Member Info for Catbert

Kutzz there is the ongoing possibility that at some point they will drill through an absolute futher mucker of a vein.

When they do this will go nuts.

There is bonaza grade stuff in this somewhere. We know that for a fact from on the rock chip sampling.

Veteran it is difficult to know what the motives were for such a low price. The possibility exists that the deal was a long time in the making and was agreed when our price was around thuis level. Maybe not.

This aside the other shareholders such as Elphick have taken the same hit as we have and presumably not without good reason. I hope.

I'm planning to go. My expectations are pretty low in terms of what I'm likely to learn by attending verses not attending, but nonetheless I'm hoping to go and to learn as much as I can.

Hopefully they permit a decent Q&A and we get some interesting questions and lucid answers.

To quote the Altabani from the 1969 film the Italian Job.

"If they planned this jam, then they planned a way out."

There are several options available to them for the raising of funds with off take being the most obvious source but this isn't their only option. The further derisked the project becomes the easier it will be to raise monies and at a greater scale. One suspects that we are not so far from the completion of FEED as some might imagine.

Loans from off takers and loans from other sources such as development banks are also a possibility.

Secondly Mr. Gupta appears to be someone who is quite exceptional both in his achivements, vision and connections. One wonders if funding for this project might be in part at least be sourced from AFC and Afreximbank, his funders for Arise.

Then there is the mysterious GIS consortium. Precisely who these players might be is not clear.

Next there is the fundamental systemic stone in our shoe. AIM.

In essence Shard says that as we stand we should be worth 60p lets compare and contrast with Solgold a project worth 5.7Bn US Solg has a terrible level of political risk and has a higher development cost than we do and yet at the peak they had a market cap of £545m in 2024 we have a more advanced project and way less political risk with a comparable NAV and a more advanced project.

If we get the FEED completed and some off take deals signed we'll be way ahead. Nuts to 60p, we're worth a lot more.

Listed on a better exchange a project such as ours should be worth a market cap of .2- .5 of NAV and that is pre mining.

I can't help wondering if the terms for keeping Elphick and Co lockedin doesn't perhaps signal an intent to list on a better exchange particulalry as this will open up the field to a wider and higher profile of investor.

The political risks in CB are minimal in comparison to those of Solg and consist mainly of a slow moving bureacracy. Solg by comparison risk expropriation massive environmental concerns and opposition from indigenous peoples.

So at a guess our new friends have already planned a way out for themselves and for our project.

If it is to be made up in part of any of my speculations above remains to be seen.

GLA

I agree with Kutzz. The Geo’s statement says it all.

We have a significant maiden resource here.

Probably not at a spectacular grade but it is near surface material and sits within and 800x800m envelope.

In truth we’ve hardly started. We’ve reports on 4 holes and drilled 7.

Plus we have two of these deposits. Mbe South being the one we’re drilling but we also have Mbe North.

My prediction would be slow and steady progress here. We’re possibly a little oversold but not in bad shape. The last accounts (interims showed £843k in cash) plus we’ve had continued payments from Lanstead and have the Turkish Royalties still in our back pocket plus the possibilities of a progress payment from BCM.

In addition we have a resource at Bibemi which is approaching 500 Koz.

I’ve bullied the AI into giving me a resource estimate for Mbe South.

To be honest it didn’t like to answer my questions. It squirmed and wriggled, evaded, pleaded and eventually after I threatened it with waterboarding, finally it said somewhere between .5 and 1.5moz for Mbe South.

This was based on the ground surveying, trenching and the first 4 drills. Not that I suggest you make any investment decisions based on this information.

What is more telling is when you get a proper scientist making a statement and buying shares.

Now we’d all like to know what “significant” means specifically in this case, but we’ll just have to make do with the dictionary definition for now.

There still remains a little opacity on the topic of the FEED. It would be helpful if they could clear this up.

However, what seems to be the case as they are talking about construction is that we are in the FEED process already.

Indeed the impression is that rather than fund the FEED as such what they have done is to co-opt suppliers into creating large parts of the FEED themselves. The pipeline for example and the pelletisation plant, the hydro etc.

In essence we may find that we have a lot of the FEED done by the potential vendors of these services but perhaps not all of it- probably what remains to be done is for some of the gaps to be filled in and some more of the mine technicalities to be finalised and double checked. Then for the whole of it to be collated and signed off.

The reason for this assumption is that they are talking about construction and for construction to happen the FEED part must precede this.

If I am correct about this and I'm only guessing here, then in all liklihood the eventual consortium members would probably be in some way engaged already as they may have preferences on how the FEED is scoped.

Either that or they have sufficient trust in the people we now have on board to scope the project in the optimum way.

All of this is very good news for holders IMHO.

What is also good is the involvement of Investec as it is now apparent that we already have a wider interest from the Middle East, Africa, India and North America.

Hopefully we can now expand share ownership into these markets too as the story about this project becomes more widely known.

Some better comms on the timelines for FEED would help the share price. IMHO.

And longer still with the trolling..................Here's what my AI says to look out for...... although the Ad Hominem attacks are an easy clue.

The key difference between a troll and a skeptic on a bulletin board lies in their intentions, sincerity, and approach to discussions:

Intentions:

Trolls aim to disrupt, provoke, or undermine the community.

Skeptics genuinely seek knowledge or hold sincere beliefs, even if controversial.

Sincerity:

Trolls are insincere and often pretend to be part of the community they're trying to undermine.

Skeptics sincerely hold their beliefs and engage in honest debate.

Approach:

Trolls may use a "pseudo-naïve question strategy" or make suggestions without presenting actual arguments.

Skeptics typically present reasoned arguments or evidence to support their position.

Focus:

Trolls frequently target multiple topics to cause disruption.

Skeptics tend to focus on specific areas of interest or expertise.

Community engagement:

Trolls often try to hijack threads or steer discussions away from their intended purpose.

Skeptics generally contribute to relevant threads and engage in on-topic discussions.

Motivation:

Trolls are motivated by the desire to provoke reactions or "destroy" community goals.

Skeptics are motivated by a genuine interest in the topic or a desire to challenge prevailing views.

Understanding these differences can help bulletin board users distinguish between valuable skeptical contributions and disruptive trolling behavior.

Ask your AI what it thinks about the liklihood that Mbe contains highly mineralised areas in addition to the lower grade material we have hit with the first two drills. Mine says yes there is a high liklihood and indeed we have pit samples and samples from a high grade vein which suggests this so it isn't just the AI.

Secondly why are we waiting for the QA/QC on the results that might just be good proceedure however it might also be an indication that the next set of drill results are materially significant. If they are you would definately want to check them before releasing the data to the market.

Next is the buying by Directors and next is the annecdotal evidence of reported statements made by people observing the cores.

All just speculation on my part.

But.... waddles...webbed feet and quacking too. Hmm I wonder?

One suspects that the discussions here have been ongoing for some time and may have commenced when the share price was in the 4's.

One clue that this may be the case was in the Port MOU RNS - note the words "Amongst other items".

See below for excerpt.

"Scope of Collaboration

Arise and ZIOC have entered into the MOU with a view to collaborating on, amongst other items, key aspects of the necessary port facilities for the Zanaga Project:

1. Completion of engineering works required for geographical general arrangement, utilities (power, water, internet, roads and sub-surface works), concentrate handling and export infrastructure (shorefront, breakwater, jetty and ship loaders).

2. Definition of a services agreement between the Parties where Arise provides services for SEZ leasing, concentrate handling, facility maintenance and utilities.

3. Definition of a capital return agreement to provide a return on the capital investment required for infrastructure."

Glencore were in aggressive persuit of their debt with CB earlier than this and were also in discussions with Rio about a possible merger Glen have experienced a declining share price and an ongoing policy of balance sheet repair set in this context and with the sizeable development cost of Zanaga plus their fractious relationship with CB settling the recovery of $349m seemed like a good deal perhaps.

It is almost implicit that Glen had somehow blotted their copybook with the political establishment in country IMHO.

The reason they didn't appoint their other board member is now rather obvious too.

Dwelling too much on the discount to todays price re this deal is rather missing the point.

This deal was months in the making.

Just looking at the sorts of people we now have onboard is really exciting.

Https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2025/02/10/trafigura-comes-to-rescue-of-snpc-by-settling-glencore-debt,110373315-art

Look at the date.

4.1p plus $349m

Perhaps we now have the reason for the date of the investors event being moved. Glen hadn't been put in funds.

One suspects that Glen were a little bit too heavy handed in their collections approach.

What was their share of Zanaga worth pre FEED and a bad debt recover before year end is all bottom line profits.

Dislodging Glen is a transformational moment. This puts the Manara trading business into play and fully opens up the field for other inbound SIs.

Hi Beardozer $12bn or thereabouts based on what Rio paid and the capex for construction / size of resource of blocks 3&4.

I'm not suggesting that we'd get that or anywhere near to it but from an SI perspective this is what is compelling about Zanaga i.e. the relatively low capital cost per tonne of ore.

Simandou is obviously a different deal and CB has form for expropriation unlike the host country of our competitor.

On the imminent becoming a millionaire thing- I hope so but suspect that an SI will limp into the hand paying for the FEED and waiting for the results before making any offer for our shares but I could be wrong. Nonetheless if they do fund the FEED we should get a healthy rerate from here.

As for usurping MM I don't wish to. I enjoy his posts and find the information and opinions useful and interesting. He may draw a few ad hominem attacks which says more about the childish nature of his detractors than it does about him.

It is easy to poison a BB with senseless schoolyard disputes- fortunatley most of the discussions here and on our other board are pretty sensible and of course we are all inclined to talk up our own book.

As for any of us really knowing more than anyone else, that one is for the birds. We are mostly a mixture of fools, chancers and dreamers or maybe that's just me.

Anyway Bear I hope your health is OK and that you will get the chance to dance again.

GLA

It seems to me that the term "Structural Controls" is not understood by some holders.

Your AI can explain it but if you want the Catbert version it means the plumbing of the deposit. Essentially the pathways and traps of the mineralising fluids which have rinsed through and deposited the shiney stuff.

Frankly I can understand the annoyance at the slowness of news but I can't understand the panic.

At Mbe there is a vein discovered by artisan miners which we took a grab sample out of which had >200g/t gold in it.

That vein is "plumbing".

The trenching shows as does the early drilling that we have good widths of Okish grades >1g/t. It'll be commercial if we find a lot of this BUT if we can find all the plumbing even 50cm of 200g/t it will send the average grade skywards.

Ergo we are slowing down so that we don't just drill 50% of our holes randomly but instead use the sequence of results to inform the next pin. Drilling two at a time would be dumb. So one rig. Learn. Drill next pin.

If you think I'm talking complete twaddle (not unusual for me) ask yourself why our Geo and other Directors here have just added a bunch. What we have here is more nuanced than the grades and thickness of the first two holes of what was meant to be two drills that were range finders intended to index the system.

If they had wanted to they could have just whacked the first pin straight into a bonanza grade vein and followed it. But what do you learn from that? Nothing. You already know the vein is there so why waste the money?

We have scale but we also have uneven grades with some potentially very high grades in the system.

Some companies have made a business out of finding one very high grade vein and then working back from there Sokoman would be an example.

The drilling program is designed to be systematic it is not designed to just boost the price short term.

It will come when it comes. Me personally, I'm betting on what the Geo thinks.

GLA DYOR.

Good spot MM.

The East Mole is scheduled for completion December 2025. It will be capable of handling Cape Sized Bulk carriers. Indeed the current port infrastructure has storage capacity for 2.5m/t of Iron Ore what this means is that our Early Production Project does have a potential exit point.

The East Mole will increase the capacity and our proposed 2m/t p.a. ROM production could be accommodated.

This is not to say that our EPP is fully in play as we'd still need to get it to the port and the hydro at site is still an outstanding item as yet to be reported on. The getting it to the port challenge is probably a sealed road either to a railhead or to connect with the existing road infrastructure leading to the Port.

The EPP is not an insignificant element of the overall project. Indeed any SI considering the project would undoubtedly want to bottom out the feasibility of Capex required and cash flows from such before making a decision. IMHO.

2mtp/a is not insignificant. In theory production could be started on the EPP possibly by late 2026 if one were to hazard a guess.

If the EPP stacks up and is legitimately in play it drives down the capital requirements for developing the larger piece.

Zanaga already stands head and shoulders over Simandou from a capital requirements perspective per tonne.

Indeed using this metric and based on the Capex required at Simandou (blocks 3&4) and the price paid for the mine ask your AI to calculate the equivalent value of the mine at Zanaga on this basis. I guaratee you will be smiling when you see the number.

Indeed this is probably the great appeal of Zanaga as a project. It is very low Capex per tonne. I think that once they have added the pelletisation process and the EPP it could be even better.

GLA DYOR

My guess is that we are getting steady buying and the MMs have been instructed not to let it run because of what happened last year. If it runs it'll look leaky even if there is no leak. It'll look bad.

Playing with the spread is one way of keeping it moving sideways. Softly, softly, catchee monkey.

The other Iron ore deposits referenced in the Investec article are Nkout (Cameroon) and Kalia (Guinea).

Nkout is 34% 900mt Kalia is a bit more special however and of some significance. The history is easy to follow however it is now in the hands of Stella Vista which is a subsidiary of MPGL . A private company. The deposit has the advantage of scale grade and proximity to the railway being built.

https://www.globalminingreview.com/finance-business/17072023/stella-vista-acquires-world-class-kalia-iron-ore-project-in-guinea/

Remember last year and the supposed leak and denial.

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1719340590777770600/in-brief-zanaga-iron-ore-not-in-talks-about-transaction-at-this-time.aspx

This scenario underscores the critical need for operational security, structured negotiation frameworks, and strategic intermediation. This could be the rationale for appointing a specialized broker, such as Investec, to facilitate such a transaction.

All very pumpy perhaps but one possible rationale.

Possibly instigated by the SI if there is one.

The AIM rules allow the company time to negotiate subject to confidentialty and insider trading rules.

All of these points are based purely on speculation / wishful thinking on my part. But in theory are possible.

DYOR GLA.

Interesting question Extrader.

It is probably a difficult one to answer however if I were to hazard a guess "events" have played a significant role.

The value disconnect is massive and a huge part of the reason for this disconnect has been that Zanaga and others like it were stranded assets.

That story is changing with Simandou progressing and with Zanaga having signed port and power MOUs.

Indeed if these assets are no longer considered "stranded" then the only reason to value them less than any other asset of a similar type is down to grades, scale and jurisdictional factors.

A secondary rationale which may be as powerful is that based on signalled intent and availability of resources to execute the de-stranding (if you will forgive my horrible abuse of the English language) i.e. Means and Motive.

Organisations such as Arise and AFC not to mention our own partners Glencore, these are all serious players plus the polical intent signalled by the CB Presidency to get national projects up and running and not to allow selfish private interests to stop the development of their country.

Investec were right all those years ago, however in todays world their thesis is on the verge of being proven. IMHO.

Having them involved with Zanaga is great news for holders.

It is an opportunity to grow the shareholder base and improve liquidity in the share.

All at a point where we are looking to bing on board an SI- their timing could not have been better.

GLA

I doubt it is a leak. More like a large speculative punt now that the price has settled in a channel and we have pending news would be my guess.

The insiders all know to keep schtum. Nobody wants to irritate a potential SI. It's not in anyone's interests to do so.

Good find Schiehallion!!

I guess if we get an interested investor then we'd certainly see some positive price action here.

The deal on Bibemi with BCM has BCM paying us on every 1Moz added to the Jorc up to 4m if I recall and the trend is quite a size. If we were to lock down a cornerstone investor who could get us mining that would place us in a very strong position. Particularly with the spoke and hub style suggested for the site. We could mine and explore concurrently. Or at least a JV could.

Https://www.trafigura.com/news-and-insights/press-releases/2024/trafigura-secures-usd32-billion-equivalent-syndicated-revolving-credit-facility-and-term-loan-facilities/

It is difficult to know the motives of any actors however "follow the money" is one method.

Perhaps this isn't a surprise, China buys a lot of oil. China is a good friend of CB and Trafigura has supplanted Glen in this regard. Singapore seems to be one of the financial conduits used by China. But in this case there is no need for secrecy.

I don't know if this is connected in any way to our project but as I have commented before it is a good thing that CB has honoured their obligations to Glen.

Similarly the part owners of Arise also have funding from the Chinese https://www.milbank.com/en/news/milbank-represents-china-export-import-bank-in-loan-facilities-to-africa-finance-corporation-and-africa-export-import-bank.html

Again similar timing. Again nothing secret.

The Chinese clearly have a great depth of knowledge of the economic and political landscape in CB and one would guess that their Banks will do well by investing in these projects.

I would be interested to know what others here think of these transactions.