the ground basis. When the market finally acknowledges this mispricing of our risk premium we should move quite a lot.

This might happen at the same time as the final agreement to finance the TK project.

Eid has passed now.

Agree with Caterham. Some sort of offer in principle may have been made however one imagines that assuming such an offer is acceptable that terms and some sort of detailed agreement need to be created, agreed and signed before any disbursal of funds is made to Kefi.

The Ethiobonds might have generated interest and may have sufficient subscribers however they can only become tradable instruments if they are listed somewhere and if brokers who can trade them have been authorised. I see no evidence of this being the case yet although Kefi may have some sort of workaround plan for these practicalities. It would be interesting to hear what this might be.

There is no scheduled date for a parliamentary ratification of the AFC bank. It may be that this will be one of the last items as there seems little point in having parliament sit only for some other item to hold up proceedings.

So in short the 31st March deadline has come and gone as many suspected that it would. I am not too worried about this point as there are so many moving parts in the process of this deal that this was the most likely outcome.

The Edison report reset the timeline to Q2 in any case.

What I would like to see now is an update on the Ethiobonds the KSA deal and to see a date in the diary for the Ethiopian Parliament to ratify the AFC bank.

We certainly need and RNS and a statement from Harry on all of this. IMHO.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8mduTEvnU0

The report assigns zero value to the underground resource expansion potential. Drilling this resource is part of the development plan for TK. If they prove up another million ounces during construction and there is a high liklihood of this based on their current understanding of the ore body, then the valuation will increase quite quickly from there (if we ever flipping get to construction and don't die of old age beforehand).

We also have some prospective satellite deposits which were subject to some historic issues with a former mining minister handing them over to another party. Hopefully these can be reclaimed and explored too.

TK is an eminently expandable resource and some of this expasion will be funded during the mine build.

It is budgeted for within the plan.

Hopefully we are now not too far from getting the show on the road although noticeably the language has changed again form end of q1 to q2.

As this report was paid for by Kefi one must assume that q2 is now the given timeline.

No hurry then. Easy does it lads. Take your time won't you.

The Muratadere royalty is worth $7.5m post tax over the life of the mine. The nearer to production the better the price we'll get for it if we sell it and so for maximum value we want to sell it as late as we can if we need these funds.

It's the financial equivalent of the game they call "chicken". The last minute gambit is the winning one.

If we develop and sell Bibemi or a good portion of it we might even consider keeping the royalty.

As for our longer term strategy I would imagine this depends a lot on how we are able to develop Bibemi and Mbe over the next few months. If we can get to the stage payments scheduled in the agreement with BCM we will continue to be self funded. Plus we had £800k odd in cash as of the last accounts plus we've had payments from Lanstead since then and all of our exploration costs covered by BCM so my guess is that we are probably sat on a decent amount of cash already. Probably enough to keep us going for 6-12 months post Lanstead without anything else.

The real source of angst here is the share price.

At a guess this will soon be on the move in the right direction. A revised Jorc for Bibemi plus an MRE hopefully also an exploitation liicence and possibly a sale. More drilling and a "significant" maiden resource from Mbe and we still have BCM tied in for more exploration on both projects. Wapouze is a search for a partner and Senala is pending news.

Admittedly there isn't much here for the traders and their incredibly short time lines and unfortunately they do account for a lot of the volume on AIM.

I'm not sure what else our board can do besides start playing every hand with their cards facing upwards but if they do that I'm not sure it woud serve shareholders best interests either.

What they have done is to get the strategy right.

Sentiment may be grim right now and much of this sentiment is a product of the price action however our direction of travel is the right one. IMHO.

GLA.

I don't think Martin did a bad job.

He's measured and thoughful and not an ounce of BS came out of his mouth.

Exploration is tedious at times and this is one of those times. However progress is being made and drilling is being done.

My guess is that we're now somewhere between 412,500 and 450,000 oz on roughly the same grade. With an environmental report submitted we're en route to an exploitation licence and we've dialled into some targets for expansion.

The point on advancing metallurgical testing could improve recoveries and enhance the economic viability of the project, making lower-grade resources more attractive.

BCM will probably want to continue to develop this with us given there is scope to expand the resource from here.

Bibemi is being worked towards a mineable or saleable project.

The market does give a flying whatever but who cares. This is being advanced and at some point an inflection point will be reached and you'll either be in when it happens or not.

Mbe might be the bigger prize but Bibemi has good grades, it's near to surface and it looks likely to have expansion potential. Plus it is now quite far down the line as we are now discussing an exploitation licence.

If we can get one someone will buy it.

I'm not too worried about the lack of an RNS as it is possible that the new investors and the cancellation of the Glecore shares and rights attched is the RNS.

So if no great revelations are to be announced prior to the 3 hour meeting tomorrow what then is it's purpose?

Some have speculated that it will reveal the strategic plan ahead and others have questioned if it is OK to do this without an RNS as it could be market sensitive. My guess is that as we are outside of trading hours the company could cover themselves by releasing a 7am summary on Wednesday or publishing a video of the meeting or some other similar action.

This leaves me wondering what their objectives for the meeting are?

It seems like a lot of effort for a big nothing burger if that is what it will be.

Besides the possibility of some kind of big reveal it could be the case that the meeting is part of a PR process for the City perhaps to more widely promote the share to Financial Journalists, funds, family offices, Mining excutives, other supply chain players, analysts, and PIs now that we have these heavy hitters invested in Zanaga.

Remember last year's press article? The share bolted even though we had not announced some of the things we have no put in place.

We were once a stranded asset but now we have a series of MOU's to supply port and power and a turnkey processing plant which will shift our project economics into a new percentile by saving us on shipping costs. We have offtake to sell and a mine and pipeline to build.

If the key objective is financial PR an out of hours presentation in the City is the time and place to do this.

As holders the idea of new investors with deeper pockets than our own wishing to participate in this project is a good thing. Our new investors have clout and are meat and drink to financial journalists and PR types.

Hearts and minds?

Stringer. I'm not surpirsed the RNS didn't move the price. The information put out was largely already known and or referred to early works related items. The rest was a speculative statement by Harry to the effect that he believes there is now no going back.

He is no doubt better informed than we are however until the Ethiopian Government ratifies the AFC then the project isn't going forward either.

The items which could move the price are EG ratifies AFC (was supposed to be February), Artur confirms purchase of our share and confirms price and payment date, Kefi confirms that it has been put in funds by the holders of the Ethio Bonds or the finance completes in full for TK with confirmation that Major Works have begun.

So to quote Vicky Pollard. Yeh but no but yeh...................