Member Info for carvegyber

Seriously, does no one bother to consider the most important statements in the RNS?

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As a result, Gross profit is anticipated to be within the range of US$1.2-1.3 billion, up more than 135%. Profit from continuing operations is expected to be further benefitted by the lower administrative, corporate and exploration expenses and increase to a range of US$930-950 million in 2024, up more than 500%.

Free cash flow[4] is estimated to be within the range of US$820-US$850 million, with expected cash and cash equivalents at year end amounting to US$1.2-US$1.3 billion.

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Operating profit increase 500%!

FCF, the item that has been dragging FRES down the last few years is now massively positive at $850m! FCF is one of the most important valuation metrics of a mining company.

2024 books will probably have average PM prices of $2350 gold and $24 silver. If PM stays or moves forward here, couple with peso devaluation effects, 2025 will be even better! This is a no brainer buy!

Hey Slater the mogg. Did you get outed as a multi ID poster and reincarnated yourself?

LMAO

Funny how easily a Chinese AI just blown up the AI bubble. Tech investors realising they have been had.

Looking ahead, We have the Q4/FY production imminently and also the FY in Mar. It would help a great deal if production can at least match last year. It would then line us up for a great Mar boost for the FY results. Gold and silver was up 25% over 2023 so even if you were to adjust for slightly lower gold production, we are still looking at around $500m increase in revenue.

As pointed out, costs are likely to be lower than 23 due to falling peso and inflation so we could be looking at a 100% increase in profit. This should send a big boost to the SP.

There is also a lot of expectations that PM miners will start reporting bumper profits soon which will be driving momentum into the sector. Will 2025 finally be our year? Fresnillo certainly stands out in FTSE100 as the big beneficiary if this happens.

Updown, you are right. In fact, silverstream has made a loss in the past so really nothing to add to profitability except the monies that was paid upfront of $350m. Penoles is not going bust so I guess it is no bad thing to negotiate. In fact, it could be good news rather than bad.

For fres to really fly, it would take PM prices to stay high for a quarter or two and also for the whole PM mining sector to prove to the market that they have got their costs under control. With energy costs and inflation ebbing, it does look good since unions would no longer go on strike so staff costs will remain constant.

We need to have a quarter or 2 of massive FCF numbers to prove to the market that this needs to be massively rerated.

Red, spot on. When this rises on FCF growth, it will rocket. Let's look at Q3 numbers next.

Fres will do well once the whole PM industry can demonstrate that they are making strong cashflow again. The energy and labour price hikes have impacted the whole industry badly the last couple of years.

Silver sluggish compared to gold. I guess recession worries and slowdown in China are factors. Could be a drag for a little while. A real shame the results didn't set things right in a big way for this to rerate. Market seems to have completely overlooked its cashflow positive results.

Market is in sell everything mode. Talks of recession in US is probably overdone but equally, the US is way overvalued especially big tech.

Japan is the one that worries me. With such high debt load, if the bond market sours on Japan, it could cause more mayhem.

The biggest thing for me is the Free Cash flow is now finally strongly positive again. We are only down over last year because we paid off $400m in debt early...I quite often use free cash flow to judge a mining company because if it is negative, then sooner or later they will need to borrow more or raise equity...

The +ve FCF will now pave the way for strong price rises. Be patient.

Selpec, spreatbetting is not taxable so no need to report the gains. CFDs are taxable.

Mary, I use IG spreadbet. I just trade the volatility. I had taken all the profits on silver with its run up to $32 recently and was a little concern I had nothing to trade with..... now rebuilding positions on the dip to wait for the next rise. I wonder if yesterday's low was the bottom on this profit taking spell by market sparked by the tech sell off....

When stocks fall sharply, gold and silver get hit too.....

Yup, been buying the dips but mostly in trading silver as price action there is far more lucrative than fres.

Disappointing isn't Mary. After so many quarters of misses, I was hoping for a decent growth. Only to be disappointed....

We just need the PM prices to stay this high for another month and the production to be up and we should have a good rerate then. This share WILL respond to good numbers. It had done in the past and we have had 20-30% increases over matter of weeks. It is how this dice rolls

Shame it came too late in the day for Fres.

PP. ECB rate cut has sent silver flying. Can you imagine when feds cut? definitely time to hold if you are not trading.

PP, your explanation of why miners are a leverage play on PM prices and shouldn't be judged on PE alone is the best on here.

As for H1 performance, last year's silver average was $22.8 and gold at $1948. Silver spent 2 month below $24 and the rest of it way above $24. If it closes over $30 this half year, it should average $26 at least. That is 14% higher! Gold likewise staying at current levels would mean a 13% increase. Which means revenue as a whole would increase by $300m. Assuming they don't FU the costs and production, this would mean a 100% plus increase to the headline profit, and as PP pointed out, also a big rerate in reserves. Not underwhelming in my books.

How far can gold and silver rise in the next 3 months you think? I have taken profit on all my silver positions and now have none to trade....

Anyone to offer any views? Bonker?