Member Info for carvegyber

It is a good time. Gold and silver retreated to resistance area pending Powell speech. Hawkish and it would break below but if dovish, it would be a decent upside. Worth a punt. My strategy has always been keep buying on the way down and keep selling on the way up at every resistance point. Worked a treat last few years with the amount of ups and downs we have had.

PMs need US to head into recession. That is when it will fly. Their economy is still too hot....

Thanks Bonk. Trading silver has been lucrative although it is quite hard to take profit and reenter due to the volatility. Hard to time reentry after taking profit. Profitable but could be so much more.....

Keep us updated on how this silver delivery plays out.

Thanks. It is a real shame our bosses never bothers to put out positive share news like those. They just don't seem to care enough for the SP. They almost seem to want it to be lower....

Yup. Seen that about the guy/gal. Not a nice fella. He has posted same thread under another name here a couple of times...

Exactly. A clear path is what it lacked. The path is obvious as growth and inflation will eventually eat away the national debt. You need a good plan and budgeting to back it up. Kwarteng's downfall was that he failed to convince OBR and cheesed off Bailey by not telling him the plan. Short term borrowing for long term growth is what businesses do day in day out. They have a business plan....

Now we have no path. Just slogan of 'growth' and 'stability'. We will just keep getting deeper into debt this way. Immigration will just eat away at our productivity and GDP per capita. We will be poorer per head than Poland in under a decade!

Therefore, I am relying on Fresnillo's YE performance to rerate this stock. The hope is that gold and silver prices stay around these levels and above. Coupled with Juani, our revenue should end up 20-25% higher than last year and profit to almost double. We might get a good rerate in H1 if the production is ramping up significantly and costs haven't shot through the roof. It will all become clear then.

Meanwhile, I will carry on trading the volatility. Keep my head down and add on moments like these and sell on the way up.

UK won't return to favour. It is on a long term decline for the last 20 years. Our golden years unleashed by the Thatcher government and then carried on by the initial Blair one is well behind us. BOE, government, FCA formerly headed by Andrew Bailey are all complicit. They stopped pension funds from buying too much equities to pile into their desperately needed to flog Gilts. Now they are underweight equities. With the high tax high regulation environment, which investor will choose UK over other countries? We need to be bold and break out of the mould but no one has a vision and joined up thinking. Kwarteng had a little spark but insufficient joined up thinking and shot himself with too many distracting policies. And Bailey remains a barrier. He was the chief architect of instability mouthing his plan to sell gilts by a deadline when BOE has been the only real buyer of gilts. Stupid to the nth degree.

BP, no it won't. Brexit was supposed to provide the opportunity for a bonfire of EU regulations and lower taxes but instead, our own government has gone the other way. Which investor would choose UK? We have a stupid government boosted by a stupid BOE governor.

No wonder AZN chose Ireland over UK.

Yeah, bad government economic policies where the alternatives (labour) aren't any different coupled with an idiot of a BOE governor has really done this country in. Hopes of Singapore on Thames are long in the rear view mirror. Sunak is a chief architect of all this and now he is in charge! Distressing....

Digresssing.....

Big part of the reason why this is underperforming so badly is the increasingly direness of the London Stock Market. This is already a thinly traded stock and add it to the fact that fund managers are avoiding UK, we have a tide of money leaving these shores. Sad days to be a UK investor. So many high quality companies but their valuations are way below their US counterparts.

Well.... the situation I mused about last year and early this year is playing out....Pivot happening around now and gold going great guns. Unfortunately it hasn't been helped by Fres SP but luckily, I also trade silver and that is going great!

Yup. The bank woes are not done....where do you put your money. I am almost certain that European banks are in the same boat. It just hasn't blown up yet because regulators are trying to talk up their safety. Fact is, all the capital banks hold has fallen massively in value due to the rising rates. US mid size banks came out of left field and so will the European banks.....

Exactly, that is what I noticed in the RNS if you care to read the individual mine reports. Lots of legacy production hiccups in Q1 that ought to be ironed out in Q2.

Looks very positive to me. Main one being Juani now being commissioned and ramping up. I would expect Q2 to be significantly higher. If gold and silver prices stay around here or above, you really don't want to miss out for the Q2 results ride..... 3 months to position yourselves lads.

Always a bit of a bet on this but I am now encouraged to bet heavy for Q2 on any signs of weakness. Conditional on the gold and silver environment of course.

CW, this is a volatile stock due to the low volume and free float. When it moves, it charges and vice versa. The management has been consistently underperforming the last few year. They have had great years which will catapult this high up but I can't see a very big surprise except that they have hit a rich vein and significantly increases their gold output.

There is some potential upside if Juanicipio were to exceed target....Q1 will give us a clue. I am betting on no feck up.

After waiting couple of weeks, I got my trade opened at 762 finally. I took profit on the last run up to 800 from 715. Betting that Q1 prod will be ok and gold will pop back up.

Let's see...

The results are already out for last year last month. This is a notification for annual report. Next update is the production report which is very important to give us insight into production progress. It will have nothing to do with PM prices as it is not financial.

I actually have a different view. The bulk of the cost inflation has passed due to the labour reform and energy. The average silver/gold price last year was $21.7 and $1800. Silver production outlook is some 10-15% higher than 2022. Gold is currently over 2000 and silver over 25. If this can be maintained or increased over the rest of the year, it would mean an increase in revenue of $500m or 20%.

The issue is not so much cashflow as there is plenty now at current prices. The issue is, miners lag the PM prices and investors are not fully convinced that gold prices will stay high in the face of central bank rhetorics and shenanigans. When investors start piling into the miners when rate cuts begin, this will explode. Meanwhile, hope that the day comes sooner.

Bonkers came on a while ago and forecasted gold at $2250 and I thought he was bonkers. It doesn't look too far fetched now.

Bonkers99, where are you?

Sigh.... you are so thick that you need ol' smooth brain to spell it out for you:

If you say silver will NOT hit $50 with 100% certainty, that means you say silver will NEVER hit $50. I don't know how else you can twist or interpret that another way.