Member Info for carvegyber

Not hard to work out.....I have been banging the inflation gong for the last 2 years. Gold is the ultimate hedge. Just that rate rises and strong dollar has been holding it back. Looks like those things are falling by the wayside but inflation remains....plus now trust in crypto has been severely dented.

Nice, seems like we have waited a very long time for this but last time it was this high was only a year ago. I have to say, this has been a great trading stock. Thank you gold and fres. Not forgetting silver too.

Yes very odd. Dont you just hate it when shares drops suddenly without a reason. Makes you think there is a news leak somewhere.

Agree on the pig's backside management they have made of Juani and generally. However, if you were to look at it from a glass half full point of view is that the SP likely already reflects this and therefore any positive surprise will drive and outsize return.

ie. underperformance already priced in but when by chance they overperform, then BOOOOM

I remember a quarter when they hit a rich seam where gold increased 20%!

I don't get this sometimes. When the gold price went up above 1800 last week, this retraced below 900p. Now gold is below 1800 and this is racing along.

Not that I am complaining.

Noel, yes great to see all 3 happen today but the bears have already pulled it below 900 a few times in the short hour. Hopefully the selling has stopped with all the stops and limits clear off and we can convincingly clear 900p. I would have thought we would be much higher by now so let's wait for 2pm... normally, when this breaks a hurdle, it would clear it with some margin.... be at least 2-3% gain with gold over 1800 but I guess the weakness over the past week dampened this.

I am not celebrating too hard until this clears 910p and stay up

Powell is sounding pivoty.... like I said in my previous posts, surely the rationale to invest in this through the high inflation rate raising time is to hold it until feds start slashing rates again when the zombies start to fold....

Well done the hodlers.

900p is looking hard to crack. We need gold to breach 1780 to do that I feel....or silver crack 2200 or both. lol

Ken, I am not questioning the condition of the boats. I am just pointing out that it is sitting on a diminishing assets especially so in the face of rising rates. If you are familiar with taking out a mortgage, you will know that as LTV rises, so that the cost of finance. It is very uncertain until CCL can demonstrate a sustained cashflow and debt servicing without having to resort to ever raising funds. For as long as this relies on raising more debt to stay afloat, the SP will keep being hammered.

A positive note to finish on though is that this is somehow at a discount of its US listing.

my view is, until the assets are valued properly at the next audit, or this can reliably generate a growing positive cashflow over a consistent period, it is very uncertain and opaque about its future. I have decided to carry on staying out.

Aparky, you are most welcomed. If it will cause some people who misunderstands the fundamentals of this to avoid a disaster, I would have been happy. Just think twice and always listen to the derampers to see if they have a point. Their views are often more valuable than the incessant rampers that infest these boards. The deluded are mostly the ones thinking that if this was £30/40 in the past, it will get back there soon. My view is, it will not get back there this decade. I was proven right soon after covid when this was £15 that it should be below £10. I am not certain what it should be valued at now because I don't have the time to go through the fine prints in the books. All I want to do is to make sure that the investors here don't just use one incorrect metric to value this (such as past prices).

You can liken this to a property company where the ships are the assets and the fares the income. On one side, you have the income to value this company and on the other side, you have the assets. I am trying to point out that the fundamentals have changed and you need to revalue accordingly. 2 years ago, interest rates were virtually zero. Today, they are 3+% and climbing. This will cause all sorts of assets to be written down. Just like houses. Ask yourself, is house prices going to drop in the face of high rates? Then ask yourself when you go to refinance, what is your LTV? Who is valuing those boats? Next couple of years will see downwards valuation on boats and how that will impact borrowing could be very significant. The market is pricing this in but no one here can see it. If your LTV drops below a certain point, then you are forced to go to the loan sharks or sell assets at distressed rates.

Yeah, not a great time to buy for trading. Unless of course it breaks the channel to the upside but looking at patterns, quite unlikely.

J, FOMO? LOL.

It will be choppy as some have said and you never know what twists lies around the corner but the pivot will inevitably come.

Like I hinted in one of my earlier posts, those selling out in the 700s here just makes their case for investing in this look idiotic. Surely the whole purpose of investing in this is to take positions while gold is being battered by rising rates and then reap the rewards when pivot happens then ride it all the way to slashing rates which may take another year or 2. I did say few weeks back that it is getting closer and it looks like to me it is getting even closer now:

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Monday echoed comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller that interest rates needed to keep rising to battle inflation, but potentially at a slower pace.

"Gold has had a very strong run from $1,618 per ounce and is now due for some consolidation in the short term. However, the overall dominant risk remains very much to the upside," said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities.

We will find out soon when pivot is confirmed. Fingers crossed. Hodl

DrJ for PM.

You haven't clocked what i am saying. 2019 is a different company to now. The old debts at low rates will mature soone and have to be replaced at higher and higher rates. The interest bill will only grow plus debt will grow as they continue to make losses. I don't mind lending money to ccl because there is sufficient equity since if it goes bust shareholders wipeout but i will get paid. At current mkt cap it is too richly valued in face of rising borrowing and costs. Same rational why tech companies have fallen. World is going into recession. You want to stick your money in profitable companies with low debt and high yield. Not this shipwreck

Shows you understand very little about debt finance. The note is at 10.5%. Last year, they were raising at 6%. As more of their debt mature, they will have to refinance at the higher rates enlarging their servicing bill. $35b of debt if all finance at 10% means a bill of $3.5b just on interest. Against a turnover of $15b to be extremely generous? The ratio is just not sustainable. As the value of the boats shrink, they will get more distressed and the price of the bonds will go up due to loan to value. 10.5% now. What will it be in 6 months? I suggest you look at what debts they have maturing when...all the money made in operation will be spent paying interest.

There are still deluded people here thinking this can attain pre covid levels of £20/30. This is a different company with different debt structures. In the midst of covid while this SP was £12-15 I argued with people that this company was worth much less due to the amount of debt it will have to raise to stay alive. I have been proven right and still, people here dream. This company has been irreparably scarred by covid in that it is still losing billions a year and meanwhile, the biggest value in its assets (boats) keep depreciating. The costs of refinancing the $35b of debt will be huge due to rising interests. Cost of fuel, labour is up. Meanwhile, people will have less money to spend on big ticket now that they have spent their furlough and covid savings. They are fighting to stay warm.

My money is on this to raise further finance soon and if it proves too expensive, it will have to restructure meaning shareholders wipe out. Sell the shares on this and buy their bonds if you have access to it.

This ship has been well and truly sunk by covid.

PP, and they were patting themselves in the back when they sold in the 700s.... Almost defeats the purpose of investing in this share. To invest in this share is to build a stake to ride the big trend when gold explodes.

Trade it by all means (which I do) but I have built my stakes from the 500s, 600s, 700s, 800s, even 900s to hold until they start slashing rates again. The ride will be stomach churning and there will be jesters in here along the way but I have the stomach for it.

put it another way, if gold can rally from 1650 to 1750 on hope of rates easing, what do you think the price of gold will be when rates are actually slashed and money printed? Follow that thought by do you think inflation will fall back in the face of stagnant or falling commodity prices and higher borrowing rates?

The above is also stating the obvious but it is curious why no one has pointed it out on here.

I run an import business and every 2 weeks, I am getting special offers on container rates from our shippers. Last year, rates were record high! There is definitely a sales slowdown and there will be shedloads of inventory this Xmas. You can almost count on a bumper post xmas sale. Discounts like you have never seen.