Member Info for carvegyber

Here's what I just realised. The SVB collapse is due to it using value of long term instruments to make short term lending. The LDI fiasco is pension funds using short term instruments to fund long term liabilities. Wow, you really can't make this stuff up. The way I look at this is, every institution that has mismatched liabilities in its books is under threat. Banks in both side of atlantic, pension funds, insurers, brokerages, exchanges.....

When will comex and LME get their reckoning?

It is not everyday you see dollar and gold move up big time at the same time!

reckon there will be another up run when us opens

Bank of America is facing a bit of a sell off too. Perhaps the market is questioning it's books despite Feds assurance. It's deposits is in the trillions and it there is a run on that..... god help us.

Rates cuts will surely be here once that happens. Despite high inflation. And you can guess where gold will go. Fingers crossed....

Only shame is I took profit on silver but I didn't buy back on the fallout and now watching it go up. Same with Fres. took profit but looking to buy back 703p and then wham, 1920 gold just like that. Trading this has been good though so can't complain too much.

BTB, thanks. That about sums it up. Contagion is spreading even as feds try to put a lid on it, it pops up somewhere else....

This little gem from Barclays from your article:
"Barclays told clients this morning that the outlook for European banks remains uncertain in the short term, citing "too-difficult-to-predict" risks and the restrictive pathway of monetary policy. "

Charles Schwab a brokerage is apparently in trouble too.

Poker, we all knew that after a decade of ultra low interest rate and massive debt binge which stays on the balance sheet, then you suddenly crank up the rate, it is going to cause things to break somewhere.

I was just scratching my head where is this going to break but I guess we are seeing the cracks.... they keep saying banks are well capitalised but I guess not everyone is and contagion can sometimes spread like wildfire. When it gets to institutions that are too big to fail, like Italy, that is when things start to get interesting. Would almost make Ukraine war a sideshow.

The bond losses in SVB has spooked the market. No one is sure who is naked now that the tide of bond prices are receding.... I remember that this was how sub prime started....

DK, just as US chose to escalate with Russia before the invasion happened rather than negotiate, they are now escalating with China. The western media is all one way criticising China's autocracy and aggression to Taiwan but not highlighting the west's aggression to it. The whole tribal feeling is being stirred up and the whole western population will be led by the ruling class sleepwalking into world conflict. Time to call time on this madness and be friends again. At the end of the day, all of these are just over differences in viewpoints and US refusing to give up its no 1 position. Everyone is under pressure to choose sides.

LWHL, I guess that the savings and wealth from rising property prices during the pandemic is cushioning the tightening at the moment. Plus there isn't massive layoffs. With these things, often it just falls off a cliff as they are like dominoes. The liquidity tide is certainly going out and bond investors will be more reluctant to buy them as it is a sure fire way to lose money. Who is going to finance the deficits?

I sit here scratching my head....

over $1trillion in interest payments? Surely this is not sustainable and just a revolving door of debt devaluing USD. Why does anyone even want to hold us debt is what fails me. Someone somewhere are going to start selling driving the yields up to unsustainable levels and wallop, you have an almighty crash.

Yup. As expected, powell talking tough so we will await results of economic news to see where this will move. Traders trading at the moment.

We might have a little bit more time to wait with tough talking powell on form. NFP friday.

Spot on backg. We already knew what the result would be from the Q4 production report. Although I actually predicted a larger rise in costs so 8% is good news to my ears. This is market reaction to news and the production increases due too Juani will be the driver of growth in SP and of course, gold and silver price.

Only caveat is if Feds don't pivot. Many people have speculated on limits of rate hikes but they seem intent to talk it up for now....

Poker, January has bring many uptick surprises to the US market. They could well be headfakes which history has shown to have plenty of during downturns. We just have to wait and see. Just doesn't seem to add up. Best to ask american friends what they see.

Friday is NFP time again so it will be interesting to see if the big rise in payroll can be sustained or was last month a blip

The strength of the US economy is not good news for gold and may well reverse the macro trend for gold. I shall be watching this keenly over the next couple of months what sort of landing US is likely to get.

I am still sceptical that firms and households can withstand the rate rises but we have to see if the printed money washes out in the end. With feds on QT as well, it does leave me scratching my head. I am still thinking that combination of higher rates and QT will lead to a liquidity crisis in the next 2-3 months so I am still betting that way but I am keeping a very keen eye on this. We know from the LDI fiasco that things like this can happen very suddenly.

They nuked 2 japanese cities to test their weaponry. No war crime tribunals?

Iamald, yeah US one of the most corrupt countries but they call their corruption lobbying so it is fine. While they will go around the world lecturing and sanctioning others.

They have just managed to set up a whole legal and political system to facilitate their 'lobbying'.

I just amazes me that because of USD dominance, rest of the world continues to finance them. Reckoning has to come some time right?

I believe you are using the correct strategy to buy in tranches. Unless gold goes on a long term decline from here, you should win in the mid term. By April, the inflation figures will look very different and if the employment and payrolls are also showing signs of economy slowing, then gold will be flying. The twin CPI and NFP have in the short term cause a big correction which is par for the course for gold and more so silver. We know this when you invest here so no surprises there.

If gold (and silver, fres) in the short term is tied to the US CPI fortune, then the trade surely is to start taking positions soon. Reason being Ukraine war started end of Feb and energy went parabolic after that. CPI are YoY figures so inflation will drop by significant amounts in the Feb figures and especially Mar Apr figures. I see this as a short term correction and an opportunity.