Member Info for carvegyber

Looks like market is in a sell everything mode like we discussed the other day. If our rationale is right about gold (and Fres to a greater degree) initially being sold but bounce back strongly, then I would reasonable expect gold to clear 1850 soon heading for 1900.

As for Fres, I think it will also depend on next week's production figures but a decent one should see it closer to 900 than 800.

I was seeing strength in gold just days ago and posted about the 1830 looking like being busted soon. Looks like it happened soon after derampers came on. LMAO.

Hmmm, all the bear jesters have shut up shop..... fingers crossed.

jmt. true. They will either vote for another trumpian sort or Sanders that will promise more free stuff or resort to riot if it doesn't happen. That will be when usd might start unravelling to be replaced by a new reserve currency. Unfortunately, that is years away.

Biden is a sleepy lame duck. It will just continue to sleepwalk meanwhile.

Silver continues to march up today. Definitely something going on in that market. 5x5, I watched the whole of the andrew maguire video. His view on the 'specs' algo trading the yield/dollar number against gold chimes with mine. In the mid term, I feel the inflation numbers will be the driver of gold.

I actually haven't factored in the Basel 3 factor which he was explaining in detail. How the market makers are now removing liquidity because they fear the physical guys taking delivery and couple this with Omicron in Europe cutting refinery production. We now have options expiring last week of Jan and with refinery limited, only drawdown would be from the vaults. I had heard from other analysis that current unallocated bars are around 50% of usual numbers. If there is a squeeze, the numbers could go sky high. Have you seen the Omicron numbers in Europe? It makes UK look tame.

I am getting enthused.

Thank you very much 5x5. He is very convincing. I hope he is right

Does anyone know why silver shot up just in the last few hours? I can't seem to find any sensible answers apart from guesses. Big buyer in market or silver shortage news leaking out.

jmt, what is the main reason why you think silver will hit $30?

Pbear. That is a good post. Some sound reasoning behind it and I can see your concerns with yield as well as production from the company in the short term.

Production wise, we are somewhat in the dark as you mentioned, the company is very bad at communication and perennial under deliverer. Fres seems to always get hammered shortly before production results....

Yield wise, my take is slightly longer term. Right now the choppiness is all about traders trading the short term bets on when and by how much yields will rise so they sell/buy assets that get affected most by this. Gold is one of them. In the mid/longer term, the underlying story still is the hugely negative real rates. If feds will raise rates to 5% in the next year, then gold is toast. But if the rise is more like 0.25% each quarter over the next 2 years, then gold has a long way to run provided inflation stays high. It will be choppy and I will be staggered if gold doesn't hit 1900 by year end.

I am guessing that the profit will be around $600m to $800m mark. Let's assume a divi of $250m. That would be 3% yield. Not too shabby. If $1b profit and $400m divi, it would be 5%. Pretty strong.

DrJ, yes big hike in dividend as a result of profits would like this but unfortunately, that won't come until after april's results.

I am watching GDX for definite signs of a turnaround in sector sentiments. There are tentative signs but too early to tell. What that happens, Fres will surely beat 1000p later in the year. With Central banks powerless to raise rates aggressively, I am fairly certain gold will march on from here and it will be the tide that floats all miner boats....

Kando, I feel the recent weakness is more to do with the delays of Juanicipio. There will be no upside until 3q this year production front. Only question imminently is 4Q report. At higher end of forecast would mean a good bounce but if it disappoints again, then this would slide.

At the moment it is hard to call with the labour law situations.

Dollar decline wasn't the main factor for price rises in 2021. In 2021, USD climbed from 9000 level to 9700 seen couple of weeks ago. That was a big jump. The main reason why we have big inflation in that article is because of supply chain bottlenecks and catch up demand when economies start opening up. The article mentioned this itself.

Pandemic lockdown caused a lot of companies to shut and trim production. The fracking industry for example.

Poker, fortunately for US, this currency effect is not as obvious as in other countries. The reason is that majority of imported items are denominated in USD. This is unique to USA because the world pretty much transact cross border trade in USD. Only limited exception being Europe. It will more hurt the margins of exporters to US rather than importers.

That is the reason why I would like to see USD deposed as the world's reserve currency. They have been abusing it with impunity to enrich themselves and no one is calling their bluff. China is the only one capable but they are too alone diplomatically. US has the other leading economies stitched up in the money printing slight of hand. Which brings me to my rant: why can't more people see the value of gold (and silver)?

Yes, 1830 is a key level. Looking at the general upward trend of gold since the august 21 low and the more recent sep and dec higher lows, I think 1830 will be taken out in the next 2-3 weeks although there will probably be another slide to 1800. If and when that happens and 1800 holds, that will be a very strong signal for 1830 breach.

LMAO. Always a good sign when a deramper comes on.

looks like feds not too hawkish since there is no firm plans to reduce balance sheet or even raise rates at this point except saying that it will take a few meetings to get this done. PM should get a clear run for a bit. We need inflation to stay high but not too high which will spook the market and fed.

Those still not convinced inflation can cause havoc, just look at Kazak! I have mentioned this before. It will become more widespread around the world.... currencies will slide and people will want to buy gold.

DrJa, I too agree sell off could be steep but short term as gold/silver will come flying back. It is more a liquidity sell off in the sell everything mode that ensues when the market panics.

I believe those downside risks are only short term entirely revolving around traders trading ambiguous messages in fed minutes or what Fed so and so said. It will be choppy and currently, gold seems to be swinging around the 1770 to 1830 range at times wildly.

At the end of the day, I ask myself this: Is real rates going to stay strongly negative for a while or are they going to raise rates steeply to over 6%? Sooner or later the peasants will revolt....

News like this is what makes me flabbergasted with the management sometimes. Don't tell me in that part of the world, these things cannot be facilitated with a big fat brown envelope. Someone's pig headedness is obviously what is causing the delays.....