Member Info for carvegyber

JMT, what have you heard? Have you any link to the story?

I think if the next 2 sets of inflation figures remain elevated, then the transitory theme will be well and truly exhausted. Gold should break 1850 then. Taper we know is ending, especially if they are still saying raising rates year end or hinting that rates rises if earlier will be small. You have to bear in mind, Powell is terrified of spooking the market due to the taper tantrum last time....last thing he wants is the market going a big knee jerk causing mass defaults and recession.

They will almost certainly put up with 5% plus inflation rather than raise rates aggressively. They are trapped.

I hope and think so Kando. However, all I can see is that next 2 weeks is going to be quite volatile due to thin volume. If you are on the ball, you can trade and make some money on big retrace....

yes, effects of inflation is not like a balloon falling out of the sky. More like a slow motion car crash. When earnings get squeezed by rising costs, that is when stock values will start falling. We have seen how it can affect companies for example those energy companies that have gone bust. We need to be patient to realise gold's value. It will come....

Barhut, you have totally missed my point. You said it needs something really bad for gold to fly and I said high inflation.

If you don't think high inflation is bad, you will really need to think deep and hard about it. Just ask the people in Turkey who held onto cash instead of converting into gold before 15% a month inflation started kicking in. They are now having to queue for subsidise bread. Once inflation digs in, wage price spiral will start (especially in the west with powerful unions). Central banks will be forced to raise interest rates drastically thereby triggering massive defaults and deep recession.

Still don't think it is bad? Just watch Turkey for how it plays out..... people will be out of the street rioting soon. You watch.....

barhut. How about high inflation?

Whatever it is, it will be choppy.....

Good chance Powell will come out and say let's wait and see about Omicron first and keep policy on hold. If he does that, and give 'transitory' another name then gold will start pushing for 1850

spind, it doesn't have to. It just sits alongside fiat and be easily convertible. The same reason why if you are a Turk right now, you would buy gold. Bitcoins if venezuelans. Its value lies in the relative scarcity and demand. The so called 'hard money' can't provide that as it can be created with the flick of few keys on a keyboard. That is more left field if you ask me.....

without a doubt bitcoin has more and more acceptance hence more people putting money into it. I don't think it is a ponzi as it ultimately is a medium of exchange. Other coins (not all) have uses too like Ether, IOTA etc. Some probably will revolutionise our lives and make its holders rich if bitcoin hasn't done for you yet. Bitcoin has certainly revolutionised Venezuelans lives.

As to whether it will replace gold as the ultimate hedge, that remains to be seen. I don't think so.

So inflation is not 'transitory' now because Powell is sick and tired of people teasing him about it. He will just call it something else. One the one hand, yield wants to go up because market thinks that means they will taper faster and reduce rates faster. On the other, negative real rates is making gold a very attractive inflation hedge especially since Bitcoin seems to be struggling. I do wonder what will be the next catalyst. No doubt CPI will be high but oil has come off the highs so there is a little more room.

What sort of words will Powell use now and what noise will he make? That is what market is hanging on unfortunately. GDX is tracking up again last few sessions so a good sign. I thought Omicron would send gold through the roof but it didn't happen. Short term, I think it will be choppy but it won't go anywhere. If inflation figures come in high, we could see all three climbing again. USD, gold and yield.

Yes, hopefully we will see a halt in the gold volume decline. They have been beset by mine issues and sequencing as well as depletion. I would be happy if they maintained 700koz a year.

Jmax, the whole gold mining sector fell out of favour after last year and was taken down savagely. Even though gold didn't go that low, the miners got savaged. The main thinking is that inflation will hurt the profitability of mines. No doubt it will. I am fairly confident that it will not hit Fres as hard as others.

Oh, BTW, I had some spare time and decided to look at the revenue based on metal prices and production. We should be on target for $3b in revenue this year which would be a 25% increase over last. In terms of profits, this should be 100% increase over 2020. Probably a record for Fres. How is this not £20 my mind boggles.

treeshake in the morn seems the pattern of the day. I am trading these. hehe. Small beer money but fun.

What will put a rocket in the SP is if they are able to confirm a big gold pocket or addition.

flip flopping like tart's knickers. Traders really trading the hell out of words....

Transitory is out of the table. Let's see if Powell dare risk raising rates significantly which will derail the recovery. I shudder to think. House prices in US has been going up on cheap money. If they raise rates, lots of businesses and homeowners will be under water. Subprime 2?

I hope the rise it is not like an octogenarian in a brothel.

Market is in sell everything mode again. Fres surprisingly resilient. I guess market has learnt from March 20 that gold is the ultimate safe haven in times of panic. It gets taken down on low volume initially and then allowed to rise into close.

The upside for me is, I am looking forward to cheaper prices at the petrol pumps....let's see how quickly the prices come down.

Looks like gold is enroute to breaching 1800 soon but silver stuck below 2300. Unbelievable! I just can't think of a reason for that.

Silver appears to be under pressure especially when compared to gold and commodities. Anyone has any views on this?

Cheers.