Gold breather?12 Dec 2023 09:37
This view seems to make sense?
Dec 12 (Reuters) – December FX markets may not be a useful indication of future trends because they are often influenced by the unwinding of positions that usually happens before the end of the year.
Moves that occur in December may be reversed in January, with traders who booked profits on successful positions more than likely returning to the bets that rewarded them Traders who have made good money buying euros, gold and Bitcoin and selling yen have been booking profits, resulting in big gains for the yen, and a slump for gold. EUR/USD has sunk from above 1.10 at the end of November toward 1.0700 in December, while Bitcoin has rapidly shed $4,000 of its recent strong gains.
Profit-taking is not just restricted to these more popular trades, with almost every big bet impacted recently, boosting AUD, CAD, NZD and the yuan and other Asian currencies which traders had widely shorted.
As more traders close bets and take a break liquidity is diminished exaggerating the impact of flows and the size and speed of recent changes.
Next year may see a reverse in the direction of currencies sold this month, because a lot of the bets pared were done so profitably. If not, a period of consolidation may see markets start quietly as traders seek inspiration – most likely from the expected path of interest rates.