Member Info for candler

Also worth remembering that the existing non-binding offtake agreements were mostly created in years gone by, when there wasn’t a backdrop of China vs USA

I think the team will be doing a lot of work on how to best navigate the current macro situation across all aspects of BRES activities (eg Mike referenced in a recent interview that the CAPEX may increase slightly if they want American funding and to hit western markets, as then they’d have to purchase and build the mine etc with western equipment, not Chinese)

Good points well made.

I don’t necessarily disagree but I think that funding will unlock the offtake. Mike has said a few times that the offtakers are slightly sick of graphite projects not reaching production so aren’t interested in binding offtake agreements until production is funded and begins.

I agree that it’s a risk, but for me, it’s one of the smaller risks. BRES seem to be brilliant at forming relationships across all sectors, diversifying smartly across different markets, and the graphite is 99.99% quality. The market will be there… the product just needs to start coming out of the ground

So interesting and exciting that we’re at almost all time highs yet sentiment is still so strong. I think we’re all aware of the size of the opportunity here.

It says it all that us long term holders with significantly lower averages do not intend to sell a single share as we deem current valuation to be multiples off where it could/should be.

The US AAM tariff news is absolutely huge for the graphite market and will change the fundamental structure. China, cheap? Not any more. Blencowe’s economics were already very strong but strengthening Western supply chains can only provide positive pressure. I wonder if other Western markets will follow suit and implement similar changes..

Breaking out? No warrants left? 18p sale in Q1 because board have no intention of taking it to production? Might as well get all 3 out the way before 9am duster

Agreed on the resource estimates, won’t do much for the share price although there’s no harm in continuous positive news flow

That increased estimate is really impactful in funding conversations though just for proof that it’s a long term big tonnage project

On the offers to buy the company, I think Mike was saying that he’s not even entertaining any conversation around it (so definitely nothing formal will have come in yet)

And imo he’s completely right to do this as realistically, no suitable offer would come in with market cap currently at say £40m

I completely agree with every word you’ve just said Merchant

But I am just a little perplexed how it’s still trading at 7/8p and £30/40m market cap given how strong that DFS is and the macro headwinds around ex-China supply chains

It feels like financing is probable given these circumstances.

Warrants are a negative pressure but I don’t think they have as strong an impact as people here describe (obviously warrant sentiment is impactful but the warrants themselves are really small in terms of diluting our shares)

I feel that if the share wanted to rerate to say 15p, I don’t think the warrant overhang would hold that kind of push back?

Any sensible thoughts on why we’re still trading in this price range?

The most interesting part of the statement for me:

“US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), and to date US$4.75M of this grant has been disbursed to Blencowe. This support has been critical, and aside from the credibility our relationship with DFC provides we are confident this tier one financial institution will play a cornerstone role in the overall funding solution for Orom-Cross implementation. Other financial institutions have also engaged with us and we are building a strong base upon which we can be confident will ultimately deliver the substantial capital requirement to build our project.”

Definitely indicates that the recent American trip was useful & that the DFC want to fund us through to production

I was convinced before the DFS that we’d get a TR1 and someone was loading up, but it never came, and that was 2 million+ shares per day, for weeks

It could be warrants now yeah, if someone has a big sell order in and they’re just trying to gradually shift them without hurting the share price too much

“ The steep drop for rare earth-related shares was overdone, said analyst Reg Spencer of Canaccord in Sydney.

"The comments are in line with our interpretation of the White House strategy that they don't intend to prop up every rare earths project using a price floor mechanism - projects will have to be developed on their own merits," he said.

"The U.S. is still supporting the development of an ex-China critical minerals supply chain. They may just use other methods," he added.”

Https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-moves-away-critical-mineral-price-floors-sources-say-2026-01-28/

Interesting article on how the US intends to move forward in the critical minerals space. Summary is that whilst they still view an ex-China supply chain as absolutely crucial, they are not going to be willing to set price floors for minerals & therefore do not intend to prop up uneconomic projects with massive taxpayer funded money

Lucky for us, BRES has some of the best economics around… low capex, low opex, high quality graphite ✅

Warrants being cashed would be gradual selling like we’ve seen, typically it wouldn’t cause a dip like that

This is industry wide - linked to Trump & the leaks around removal of price floors (just means some added risk around all mineral projects)

Imo it’s fairly inconsequential for us (at least at this stage, given what we know so far)

Lad you’ve started 5 new threads in the last hour, give it a rest, you will get your 10%, your ramping has 0 impact on the share price

Us long term holders don’t need 10 minute updates as we are nowhere near a share price we’d be comfortable selling at

Anything interesting from the interview or Q&A? Would be great if someone could do a short summary, bullet points, for those who couldn’t join today

Lots of new posters here today. Assuming many will be after a short term 20%. Fair enough is all I have to say & wish you all success

I for one will not be selling a single share until a full rerate occurs and the market cap is much more reflective of fair valuation of the company.

That DFS is an absolute beauty, they’ve delivered on every single promise and timeline, there’s significant news flow in the near term particularly around financing - imo we will see a really strong few months and go many many multiples above where we are today. How could it not with $1.1bn NPV, low costs, and the best graphite in the world?

Personally can’t wait to get news of big institutions/cornerstone investors buying in which is inevitable

It is a marathon yes, but I do still find it slightly baffling how the economics can be so strong on a market cap that’s so low and it hasn’t popped yet!

Ignoring the typical NPV:market cap ratios (should put the market cap at 15-20% post DFS, which at $1.1bn NPV gives a £120-160m market cap - 4-5 multiples of current share price)

Current market cap of £30 million compared to fairly short term expected revenues at the below mentioned levels is borderline hilarious - this will rerate in coming months and I mean RERATE

£30m market cap company that will be generating hundreds of millions of £s per year, within a few years…

First glance everything looks excellent, low capex ratio, NPV $1 billion!!!!! They’ve hit the billion even at the higher discount rate. Wish they’d told us what the NPV would’ve been at discount rate 8 just so we could go even more crazy. IRR 96%. P1 production capex £40m shall we have a whip round? Tiny capex to get this project into production within a year or so.

But oh my god look at the planned numbers for beyond phase 2, so maybe 2030 onwards

175,000 tpa graphite

80,000 tpa SPG

They’ve got average planned sale prices in there - $1240 for concentrate and $2310 for SPG + waste

If you multiply that up you’re looking at something like $220m + $180m = $400m PER YEAR revenue

This project is going to do astronomical revenue in years to come

Just a reminder that with the current market cap being so low, we don’t need this DFS to have an enormous headline figure for the share price to motor upwards in coming weeks/months

Obviously we all hope we’ll see a huge headline £billion figure and a meteoric 10x rise

But actually, £30m current market cap means that as long as we get a decent NPV figure compared to the $482m PFS, with low initial and ongoing costs, we will see this project get funded, and that’s where we will see multi bags on current share price

Orom-cross graphite is the best in the world (proven by offtake testing) - this is the key defining point of the project - so as long as the DFS shows BRES can get it out the ground at low cost, we will see value as shareholders!!

GLA, defining week ahead

Another user pointed us to the detail of the PFS, where it shows that multiplying the average planned PFS yearly graphite production by the number of years of mine life (aka, calculating the total planned PFS production) gave a number of tonnes very similar to the total JORC estimate - so I think PFS included most of it

But we will find out very soon!