Member Info for carvegyber

Demo, you are right. It is polarising the world rather than harmonising it.

I know some of you will come on and say Putin is the one that started all this but in reality, it is not unprovoked. Sleepy Joe had a chance to prevent all this by agreeing with Putin that Nato will not expand to take in Ukraine instead he sends a cxnt that is Blinken to go talk to another cxnt. You are always going to get a cxnt outcome.

Several million refugees and countless suffering and dead later, we are back to square one with non-Nato alliance being now effectively being agreed. I always favour diplomacy than use of force. Biden has the worst foreign policy record in the US history. He got it wrong right from Iraq to Afghan to Ukraine.

Bit of a friday rant here: Ultimately, US and the west in general needs to accept that not everyone in the world thinks like us. We have to stop provoking other countries and get them to think like us. Every country the west interferes with ends up being worse off. Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, Afghan, the list just goes on....

I am getting uncomfortable that a long line of western old men are lining up on lecture podium to lecture China and our media appears to be gleefully going overboard in this propaganda. Trump seems to have kicked off the China propaganda and from a cuddly friendly business minded China, they are being now increasingly being painted as an evil regime. Antics and fingers are wagged to not invade Taiwan when if you are a student of history, you will know that Taiwan is China. Its full name is Taiwan Republic of China for christ's sake and the west talks about it now as if it is an established sovereign state that is about to be invaded unfairly. Us in the west gets blinded by the media spin.

Gav, I agree with you that the Russian outdated ground forces and tactics appear impotent against the technology the west has. But this is not the point. They would never dream of ever attacking the west but they are more than capable flattening their smaller neighbouring country and defending themselves as ultimately, they have a lot of Big Ns.

The point isn't about who will win a ground war but more to do with the fact that weaponisation of dollar will hasten its end as the reserve currency of the world.

After several years of leadership from Ursula Von Der Leyen in Germany's defence department, their army is tatters with dysfunctional equipment apart from spare helmets.

The big question is, if Italy, Austria, Germany, France have to start rationing gas, will they talk so tough? Why would Russia want to be paid in USD or Euros that it can't use? Which leads me to wonder that going forward, what will China do with their massive USD reserves after seeing their neighbour's example?

Personally, I would diversify to gold. India, Argentina, Venezuela, Iran, Saudi etc would also all be pondering the same thing.....

BTW, I am not big on conspiracy theories but there are many observers that seem to think China has a lot more gold that is declared.

I thought the golden rule is do not bite the hand that heats you?

Russia now effectively kicked off act 1 by insisting on payments in Roubles. I see no reason when the whole world will not start insisting or at least giving the option in paying for goods in another medium of trust. Ultimately, that will be marked to something and that something has always been gold. Afterall, we buy manufactured good from China, energy from saudi, food from south america resources from africa etc. We only need USD for Netflix and other tripe. Americans themselves aren't even remotely interested in what the rest of the world does or think. Just that it likes to lecture them.

Wasn't even 100 years ago that Pound Sterling was the reserve currency....

PP, I wish I could believe you but there has been too many times, too many people saying this drop is last change for the shorts to close the it will rocket after. LOL lol

I don't disagree with you on the management. It has been frustrating indeed. However, I give them the benefit of the doubt with their excuse of omicron and labour laws bla bla. Let's see if they pull their socks up. Likewise, shareholders have not been effective in putting pressure on as we are such a inconsequential voice.

Anyone ever emailed IR and got a response? I never got a response apart from an automated one.

I know I have been drumming on about this and predicting that gold will rise in the process copping some flak from some posters here. Looks like the market has finally cotton on that the FED is in a no win situation. It raises rates too much, it will cause recession so best it can do, is raise rates a little, causing economy to stall but inflation remains high.

now that market has cotton on, miners' rise will follow../

This keeps climbing.... a refreshing change from the usual

I think Fed will act. I also think a 0.25 or 0.5% rise has already been priced in. The question is, what clue are they going to give about the pace of future rises. If they are saying they will be cautious because of Ukraine, then gold will fly but if they say they will go hard in stamping inflation, then gold may tank.

Problem with rising yield for the feds is that when gov has to pay more to borrow, or refinance their massive debt, it will put strain on their finances. Also, the value of bonds that feds hold will drop massively. They will start incurring massive losses if they start to shrink their $7 trillion balance sheet.

Oh BTW, there is a lot of speculation that because China is the world's largest producer of gold, their holding of gold is many times what is declared.

If gold is weaponised against usd using oil, it would bust the US because they have borrowed off the reputation of USD to their eyeball.

So very interesting doc. The triangular relationship of gold, usd and oil is correct. Question is, is Putin smart enough to deploy it? Will he call the US fiat sleight of hand?

He truly has 2 things in abundance to barter with......

Dr, as for option 3, just for discussion, currency war has now been declared. USD has been weaponised. All non west regimes will be wondering if they want to carry on playing this game. The way out of the USD stranglehold will be gold.

At this point, I don't think even China is bold enough but at some point, it will push Yuan to be used when trading with MEA. Geopolitics will be interesting in the next decade. It will be very powerful if it is back with gold and China starts selling it's hoard of US treasuries. Then the end of the USD empire will be nigh. Gold (and silver) will be money again.

Demo, exaggerating is an understatement. Fres has no danger of breakeven or even loss with generating $1.2b of Ebitda. Even if production is 20% down, this has been mitigated by PMs being 10% up. Yoy may be off tonnage wise but dollar wise, not too bad and it has already provided the outlook for it hence priced in.

The question remains on whether production will surprise on the upside or downside in the Q1 report end of april. This is what that will drive the SP then and for now, it is the gold price and the gold mining sector.

Here is something I read from Moneyweek today:

In short, I’d hang onto the investment trust. It’s a solid one-stop shop for the mining sector, and you’re getting a 5%-plus dividend (for now, though this may fall in the future of course). If you feel concerned, the key is to “rebalance” – look at how much of your portfolio is allocated to miners or resources, then sell down to where you feel more comfortable.

Gold miners might be a better bet for the adventurous
That said, if you’re looking for a sector that might have more potential for bigger gains, then I’d have to point to the gold miners.

For example, the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (the one that tracks the performance of the biggest listed gold miners) peaked at more than $60 a share in 2011. Currently it’s on less than $40 a share.

I’d make a couple of points on that. Firstly, gold miners were not the best way to play the gold boom of the noughties. Long story short, that’s because they had no capital discipline. They took money in and they spent it like drunken sailors. You’d have been as well to own a plain old gold bar.

That’s changed. Like most of the resources sector, including fracking companies, gold miners have been chastened by a prolonged bear market and by being treated as toxic investments by prospective shareholders. So relative to the price of gold, I think it’s a reasonable hypothesis that they’d outperform once investors start to wake up to their change of attitude.

Secondly, relative to the price of gold, big gold miners still look cheap. Indeed, right now, they’re only a little more expensive relative to gold than they were back in 2000. That probably reflects this lack of confidence. When will that change? I don’t know. But it strikes me that it’s worth having exposure for when it does.

Democrat, how did you arrive at loss making first half? I can't see that happening?

Slater you are right western arrogance didn't force him to invade. But my point is western arrogance can't bring themselves to negotiate properly with Putin. You can't even understand a point to be able to argue about it sensibly. Sigh.

He has invaded and thousands of innocent people are dying and millions are suffering. If there is a way out that doesn't escalate it further and risk us all living underground, then surely we should explore that? You can be all gung ho on a keyboard and say fight the mad dog but when that happens, you will probably be the first to poop your pants.

Strategically, surely the right thing is to get Putin to stop, give him the NATO assurance, buy time and then you can destabilise him. It is not as if Ukraine was going to join NATO imminently.

As for my SP predictions FRES, would you care to enlighten me on what Fres SP prediction that was wrong? I don't recall a single one. Most of my gold price predictions have been correct. You clearly don't know what you are talking about.

The western arrogance can't bring themselves to negotiate properly with Putin. He has genuine grievance about the expansion of NATO and we are willing to let innocent people die rather than making good a promise in the Bush Gorbachev era not to expand NATO. There appears to be a slight softening and realisation of this but we are still not negotiating properly with 'Mad Dog' Putin. We rather let people die than throw him a bone so he can climb down. This conflict is not going to end soon and Kiev will be destroyed soon. Meanwhile havoc ensues in all sorts of ways. Look at the below analysis. Lots of companies/hedge fund could go pop and it could spread contagion especially in face of high inflation. Energy companies have already gone! Loads more to come. Why wouldn't you buy some gold. If I was russian, I would be kicking myself for hanging on to roubles instead of gold.
>>>>>
Spiking energy and input prices are pushing European steel producers to the limit, according to analysts at Bank of America.

Nickel, a key ingredient in stainless steel production, soared as high as $100,000/t earlier this week, prompting the London Metals Exchange to cancel the trades and halt trading altogether.

In the meantime, spot power prices across the continent have reached record highs on higher fuel prices, although prices have declined in recent days. ... ...

BofA sees a risk of sustained higher energy costs for European businesses.

"For Energy intensive industries such as steel, aluminium & chemicals, high energy prices could be an existential risk," Bank of America writes.

The U.S. bank highlights the recent news that Spanish stainless steel producer Acerinox had shut its facility in Cadiz, citing high power and nickel prices. ...

"To pass on the recent change in spot power & metal, the price of ACX's stainless product would have effectively had to double, which could cause major market dislocations / damage to demand," BofA says.

"We think these events are ominous portent of the future for European industry," BofA adds.

I thought 2 days ago that POLY might be worth a punt.... then it dropped more!

I have seen things like this before. If they are unable to sell their gold or no one will touch russian gold, then they will run out of money and have to default on their debt. Bondholders will then move in and take the assets and shareholders lose everything.

Trading these have been very lucrative. I have built up my trading account's value trading this and silver from £12k 3 years ago to now £20k. It drops back and then always seems to get floated again by PM prices or other things. Small beers I know but better than a kick in the nuts.

I also have a core holding of Fres that I trim and add from time to time. Right now, I am in profit there too.