Member Info for carvegyber

come on....

I am hoping come 2.00pm this will break 800 with the yanks coming online. Break 800 and stay up is the hope.

Results pretty much in line with what I had pencilled in although I was wrong in estimating the increase in cash. It had been smaller than I had expected due to the higher Capex.

We had taken the hit for the production miss in Q4 so going forward, it will be PM prices that will be driving the SP. The only potential upside(and downside) will come from the crucial Q1 production report that will give a clue to the 2022 performance. A stronger than guidance Q1 production could really propel this.

Mathematically speaking, every 10% gold and silver price increase represents another 35% jump in earnings. Yes, production will be impacted by covid, labour law and the stupid electricity board but all these are imminently surmountable. Short term probably flat growth in earning but by middle of the year, numbers should pick up.

More and more sanctions keep being piled on and it looks like stagflation is here to stay. It is only a matter of time before another giant hedge fund goes bust triggering a credit crisis. Recession is highly likely and I can't see EU escaping that now. Only a matter of time before central banks start printing money again. Putin is not going to stop anytime soon.

In summary, we have seen $2000 gold today and any logical person would now say $2500 gold/ $35-50 silver is not far fetched soon.

Democrat, you think this is worth £5 or US$5b market cap?

So a company that generates $700m-$1b in earnings a year with $1b in net cash in a safe jurisdiction of the Americas, with one of the world's largest silver mine soon to come on line is only worth $5b? I wonder who is the moron?

It is worth reminding ourselves that in 2016, this went from around 600p in Jan to 2000p come june. All in the space of 6 months in spite of much lower gold and silver prices. The PM mining sector was charging and it was a bit like the tide that floats all pm mining boats....Just that Fres has a habit of outfloating other boats. Sadly outsinking too when it drops....

Therefore the question to ask is, is the tide coming in or going out surely.....

Yes, this has a very high component of etf ownership so it is quite highly correlated to GDX. Hence why you quite often see a big jump or drop in price at 2.30pm depending on what GDX has done the night before.

If it hadn't been for the production downgrade, we would probably be 1000p now. What a drag. 800p is what we could hope for in the coming fortnight realistically

JMT, pretty similar to yours.

There will be no good news until prelims next month. I expect record profit and this could lift Fres out of the production doldrums and give it a leg up.

tI will highlight to the market how profitable Fres is even if production is downgraded. This is of course provided PM prices stay at this level or higher.

NorthScot, your point about sentiment is spot on especially so for Fres. The bulk of movements in Fres is related to funds/indices which are very much sentiment related. When interest returns to PMs, Fres will go up in multiples because apart from the funds, it is not very actively traded.

That would leave us short changed.... Considering there is only 25% free float, it is well within their reach. I had the feeling that they had always not cared much about the listing anyway. We are more of a pain to them. Now that it looks like it will be a cash cow for many years, why share it...

Sanity check part II. This was taken down to 550p because it was bleeding cash due to the low metal prices and high capex for Juanicipio. Market thought it would continue to struggle and would need to raise capital. That is all taken care of now. The picture is very different. We have the macros increasingly favouring gold and silver and capex all taken care of.

Even with the heavily revised downwards production figures, and assuming a gold silver price of $1800, $23, Fres is still looking to generate around $2.6b in revenue. $100-200m more than 2020 where it made an operating profit of $650m.

It is still a very cash generative and very profitable company with by now a huge cash pile. I am guessing well north of $1.5b right now. We will have over $2b cash very soon if not already. To value such a company at only $6.5b sounds crazy to me.

Trading this has definitely been a very good strategy. It the face of the labour and covid challenge, 1000p is going to be hard to attain in the next 6 months unless gold goes above 2000 and silver 30.

On those numbers, I reckon the company will still make a revenue of $2.8b. Around $400m more than 2020. It would push operating profit close to $1b level. That would be only 7x EBIT on current SP. Pretty good value. Their cash pile should also be getting quite big. Could well be big enough for a special dividend I wonder?

Fres is not a very highly speculated share so the SP tends to be more affected by the buying and selling of funds. When they are not in the market, the SP will slide and you will see quite small volumes. GDX is a good guide for it although if there are big buys or sells, these can move the price quite a bit.

I am with JMT on the production figures although I am more pessimistic than him. I would guess 51moz silver and 760k gold. Top end gold but a miss on the low end silver. Neutral in relation to market expectation because of the good gold performance.

If they hit those numbers, the markets will love it. I think the market is pricing for lower.

5x5. No doubt manipulation goes on. Spoofing happens when crooks decide to rig the market.

I am referring to the theory of 800moz short by BOA. No one knows. Just accusations. Neumeyer's accusation is that because BOA is so short, they have to be colluding with other banks and CEC to keep the lid on silver price or there would be a big credit event. It's a theory. No one has been convicted for it yet....

5x5, yes all due respect to him. calling him a bit fanatical is actually quite far from branding him a fanatic.

He is just repeating suspicions from other fanatics and if enough people repeat these things, they become 'true'. Especially if you are CEO of a large silver miner. It serves his interest to keep the theory running....

Spind, he mentioned about BOA being short $800m silver. I listen to these manipulation theories with a pinch of salt. As much as I respect him as the CEO of First Majestic. He is no muppet but he is a bit fanatical about this manipulation thingy. Fanatics are often blinkered.