Member Info for CaptainSwag

tux - i do think a certain caution needs to be observed - as pointed out by slift and mcadder et al.

firstly there should be more cash held as the balance stated was 31st march from memory. i know some feel that cash was missing but the reality is that we do not know the revenue in the period from jan - march - if the increase in cash held is less then than the revenue it can probably explained by more expenses/late invoice payment etc etc
I think the danger of accusing the bod of this criminality is that if it is easily explained away then any accuser looks weaker and clutching at straws. i really do not think the bod would be stupid enough to cook the books. they have observed the legal stipulations of the "plan" rigidly - so as not to get on the wrong side of the law. i would expect this across the board with their "documented" actions.

whether they have observed the spirit of the game is another question but i feel this would probably be impossible to prove. the only thing CA can do there is prove them wrong

if CA do get the bod replaced and come up with a fwp they still might struggle with funding - and dilution could/would still be on the cards. however it will be a lot less than the current plan/giveaway and preferably held by shareholders so that they still have a voice rather than the private feel of a bondholder takeover. they will also presumably look to hur having a future rather than a quick or slow wind down.

the "geology" is ultimately the issue . nothing has changed until CA put a plan in place to extract more. this plan may not ultimately prove any better than the current ones offered. however it must be said that one would feel it cannot be any worse. i think if anything the different CPRs have shown that the interpretation of the geology can change with time. the hope is that the latest one is as changeable as the first one should more drills and data be obtained. however again nothing definite. i am pleased that although they dismissed the possibility of any oil at halifax that they have not notified of immediate relinquishment as they did with other licences. i still feel a further drill needs to be carried out before you can completely write it off

at the moment there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel - but it is still far away and a lot can happen. however we are moving in the direction of it rather than as the bod wanted turning and running in the opposite direction.

mcadder - i don't see the bod as having lied or committed fraud. i just don't think they have done the best possible in terms of fwp/funding as their seeming inaction missed the weather window. had they caught this with a good plan then i think hur would possibly be in a much better position. possibly in a position that meant they could have negotiated with the bondholders for an extension
I also would not be surprised if they could have been in discussions with stakeholders quite some time. their priority is obviously the bond holders even if this is at the expense of shareholders.

as for the "geology". the 2017 CPR was made null and void by subsequent data and the latest CPR. however both are interpretations of the data they have at that point in time. both CPRs are not gospel and both admit that the reality could be different. who is to say that if another drill were to take place and more data collected a different picture might be got?

"Agreed and the reason no one did is because there is now no value left here..."

mcadder - well that is what the bod have been telling everyone - so not a surprise there has been no offer.
thing is CA disagree. they might be right they may be wrong. sure going to be interesting to find out
would not be surprised if there are more twists and turns - never a dull moment with hur!

HH - I agree. and it was mentioned in the hearing yesterday that it is a given that most shareholders will object. hurricane possibly underestimated everyone concerned and it resulted in the hearing not being the rubber stamp job they wanted.

Mirasol.you may have a point there. On the other hand if it had paid off we would all be celebrating his genius and be much richer !!

Totally agree British..existing bod out and I mean all of them and new bod in who are more aligned with Hur as a future producer

Slift - one would like to think that CA would make a fwp that would encourage the bondholders to extend ..if they can gain interest and were more secure that the company could last and be profitable - one would think they would be agreement

mcadder
1) that dilution is only slift's opinion - obviously i would disagree but it is a moot point as neither of us know. however even slift is right it means that shareholders stake is worth 3 times more and the company is still run by shareholders rather than the bondholders private company
2) the am rates change - it goes up one way and down another - would have to get the calculator out to see what the result is and i cba. i doubt the am contract would not be renewed as there would no doubt be a transition period when they lose income
3) if the pump fails they can still extract from well 7 whilst repairing well 6 pumps - yes there would be loss in earnings but that is always a risk.

it is a tricky one with trice. if he just got it wrong he can't really be blamed for that. if he was incompetent/blinkered and manipulated data to suit himself that is another matter. we will probably never know - personally i am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. the "geology" just was not as good or they drilled in the wrong places. i would like to see a new well drilled - and see if that could affect the interpretation of the data collected.

i agree with both you and slift in that the situation is currently not good. CA may or may not be able to improve it. however it certainly cannot be worse than the "giveaway" planned by the current bod.

Good luck to all holders

slift - maybe. i don't know. however the good thing is that any dilution will be by shareholders and not the bondholders. the giveaway was going to make hur in effect a private company

slift - i agree that new fwp could be more costly especially if a completely new well 8

the question is if CA are more committed and / or have better contacts to raising any cash than the old bod. my gut feeling is yes - for whatever reason

the advantage CA now have is that should they consider an open offer at say 100% dilution - there would probably be a lot less resistance by existing shareholders given the alternative plan/giveaway

awk - i have used both the software and the browser and both work. you really need to make sure you choose the right settings at the start.
i use 3 laptops - 2 seem to cope with any video conferencing software options straight away with no issues. one laptop often involves going into settings. not something you want to leave until the last moment. As i said you would probably have been fine with zoom !!!!!!...lol

awk - the hur lawyer later confirmed that there had been no double counting. i think this was at the beginning of the session after lunch. this is when they couldnt reach you - so i am not sure you heard?
i really think that looking for figures or data abnormalities is not the way to go - i can't see hur doing anything deceitful on this. i have my doubts whether the bod have done all they could to effect a forward plan / funding - whether through incompetence or something else. i could certainly possibly believe collusion with the committee/stakeholders at the expense of shareholders. however i doubt there would be easy proof of this if it had happened.

the issue is - the "geology" has gone against hur. it may be salvageable with the right forward plan /funding. i feel CA are more likely to come up with this then the current bod were able/willing to do. it still needs to be done for the future of the company

adrian - if the "giveaway" is successful i think there will have to be. 40 billion shares at £0.001 or whatever it will be is not workable - so 100:1 at least.
if there is a placing /open offer from CA bod then maybe - depends how much sentiment returns and the value of the SP.

adrian - i would rather see the cash used on another drill - but has to be doubts whether the bondholders would agree.
i do think hur will have to raise money by some dilution - however it will be much much less than the bod's current "giveaway"

slift - good link . thanks.

in my opinion hur were underprepared for the hearing - there were quite a few questions asked that hurs lawyer fumbled with - and just carried on talking to get himself out of. the judge let him but obviously has seen it all before.the fact that the bondholder lawyer mentioned the oil price needed and that it has not been there for x years was a good point in their favour

hur have the financial position backed by data in their favour and said there were no alternatives but accept scheme or wind up. the judge took into account the disregard of shareholders and that the picture could change - oil price/water cut / value of assets etc

he has allowed time. they kept talking about the sanction date being when shareholders could object - but i read the subtext as that if he agreed although objections could be made it would have little effect if he had passed it. he has given the time that is needed and i think the interesting thing would be if CA could aske for an EGM in the next 2 weeks and remove the bod.

the issue would be what the bondholders would then do ? the longer hur is producing the more money they should get back. however been close to being given the company for free - would they accept that now.

this is all my opinion - as i saw it. others may differ
i think there should have been an rns issued yesterday - the increase in sp showed it was market sensitive news. however my guess is they were waiting to see what court date they could get. the dates are difficult to get but the judge said he would do his best to help them get a date as close as possible to the three weeks he said they must wait

thanks slift - i noted this when you mentioned it before.
The figure was in the $80s with current production - I can't remember the exact figure. I was concerned this might have swayed the judge as it is significant unless a forward plan can be made to increase production.

awk -

one of the objections i have had with hur's whole financial projection has been the oil price. hur have had it decreasing over the next few years . Personally i find this unlikely and when one of the shareholders brought up general oil price predictions he made this very valid point. the hur lawyer seemed lost when trying to explain it much earlier in the proceedings - however the bondholder lawyer dealt with it very well by quoting the exact price needed for any shareholder gains (after bondholders are satisfied) and then also how long it had been since the price of oil had been that high. since the pivotal point is whether there will be any potential shareholder value it was a well made point. succinct and to the point.

awk - it was a shame you didn't appear - as I was intrigued what you would say. if it had been zoom - you probably would have been more successful! lol
i agree this is round 1 and i think was a very good day all things considered - the rubber stamp was avoided. however now the hard work begins because i think the first step must be getting an egm and bod replacement. i liked the judge - i only wished he had not let the hur guy off the hook as he was really struggling at times . he repetition and continual talking was not impressive. he would have really struggled with any decent opposition. i think it was good CA did not appear as the judge had obviously taken their points on board and was asking the right questions. CA powder is in fact still dry.

hopefully no future court dates will be available before the AGM/EGM date suggested by hur and then it really will be game on.
i still think the argument will be won or lost on whether the shareholders "rights" are affected. hur bizarrely seem to say they wont - may be a legal definition - but the judge quite rightly said in reality they were due to loss of power with dilution. Fingers crossed he maintains this idea.

i think hur were underprepared in this hearing - i was more impressed with the bondholder lawyer and a danger must be that the bondholders really get engaged in trying to pass the "giveaway"

i think the less we hear from the wide boy at walbrook the better. tbh if they got rid of him would be a good thing in my book.