Member Info for candler

Yeah, but perception is king. I don’t think the share price should be at these levels still given what’s to come but it is because the market perceives risk and some delays. The good thing about perception is that it can change quickly - of course a big RNS instantly shifts it, but a positive tone and exciting comments and air of confidence in a Q&A can help to do the same if that RNS isn’t ready!

With that said, I do also think however that the current share price is important, and perception around the market in quieter periods is really important too. At the start of the year they were doing a great job with news flow and maintaining momentum. To me it feels like that’s halted slightly and it’s reflected in the share price, despite us being more advanced than ever before.

I really hope in his interview next week, Mike brings an air of confidence and moves to reassure the market that this will be a success story. Even just “we are delayed on financing compared to the timeline we communicated last year, because we are taking our time to do the right deal that values the company at many multiples of current market cap” - something very broad that tells the market that we’re grossly undervalued here, to maintain momentum and a solid base to kick on from

Just my opinion ofc

Yeah that last line is the key one that people need to hold in the front of their minds in quieter periods like this. A finance deal at project level (eg, BRES gets the £45m and gives away 25% of the project) is an instant valuation of the company. A big money outfit has done its due diligence and decided the project is worth 180m in that example I gave. And not just that, but actually, they think it’s worth much more, which is why they’re willing to invest in the first place at that %.

Mike said it himself in a recent interview, as soon as a project level deal is done, it serves as a current valuation on the project and therefore the company. Our market cap is currently under £40m, the potential is enormous.

I agree with most the points made below and it’s all healthy discussion so thank you

I do however think as the months go on here, given the timeframes for funding pushed by management in 2025, it would be nice to get some clarity on where we are at. Obviously a lot of it will be confidential but I think some top level comments on the progress being made, the overall strategy and potentially how P1 P2 and P3 funding solutions interact with each other would be nice to understand. For example, if the land and licenses for the P3 facility need to be progressed and it’ll take some time, and P1/P2 funding has dependencies on that, it would be nice to have it communicated. Or, if there needs to be a full pivot away from some previously shared MOUs due to macro circumstances, it would be useful to understand.

I think that’s a healthier situation than silence which is when people can start getting a bit tetchy. I think we are absolutely fine for now but if it does go much longer it would be nice to know these type of things to have confidence in (early) production in 2027 as planned. Just my opinion though of course.

It’s in a really interesting position now where it feels like all the pre-work has been completed, and the only question left is “is the funding solution happening or not?”

After the December DFS we thought we were in this position but actually then all the newer drilling results came through and the DFS was optimised. I do wonder how much extra work & time it would be to get the newer deposits Beehive and Iyan modelled into the DFS - this would be ideal of course but infill drilling can take many months + then add on the wait for results as we know. I assume the initial drilling at least lets BRES give an indication on an improved possible life of mine, if not including the new deposits in the DFS itself

Either way, every RNS we receive now is just going to be interpreted to try answer the question above, whether it’s getting funded or not. Today’s RNS is a very positive one for that question. If we have a few more RNS like this one that all show good signs (which would include any new offtake contracts) then I think we could see some significant share price action. A funded, producing mine will be worth many many multiples of this, so if it feels likely it’ll get there via continued news flow, we may get some movement sooner than we think..

There’s been a little strength yeah but I’m not sure it’s anything more than just a bounce off the short term bottom after being oversold

For me, £40m market cap is the market saying “this project looks great but we’ll believe it when we see it”. It therefore will struggle to break free until the market ‘sees it’ aka funding is announced and at good terms. Any deal struck for P1 at project level will value BRES at multiples of the current share price, given the amount of cash to be generated from the mine, so at that point we will see a prolonged period of real strength and rerate. How could we not, when it’s funded and going to produce hundreds of millions of £ in the near future and it’s just £40m market cap?

Fwiw I agree that any offtake news or tender wins would likely have a really positive effect too, mainly for the reason that it gives us confidence that funding and full production will happen - BRES wouldn’t win any tenders at this point in time unless it was deemed very likely (/inevitable) to be producing in the near future

I’ve topped up this afternoon, I’ve read this board (the good and the bad), I’ve done my research, I’ve followed the company and been invested for many years… this is the best position the company has ever been in with a MASSIVE DFS sat there waiting to be actioned

At 7p, given the progress in the last year, I just can’t weigh up the risk vs reward and come to the conclusion it’s a bad risk to take in any way. I’d be putting more in if I could!

14m, honestly with the amount they’ve been discussed on this board you’d think it’d be 10x that number. At least we’ve got another 6 months to blame the fact we’re not yet at 40p on the warrant overhang..

Agreed that differing opinions are fine and valuable when they’re conveyed logically and with evidence based points, rather than just pointless ramping or deramping

Fwiw I think it’ll have been something like this

1) get DFS out for December deadline

2a) get in front of key potential funding partners inc DFC, with view to sorting both P1 & P2

2b) oh wow those new drilling results are amazing aren’t they maybe we should be including these

3) western based potential funding partners convey their timelines and they’re longer than hoped/anticipated

4) let’s optimise DFS in the meantime and keep adding value

5) P1 needs to get sorted asap for first mover advantage and to meet 2027 timelines so focus on that

Would therefore expect to see P1 equity based (eg 45m for 20% orom cross) confirmed in the shorter term. Personally I didn’t perceive Mike’s comments to be negative at all in respect to getting something over the line soon. The RNS was great and imo he was just cautious in overpromising.

Also it’s fair to say that news flow related hype (which we’ve seen a huge amount of in the last 6 months) will mean we get lots of retail traders - buy on hype, sell on news types. This is fine and has helped with continued momentum and helped fight through the warrant overhang. We are near all time highs.

I’d hope we are now reaching a point where large institutional buyers with sticky hands (less news flow reactive) would be interested in making real money on Orom Cross longer term and that’ll kick us on to new levels.

I’m especially glad to see a focus on attracting institutional buyers as I think that’s what’s been missing in the last few months terms of driving the share price into the teens. Not sure why it hasn’t happened as they have mentioned the desire for it before but glad it’s in focus now. At current market cap, imagine an institution got sight of the project and the planned numbers and decided it wanted to buy 5% or 10% on the open market to get in early (as this is still early by institutional standards - it’s pre production).

That would be 10s of millions of shares that need to be found by the market makers to meet that institutional demand. Would be such a strong catalyst for a rerate.

That RNS is so professionally put together, with so much value clear and so much value still to expand into, it’s befitting of a £500m company not a £50m company

The share price will catch up and we will have a good pre-news run but as the big news starts arriving in coming months (specifically funding and offtakes) that’s when we will start to see some fireworks here

Very glad to see some specifics around complementary P1 and P2 production funding pipelines and the strategy for each of these

The market loves to hear “funding signed” and “offtake contract signed” so it’s great to hear that we’re into due diligence on funding agreements and that there are new offtake agreements already signed that they’re waiting to be able to release the market

Up the BRES!

Only time will tell on the form that P1 funding takes but Mike and team have seemed to be quite confident they won’t need to dilute existing shareholders to get that money

Project level equity via strategic partner is in my opinion the more likely route (aka giving away a % of orom cross, but crucially not diluting existing shareholders via release of more shares)

80% of a graphite producing orom cross is worth far more to us than 100% of a non producing orom cross

Personally not a big fan of the “pre rns rush” which we’ve seen quite a few times here where momentum stalls on the day even when the RNS is a stormer

Let’s hope if there is an RNS tomorrow that trend breaks! I think naturally as we become less speculative and get closer to production, momentum will stay stronger. There’s nothing pump and dump about BRES, it’s a hold-for-many-multiples play.

You’re right that warrants don’t appear on the books as normal share trades. When people here refer to warrants being sold, what they’re meaning are that the warrant holder paid for and was subsequently given their shares (not seen on the book, or via RNS due to the large equity release described below), and then that shareholder chooses to sell those ‘warrant shares’ on the open market for current market price

The value generated by moving to P2 would definitely be of interest to anyone looking to fund P1 (eg a strategic investor might put up 40m in return for a % of the project as they think when we get to P2 they’ll make a handsome return on that 40m)

But I don’t think necessarily that the P1 funding party has to be interested in funding P2 as well - maybe that would be beyond their means as it’s much more money required.

If it was to be a Samsung/Tesla funding P1, for project level equity & guaranteed future offtake, then yeah I’d expect them to follow through to P2 if successful in P1.

But if it’s a less established company/institution funding P1 then they may have no interest in funding P2 as well.

Mike mentioned lots of moving parts and multi-partner discussions across P1 and P2 quite recently so I’d assume he’s referring to this kind of situation.

Very hard to predict but I’d be leaning towards us seeing project level equity funding P1, probably also with guaranteed offtake in the future at agreed prices (eg xyz to give us the 40m and in return they get 20% of orom cross + guaranteed graphite every year)

And then a bigger institution (including possibly the DFC) to be more interested in P2 funding when the project is derisked by reaching P1

Agreed, as I think it’s been slightly up in the air with the approach BRES is planning to take with regards to moving everything to the West (from offtake contracts to capital expenditure to the downstream processing factory), or whether the Asian markets are still available to us at the same time. And, if everything was to move to the West, how big the rebuild job would look like in terms of getting all those things planned and up to speed.

This RNS reads really well and broadly indicates all is fine, going as planned, DFS due for an update following the great drilling results, cash in the bank, & multiple potential lenders in due diligence for first production 2027.

The only thing I didn’t see explicitly mentioned on first glance is whether the funding package will be P1 45m only or whether there will be a pathway included to P2 funding too.

Well people think there are delays because they initially mentioned Q1 as a funding timeframe and also aiming for first production by the end of 2026! Realistically especially given the war etc that wasn’t going to be achievable and imo they are not yet “delayed”, and all is still going to plan, but for newer investors who may have bought in during the DFS build up I can see why they may think as such

On noodle’s comment on no DFC initial involvement, I did infer Sasha’s comments to possibly say exactly that - he said project level/strategic route to P1 funding. I’m no expert but in my mind that’s saying the preferred (or necessary) route is going to be a strategic partner to get us to P1 production, at which point a larger debt-based DFC funding solution comes into play to ramp up quickly to P2. That would make sense to me based on the wording of some of the RNS too including today’s, where the hints seem to be around creating as many links to key US departments as possible to maximise the likelihood of a longer term partnership.

I’d hypothesis that it’s this level of complexity across different phases with different partners that is causing delays in getting funding finalised rather than the wait for the drilling results and JORC update, which whilst I agree are crucial, I just think BRES management will have been able to hint at what’s coming when in partnership discussions.

Thank you for sharing Sasha’s comments from the telegram chat, these are always useful to read

Imo everyone needs to stop sh*tting the bed. We reached all time highs and are now in a quiet period whilst the company tries to get complicated multi-partner funding solutions over the line. There’s also been a war and a large warrant overhang as we only recently exploded to all time highs (meaning all warrants were newly in the money).

Instead of crying about the ‘boring’ and ‘delayed’ drilling results maybe let’s be thankful that we’ve been able to see strong news flow in this area that has filled a time gap and allowed strong warrant churn in prep for the big news.

No one wants to see a 30% drop but the nature of the game is it goes up and down over time. We buy our shares and are betting it goes up more than it goes down. If you are so concerned about short term fluctuations, and they are short term relative to the project we’re investing in, I encourage you to fully sell out tomorrow and buy back in the day before the funding RNS drops (note - if it was that easy then we would all do it!!)