Member Info for carvegyber

Dr, we don't trade in absolutes. It is impossible to time the highs or the lows. You trade the trend. And the trend for inflation appears to be heading down and hence the thinking is, pace of rate rise will slow down. That is enough to assume that the foot on the gold brake will start to ease. It won't of course lift overnight which is stating the obvious but if you wait for the rates to be slashed, the horse would have already bolted.

Trade as you see fit.

Whoever is right, probably doesn't matter. Ultimately, gold price action is showing me it wants to go up strongly and what is holding it back is the fed's rate hikes. Ultimately, it is down to the feds and what they do in december. Will it be 0.50% or 0.75% which will determine the fate of gold. Driving rates higher would risk a catastrophic event somewhere be it Japan or Italy or even a bond fund causing systemic failure in the financial system (no one foresaw the LDI fiasco). It also risks massive destabilisation of lenders with defaults. Feds has got to know this and hence will probably scale back sooner rather than later as much as they hate the rise of gold, it will happen. By march/april, the inflation figures will be right down because the spike in oil and food will have work itself out of the system due to the anniversary of Russian invasion.

They will pat themselves in the back and say job well done. That is if something hasn't blown up by then.

Meanwhile, volatility will increase and I am loving it. Buy in tranches when it drops, and sell in tranches when it rises. I am sure by trading account will show £20k of profit by middle of next year if this volatility continues. Provided gold doesn't crater to 1500. I can't see how it can.

There's some keyboard warrior syndrome on display here.

rip rip hurray

PP, very similar strategy to mine. These volatility has been great for trading. We know there isn't going to be huge upsides until the pivot happens. You can see it in the gold price. It wants to go up but Powell keeps talking it down.

Pivot will come because it will come time when the high rates will start busting personal finance and companies.... it is not even sustainable for the federal government. The mini budget is just a little taster...

Who is this DanielJames01 with his kiss of death $1500? LMFAO. Even got ticked up. Slater, you multi posting again?

Looks like investors are starting to hold back in buying US t-bills. The end of the faith in fiats is not far in the horizon:

If the US Treasury market drys up, it may signal a Hindenburg moment that spills over into derivatives and the financial system. Reuters reports that on Monday, Bank of America warned rising illiquidity in the $14.8 trillion U.S. Treasuries market could spill over into other financial markets. This comes as government bonds are experiencing their worst week in years as the Fed's interest rate hiking cycle continues.

Analysts at Bank of America are worried about the state of the U.S. Treasury market. “In our view, declining liquidity and resiliency of the Treasury market arguably poses one of the greatest threats to global financial stability today, potentially worse than the housing bubble of 2004-2007,” they wrote in a report Wednesday. They noted that if the Treasury market really hits the wall, the effects could cause even greater disruptions to the U.S. economy than those seen in the financial crisis over a decade ago...

Bailey is a bigger idiot than the last one.....

They will end up nationalising the failed pension funds and taxpayers pick up the tabs again. Then go after the banks for mis-selling.....

I have to say, no one single pundit predicted this corner of the market. Came completely out of left field. Shows you how fragile the market is. We just need something to blow up across the pond for gold to fly.

Fellow PM bugs, as you know, I had batten down the hatches due to CBs raising rates and don't see good prospect of large PM rises until the pivot to low rates happen. We are very close now.... BOE has had to step in to bail out certain pension funds and it looks like Credit Suisse is almost certainly going bust.

All the left leaning media who is calling on BOE to put up interest rates significantly will probably be disappointed and soon, we will have QE again and just live with inflation. Inflation is not going away for as long as we won't talk with Putin so my fellow posters, happy days soon..... Not just yet but soon. Weeks away I reckon.

Slater, I don't know much about Max's ramping but I know when you come on to deramp, it is time to buy.

As we all know, when silver runs, it is like Usain Bolt.

IG, unusually strong silver moves relative to gold. I do wonder what is going on? Had my limit sells triggered alerting me to it.

GILTs can never default and the yield rise was just bond traders trying to profit but it does showcase how precipitous the whole bond market is now in crashing the dominoes. Italy, on the other hand will be interesting to watch. They can't print Euros to buy bonds so if Italian gov wants to borrow and grow, what will the bond vigilantes do?

Definitely the space to watch. Even US is not immune if Biden keeps borrowing. Reckoning will come.

40th. Haven't you been keeping up with the news? Russia already knows it can't win and has been urging negotiations to save face. It is Zalensky who is not willing to do so. It looks like the action will be ratcheted up and I guess Putin's game is to know Ukraine back and then hope for Z to negotiate so that they can extricate itself. Putin can't win and I can't see how Z can either.

Ukraine will negotiate when US and UK stop sending billions monthly to Ukraine so I guess the war's duration will be down to public opinions in the US and UK.

Good post DC. Us here think of Ukraine now as a liberal upright country because of the war when in fact it is one of the most corrupt in the world and prone to brutal oppression of its Russian population.

Poker, interesting article thanks.

An excerpt from an article from Moneyweek:

Silver could be about to go on a multi-week bull run
That said, I do think silver could enjoy a multi-week rally from here and I’ll explain why.

The COMEX is the world's largest futures and options trading exchange for metals. There are three groups of traders: the commercials, the large speculators and the small speculators. The commercials tend to be seen as the smart money, and, as they are often acting on behalf of miners, they tend to be sellers and so they tend to be short.

Every Friday evening, the positions of the various traders the previous Tuesday – the open interest, as it is known – is announced. On Friday we discovered something extraordinary. That the commercials are net long – ie buyers – for only the third time in 40 years.

That suggests a genuine shortage of metal.

Meanwhile the speculators, who for the most part do not have metal to deliver, are net short. This opens up the possibility for a short squeeze.

Now this is silver, so don’t get your hopes up and don’t take on too much risk. If it can go wrong it will. But the stage is set for a multi-week rally. If the broader markets correct, then silver will come tumbling down with them. But if they can remain flat or rising slightly, then silver should enjoy a good run.

Buying silver is justifiable on a value basis – silver is cheap below $20. It has displayed lots of relative strength over the past two days. My moving average crossover system is also on a buy signal.

Astro, I feel the gold price in the short term will be tied to the pace of Fed's interest rate hikes or tone. Any sign of their economy cooling /recession deepening would be good for gold but any sign of more aggressive hikes would be bad.

4.5k gold? Got to be when confidence in USD collapses. That will be there is wide spread selloff of T Bills or a rival to the USD hegemony. I can't see that in the next 10 years.

Seriously bonker?! Gold 2400 H2? Bold call.

ps. you look remarkably like Janet Yellen.