Member Info for candler

Welcome, I think give it a month, you’ll look back and see that you got in VERY cheap even though you’ve missed the bottom

£30m market cap with an imminent DFS described as “transformational”… the PFS was $482m!! DFS surely will be higher, in which case your buy today at 8p will put you in a great place

That’s the key thing, sellers likely cleared other than warrants which are minimal in terms of full market cap

Imagine how this will move when real volume comes in upon a positive DFS

I think that volume will come even if the DFS isn’t huge figures too. As long as it’s a strong NPV, low capex, and hints at securing funding soon, that will do it

£30m market cap doesn’t need a crazy strong DFS - it just needs a derisking DFS that looks like it will get funding to rerate.

If we get a really strong NPV we could see this go a bit mental given we’re still somehow only at £30m market cap

Supply will be so minimal too at these levels, this is the good thing about the strong yet gradual rise we’ve seen in the past few months - it’s completely cleared out sellers at these levels and consolidated strongly. Imo it’s just warrants that may hold us back slightly but they’re not even a bad thing, it’s money straight into the coffers, and we’ve churned through lots recently

Feels primed for a move again with little resistance

I agree, and I don’t mind that at all. The JORC upgrade is ultimately just a geological statement - would “we’ve upgraded to 27mt @ 6.2%” actually mean that much to any of us? I think what’s more important is the upgrade to reserves & being able to feed the DFS with better info on production planning, helping improve mine life etc… and we wouldn’t get this info until the DFS comes out anyway

The BRES X post today sounded very positive… they have all the info and are still speaking so positively. I’m really hopeful for a strong outcome here and I think the share price is primed to move up too, it feels like the right time

(Please correct me on this if anyone knows any more)

The DFC have first right to fund the project through to production following the $5m grant don’t they? Agreed that the wording and the project make it feel that financing news flow will come quick, especially for phase 1, but I wondered whether the DFC’s right may affect anything?

Anyone know how that right of refusal works? Is it a case of BRES saying “here’s a funding agreement we’ve agreed” and then the DFC can match it? Or do we need to wait for the DFC to make a decision on whether they want to proceed before BRES can make any external funding agreements?

Definitely feels like the large pre-news positions have now been taken - not many of those off the book sales getting reported today

Consolidation at multi-year highs ahead of company changing news flow can only be a positive thing..

Totally agree with those figures Reserved & would be aiming for similar. Imo getting up towards 15-20% of NPV in the early new year would be a fantastic result & many multiples of current share price

My “let’s be realistic” type comment was aimed at the original chatgpt generated post that said £1.20-£1.50 per share upon DFS delivery - even with the corrected share issue, I feel 60-75p in 2 weeks time isn’t in the realm of realistic

In my opinion it’s just totally unrealistic to say that the share price is going to move to say 20%-30% of NPV value immediately once the DFS is delivered. That’s in 2 weeks. We’re hoping for/expecting a significant uplift in NPV. We aren’t going up 1000% in 2 weeks!!

I do think we need to take the “we should be at 20% of NPV post DFS” figures with a very large pinch of salt. If it was that simple, then imo we’d be getting much closer to that value already.

I 100% back the company, everything looks great, I’m invested, I think on a strong DFS & in the weeks following there can be significant share price movement in the multiples… but let’s stay realistic too :)

On the last part, the maths isn’t quite right

- I believe there’s circa 400m shares issued, not 200m

- consensus seems to be that market cap can target 15-20% of NPV once DFS is delivered, not the 30-40% you have listed

So at £800m NPV (which would be exceptional and double what it is currently), you’d be hoping for 120-160m market cap, so maybe 30p-40p ish

At the point when funding is arranged and confirmed, then you might be looking at 30-40% of NPV, so 60p-80p with your figures

The other possibility of course is that with a strong DFS and a strong funding solution in place, + additional newsflow, in H1 2026 the market finally realises the full value of the project, share price motors up towards £1, and all of a sudden, any takeover deal is ‘fair’ valuation rather than ‘cheap’ – feels a long way off this point today, but who knows, momentum could gather very quickly if all goes to plan!

Thanks for that 99, I hadn’t seen that. 20,000t/a is definitely an ambitious goal for phase 1 production, but if the demand is there and it’s low cost, why not be ambitious?

LW, I don’t necessarily disagree with your last point, but I do think recently Mike’s tone has changed slightly as another user pointed out. Orom Cross has the potential to be absolutely gigantic – near infinite graphite with low initial and ongoing costs, esg compliant, 100% owned, strong government support, and most importantly producing the best quality graphite in the world. Loads of offtake interest and funding interest. Strong macro headwinds as the West looks to reduce reliance on China. Everything is lining up for success.

With everything lining up so strongly, there’s no world where Mike & team sell this off on the cheap… and I get the feeling that anything within a few multiples of current market cap would be seen as ‘cheap’ given the potential scale. I therefore think the play for 2026 is going to be “BRES are going to take Orom Cross into production” and they’ll fully back that process, expecting the future valuation will be many, many, many times higher than it is today.

Yeah I think offtake agreements will form much of the news flow between DFS end of Nov, and financing RNS Q1 2026.

Really interested in how they end up phasing production in the DFS. I think Mike spoke about 10,000t/a for phase 1 production ages ago, but pretty sure that the (non binding) offtake agreements already in place actually go above that figure, and in one interview he hinted at increasing the planned 10kt/a

Probably a bit of a balancing act between a nice steady phase up into production, yet still satisfying what is likely to be huge demand for a non-China high quality product

Yeah that’s my understanding too SuM - mandatory to report once a buyer has accumulated shares above the 3% threshold. Unsure on the exact number of days but I’d imagine within 3 or 4 days from threshold crossed to having to tell the market

There’s been so much of what appears to be institutional volume in the past 2 or 3 weeks, I’d suggest if no TR1 (buyer) this week it means multiple buyers taking up all those shares, + retail investors

It could also be 1 buyer accumulating their shares across multiple different entities - in which case all could accumulate to 2.9% without having to report anything to the market - unsure how common practice this is!!

So RAB have been selling down… the question is who’s taken up all these shares? The share feels very powerful and hasn’t just absorbed all that selling but has kicked on

RAB have ditched approx 8m shares but that only accounts for the neutral/late reported trades from fri/mon/tues… it doesn’t account for the 1-2m neutral trades each day for the last 3 weeks

I’ve been wondering if we’ll get a TR1 telling us someone has been loading up at some point this week - would explain who’s hoovered up all of RAB’s shares

Anyone got any thoughts on this?

This board is so much better than most due to lots of informed long term shareholders providing logic, clear information and balanced thoughts

Let’s try continue this way even as the share price (hopefully) kicks on

This is a share with real long term value - the JORC and DFS are imminent, but this project will go to production, and there are many value add & derisking events to address before then!

The Orom Cross site that BRES 100% owns contains billions of tonnes of graphite - the supply is pretty much infinite. What really matters is being able to prove that you can get it out the ground quickly, cheaply, safely, and can process it into a high quality product.

The JORC itself is basically just a sticker of approval on a small part of the total site. An increased JORC estimate signs off that we have a fantastic graphite site in this specific spot… but it’s just a ‘geological statement’ aka doesn’t consider any financials to actually mine the stuff. It is currently 24.5Mt @ 6.0% TGC.

The new JORC will feed into the DFS, due for release by end of November. This DFS takes into account all our costs (both initial and ongoing costs), and what we can sell the graphite for, and will therefore give us an NPV (net present value) - this was $482m previously, but we’re hoping for a “significant increase”.

On share price: typically a graphite company like BRES could trade at a market cap of 15-20% of the DFS NPV (this is what the CEO has referenced before)

At current $482m NPV, that’s £55m-£75m… share price approx 15p-20p

If NPV was to increase to $750m, that’s £85m-£115m… share price approx 23p-31p.

If NPV was to increase to $1bn, that’s £115m-£150m… share price approx. 31p-40p.

So depending on how optimistic you are, those are ‘typical’ ranges! Either way, there’s a lot of potential upside here. Until anything is confirmed via RNS, there is of course a large element of risk, and that’s why the share price isn’t currently reflecting what we hope it could be very soon.