Member Info for Carrot13

Well as you were quick to point out when the price was going up Poker - bad news for JDs buybacks, however my crude calculation is they will be getting their 1,900,000 shares for £150,000 cheaper each day the price stays here compared to last week. Not to be sniffed at.

Best thing to do is relax, go outside and enjoy the grey clouds, delete your trading app, come back in 12-18 months. But I can’t help myself.

Vietnam Cites Progress in US Trade Talks, Will Continue in June

https://archive.ph/RTAr6

Everything with a pinch of salt, start of April we were 62p on about Debenhams, shop closures, cost saving measures and 100% tariffs on China, 80% tariffs in Vietnam etc. then they made £900m+ and £100m buy back, don’t need to close shops, tariff risk down. 2 days ago we were on about £1+. Now we’re on about market crashes because the Dow had a slight retrace (up 7% in a month) and JD only made £920m 🤣.

In fairness the stock is still up nearly 10% in a month and 30% from early April lows, and as far as I recall in the last nearly 2 months there has only been one or two days that this hasn’t finished up on the day, which is obviously quite rare for a stock that has climbed so much so quickly, albeit likely supported by the buybacks. Perhaps the market got ahead of itself slightly, perhaps expectations that the cautious guidance issued in April was too cautious and would be exceeded, perhaps we all just got a bit greedy, perhaps this is some much needed consolidation. But like I said earlier, if they came in at £923m and have grown that circa 3% in Q1 (even if that’s only organic growth and not LFL), and giving consideration to that fact that H1 2024 was a record breaker, they would, if nothing changes significantly and that can be maintained, come in at circa £950m this year. They say Q1 was subdued by later than usual product launches that have fallen in Q2. And of course, the situation in Q1 for the early part quite was dire. The buybacks continue, and there are no further acquisitions. The actual numbers in the circumstances are in fact very good.

The only real issue here going forward will be a if trump puts tariffs back in place. Wages are up, unemployment is stable and interest rates are dropping. I am happy with the figures and explanations around the company figures given by the company in their hour long presentation and look forward to a decent year, one which I had written off in anticipation for next year. As far as I’m concerned anything this year is a bonus, yet they are up 3-5%, on a year where they have forecast to be flat, in the first quarter of a year which they are forecasting H2 to be better than H1. So let’s see.

Only thing missed was an opportunity to sell yesterday at 92p and buy back today at 83p but if I was smart enough to do that I wouldn’t be wasting my time on LSE, could have easily gone the other way too. Next stop £1+, buybacks til end of July and if anyone watched the webinar today they expect H2 to be more profitable than H1, we’re only in Q1 with a World Cup next year, no worries.

The finance guy Dominic is very good at explaining the numbers in detail.

Will be 90p again before you know it, then £1, then £1.20, as there is only so long the market can ignore EPS and profit, even if the narrative Reuters seem to want to push today is a 2% drop in LFL sales. A bit of punishment today though and UK inflation not helped. Will be jumping on the webinar at 8:30 to see what Régis has to say, hopeful he can re-highlight some common sense around the numbers.

The market isn’t happy at all, I guess the unseen expectation was much higher than the previous forecasts!

If they maintain the Q1 level of sales growth they will come in at the top end of their April forecast in excess of £950m - bearing in mind Q1 was the tariff quarter, and H1 2024 was the best first half year they’ve ever had, the figures look good and if this year turns out just marginally better than expected this could be the year they surpass £1bn despite the cautious outlook.

LFL down 2% but organic up nearly 5% is in line with the ongoing strategy to increase the top end numbers through acquisition and store openings, with profit margin maintained in heavily discounted periods - makes good readings to me.

JamesOxford

Posted in: WG.

Posts: 1,651

Price: 43.80

No Opinion

RE: Interesting Stat...20 Mar 2025 16:44

Just to add, if Sidara offered less than £1 Wood won't sell. Quite rightly so.

Well I guess you’re either in or out now, let’s hope a strong last 30 minutes is/was a good omen for tomorrow. 🎲

Rollends yearly trip to India courtesy of SYN shareholders.

There is much more chance of Sidara walking away than an offer of £1+ which is what you and icecool spent several months predicting.

Good luck to all genuine shorters hopefully we will get our payday soon when this goes under? Imvho (dyor).

There’s no smoke without fire with these things, perhaps someone is already in the pipeline.

Hi.

No need to wait, people were saying the same thing Monday when it went from nearly 90p to 88p close, opened tuesday at 90p. Wednesday it went from 92p to 90p close, opened today at 93p. Not saying it will definitely open at 94p tomorrow (although I hope it does) but last weeks pattern seemed to be up very early with a sell off throughout the day then strong into close, this week seems to be a decent opening with momentum into the early afternoon then a pull back. The is a daily need to potentially fill circa 1,900,000 order, possibly in tranches, and the share price moves to accommodate that.