Member Info for CaptainSwag

harchris - i would argue that the best way to deal with this share at the moment is trade it.

so x starts buying - and gets to a notifiable figure. price spikes....traders will sell into it. goes down. they wait and buy more lower...it spikes. repeat cycle

look what happened when bio bought in....went up....went down...went up ...awful april presentation- and the whole thing collapsed. they will still holding..and the hope was they would buy more

just saying it is a possibility.
personally i don't think anyone is/will be interested until dispute is resolved

good reasonable post harchris.
i am not sure i completely agree on what you say about buying..yes initially buys will spike the sp ...but if they leave enough time in between the price will drift down again.

they do seem to always pay a lot of staff and expensive bod salaries for not much return....machines seem to spend more time idle than working for one reason or another.

i think the other reality to face is that the "snake oil" is nowhere near a s*xy product like covid tests in a pandemic...even CD4 had some "scientific" clout.
i suspect the herd will be less interested as time goes on.....they will have to rely on contracts and sales to boost the SP.

and that never seems to be their strong point

"IMO they have to be a little careful now, at half value of cash held?

As we all know, aim is a leaky ship and if someone went in for a large amount, based on, well an unhappy employee or whatever?"

i can't see anyone buying in with the risk of the gov dispute going against them. i will repeat i think they have logic on their side- the tests in question passed CTDA...but there is always the risk.
as p100 has pointed out - the non covid portfolio progress would seem to have been a disaster....over a year was lost with salad man...which will set them back who knows how long.

they need to spend some of the cash on M&A.....Let some body else pay for and do the hard work on R&D....
start using that treasure chest to generate income rather than whittling away at it

"Many are looking at the conspiracy angle.
It is a definite possibility that there is just nothing to report."

yep....i always go with ocam's razor too

i suspect the conspiracy theory is really about being a bit of hope - that the company is progressing on the quiet.

It all depends on if they have the ability to change sentiment and the sp.

Either

A) don't care . Sh are just an inconvenience
B) there is nothing to RNs ..that would help
C) as some have suggested on here ..there is an agenda

Personally I would go with either a) or b) ..or combination of them.

Blistering profits? Lol
Full marks for some amazing fabrication there

If they had been able to fulfil the modest order book..they would have broke even or posted £1-2m profit at max.

Final year results will confirm a loss making year.....again..

Was this the super honest company that RNs they did not need a placing...but the very next day were caught hawking themselves around the bucket shop flippers?

The company that tweeted "busy busy" "big things coming" whilst most of the directors were selling? And later it turns out they were producing nothing with the gov machines ?

Trades in..
Someone who has repeatedly claimed to have saved all my posts..and reported them. Knows the answer to their own question.

Asking the motive is being used to try and counter the content....because they have no answer .

I have mixed feelings on CFO.
I think he is good at balancing the books...eg selling stuff that is making a loss...placing to get cash in etc..he has secured the body wages for a few years

I don't think he is necessarily good for the long term prospects of the company...selling the cream of the portfolio...
Or for existing sh ..eg placing.

I understand the argument that they were on the brink of collapse ..and maybe there was no other way.

It is just a pity that the premises and portfolio were got rid of...because what is left is a contentious product range and not being able to satisfy modest orders.

Could the placing have been avoided? If cd4 was sold earlier ?
I don't know how many sh here have been through a placing number of shares having to be churned through.
It ain't pretty...very painful.

I suppose he has done what is best for the bod....time will tell how much sh will have to be thankful for

"Directors are being a lot more careful with news release than in the Colin days, says professionalism to me. "

says lack of news to me.

thats why some posters are trying to drag up stuff from covid days - there is hardly anything to try and highlight from current operations.

end of year trading update will just confirm that they ran at a loss this year and could not fulfil the modest orders they did get.

mik- i believe they have not been able to cope with orders because of a combination of a) orders later than expected b) covid absences and c) not being able to keep stock due to short shelf life. it suggests that there is a bottleneck in production which they may not have been aware of. There was no mention of the delay being due to needed machinery sold off at alva - in fact a poster on here has advised that the machinery at Alva was not compatible for FT products.

if they had sold machinery they needed for FT as you suggest then that is real incompetence

also note i am talking about the overheads and not the cost of sales. Overheads will be more because they are no longer being shared among the other divisions

revenue from H&N was £8.5 million for the year ended 31 March 2022
(2021: £6.8 million)

mik - the nutrition part of the business was profit making because the overheads of the business were shared between the different divisions.
the first year that it is standing on its own two feet - and it becomes loss making as indicated in the last trading update.

i would argue that odx did attract more investors due to covid tests in a pandemic. whilst this put it more on the radar - a lot of people got burnt and won't be happy with the way the company has been run...so i am not sure it is going to help that much going forward.

mcap is often based on sentiment - but that has gone as far as i can see

the 90m warrants will be forward sold in my view and then bought..at no risk..
the buicket shop flippers are not institutional investors and therefore are not in it for a long term investment but to flip and move their cash on to the next placing.
they really don't care about SH

as for new ceo....jag is not new but has previously been shunted around the divisions - and has not succeeded with any of them.....he is hardly new blood or having a history of selling substantial product. remember he was in charge of nutrition previously

thanks for the detailed reply mik....it is nice to see how others honestly see the share.
i don't agree but i do wish you well and hope you recoup your losses.

it seems that you are valuing them on success in usa...i don't see how a loss making company with that product line and £5m cash can be worth £24m (sp of 10p). i suppose the critical posters think that if they could not succeed in being profitable in domestic and eu market then they won't succeed in usa -

you say they have not been heavily diluted...but there is a potential 40% coming from the warrants.
to give you an indication your valuation of 10p would then become 7.24p
the placing shares will also in my opinion stop any serious rises as the bucket shop flippers exit

the comparison with GDR does not stack up...they have a product that could be used by NHS..i think it is quite clear that odx food test won't be.

Mik...fwiw I think you will be able to buy in cheaper.

I suspect it will bounce around here. I don't see any rockets for some time...and the trading update due will only confirm losses and so could hit the sp.

Can I ask why you are averaging down?
What is your strategy? Why do you think it is worth pumping more hard earned cash in a stock you are clearly down in?

Where do you see sp going and why?

it is clear that the one remaining range is highly contentious (especially in the current target market of usa) and seemingly difficult to sell for odx. £50k order does not sound that impressive for almost a year's work

I would look out for another product with better credibility that was cheap to buy and get into that before the cash burn eats away all the cash in bank.

"Right now the best policy from the board will be open honest declarations of intent. If they do not want or intend to split the company, say so. If they [now] only see long term market stability attainable by withdrawing from western stock markets entirely, say so."

i think the bod have been very transparent and clear what they want.
they feel the best way forward from this mess is to split the company. they also want to stay on western markets

however staying on western indexes is not down to them....they clearly want to remain in some form whether it is GDR or something better.

i think you trying to portray them as being disingenuous is a bit disingenuous in itself

The other disadvantage is that the product itself is contentious and leading bodies in USA and Canada are actually telling people not to use it...

Atan...good post.

I think some people on here just think it is easy as pie to break USA. As you pointed out it isn't. Huge country and where do you start? Plus you are up against locals who know how to crack their domestic market. American sales teams are a lot more aggressive than Brits .

I said all this when odx were trying to sell pro left tests in USA. That tbh showed odx lack of ideas as the strength of lft was consumer self use not pro!

I remember a presentation at the time where they said they had a man on the ground. Lmfao...one guy? Don't make me laugh

Odx have a history of being xxxx poor at sales...so anyone thinking they are going to fail every where else to sell anything in significant quantities but somehow easily crack USA is deluded ..

The £50k contract says it all. How much will be profit?

The company can't even make enough snake oil to fulfil existing orders.. joke

Of course the resident fake and stalker will just try and deflect by coming up with their usual rubbish of lies and distortion about the posters ..rather than anything that counters what we have said.