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Agreed OC. But the board of directors haven’t stated that funding is imminent. Jundee has, as he did a few weeks ago too. Jundee is realistically not an insider who knows more than anyone else.

The interview with Mike today is the latest real info we’ve got to go on, and my feeling from what he said is that they’re working through many potential funding partners and different options to get to production - aka, not imminent, but confident we’ll find a strong solution. Mike also mentioned p1 explicitly and how it’s necessary to get the project up and running to then be able to expand massively and bring the value (aka he didn’t mention that the funding deal would wrap together p1 and p2). All of this is still good progress but it’s not +300% next week unicorn status, it’s mid term bags.

Staying realistic and listening to/reading through the real info available is the best path forward imo

Ramp it’s very possible that the consistent 100k lumps we see through the day (that we’ve seen for many months with no TR1) are warrant sales aka a block seller, and that the 100k lumps are MMs reporting small retail purchases eating up a block seller’s warrant supply

Aka

I buy 25k shares

You buy 20k

Gary buys 30k

Steve buys 25k

Those 4 small retail purchases are aggregated and printed as a 100k greyed out trade, using supply from the block warrant seller

This would explain how we have seen this pattern for many many months without ever getting a TR1

That warrant overhang situation would also make sense given the pattern has been most prevalent after we have reached new highs (aka after more and more warrants have become ‘in the money’). It’s a positive for us too - massive retail strength snatching all the warrant shares & extra money in the bank reducing the risk of need for further dilution.

Perhaps this time is different but in the month build up to the DFS (and for some time after its release) we saw similar to this, but to an even larger extreme - blocks of 100k, 250k etc throughout the day. It was totalling millions of shares per day. I was certain that we’d get a TR1 at some point but we never did.

I’m still not sure what they are, but the regular and consistent pattern would make you think it’s a single entity buying/selling. The lack of TR1 makes me think it is warrants being sold into the market, & they’re being eaten up primarily by retail investors (like us)

Potentially the broker is churning through all those warrant shares through the day & reporting them to the market in clean aggregated chunks as retail investors buy them

Taken down on low volume, after a really strong couple of weeks, it’s totally normal price action. Consolidation, last remaining shares at these levels get bought up, and it’ll start pushing on again helped by upcoming newsflow.

Don’t get too excited by +5% or too deflated by -5% is always the best advice!

Yep that was me I bought at 12.2 and I’m so frustrated 1 trading session later that I’m selling everything at a 4% loss, sorry guys

FF I completely agree with what you’ve said there btw, it’s a huge thing for the company, but I just really doubt we’d see for example a +30% or +50% gap up at 8am the day it’s released as some were suggesting

As my original post said, it strengthens the case for funding and production, all the stars are aligning, and share price action is therefore more likely to be strong continued momentum with some consolidation, breaking new highs, rather than large % gap ups (so just tempering expectations really) - all just my opinion ofc based on share price reaction to previous RNS

Personal opinion is that increasing the size of the mineral reserves won’t have the biggest impact on share price - I think we all know the graphite is in the ground already, and the markets don’t tend to react massively to pure geological news

Imo the strong momentum is all around the many different stars that are aligning when it comes to the likelihood of this project getting funded.

An increased mineral reserve obviously helps that primarily by adding years to mine life. If the new mineral estimate comes with a new NPV (aka, the DFS mining schedule is changed to take full advantage of the new Iyan deposit), then I’d agree it could be a strong catalyst

Time will tell and I hope I’m proven wrong! But personally don’t see that gap up that you mention off the back of a geological RNS at this point - I do however see strong continued momentum, likely some periods of consolidation, and new highs

Weird isn’t it when you see the share price rise and feel great, and then you look at the market cap and realise it is still so so so far off ‘fair’ value based on the project economics and newsflow and macro context

This is just the start

Yeah totally agree FF but that’s my point, I didn’t realise that re-scheduling of the mining plan was in scope here in the shorter term. The Iyan and Beehive JORCs have always been referenced as mine life extenders by Mike before now.

Today’s tweet explicitly mentions improving project economics so I think it’s the first time there’s been a hint at incorporating Iyan/Beehive into the DFS, and using the newly drilled deposits to extract maximum NPV value which is another really big positive for us!!

One thing I’m a little confused about is how the DFS economics will change as a result of the upcoming Q1 and Q2 JORC estimates for Iyan and Beehive. I’m sure that in the past Mike said that increasing the mineral estimate may not have a material effect on economics or NPV, and it’s more about extending the life of mine and how that’s attractive to potential partners. I think this is because with the current mining schedule there is a heavy discount applied to earnings 10 15 or 20 years down the line which is where the extra graphite reserves would be.

Is the tweet suggesting that the mining schedule and/or production rate may be changed (increased) as a result of the really strong Iyan drilling results? That would be a hugely significant outcome…

Another great day, touching and setting new all time highs. Well done all holders and here’s to many many more days like this. Huge continuous newsflow upcoming with the perfect macro backdrop. DFC would be great but either way, we will have many funding options and will pick the best one. Imo we are still extremely undervalued and we feel very strong at these levels. Let’s hope for more of the same!

Yes & for me the biggest thing is the feeling that we are still so undervalued at this share price and it feels so daft to consider selling here

Would be interesting to hear other views but I personally am a long term holder with a lower average and I do not intend to sell a single share anywhere near 9p, as I believe the project and company is worth multiple times this value (and that’s my pre funding opinion too - confirmed funding would improve my sentiment even further)

If most are of this opinion, which I think we are, it bodes really well for when we start pushing upwards as the selling resistance from the 20% traders will be minimal

Great write up on the current situation here.

Volume is strong today & it feels like it’s getting ready to start pushing to new highs in coming days/weeks.

Yeah I’m confident they won’t sell it too early if they don’t get to a target valuation multiples above where we are today… but they do have a lot of skin in the game here, a 30p+ sale would be big money for all involved.

Who knows? Maybe the right offer will come in, and the BOD will decide that it’s a perfect time to cash in before the mine build actually happens, and we all make money. Maybe the right offer won’t arrive, and the BOD do take it through to production (which I think they’re fully preparing to do btw), and we all make even more money longer term.

Yeah agreed, I think they’ll look to go heavy with news to get this running up over the next 6/8 weeks. Imagine share price moves into the teens, then p1 funding secured, then +50% premium offer comes in… that offer could be at 30p+ per share… hard to see that being turned down

I see this website says £50.01m but I think the latest total share count issued by the company was 477.3m in early January?

At 9p it would make the market cap approx 43m

Although it could potentially have grown slightly larger than that if warrants have been taken up since that update, as these haven’t been reported to the market

That’s my understanding anyway, happy to be corrected. Still so so undervalued either way.

I mean I’d be very happy with the lower teens first!!

Is that actually something you’ve heard maybe from Telegram or some other channel? Or just a hopeful comment?

I know we’re all a bit bored of it… but has anyone got the latest known breakdown of the warrants situation?

Are all warrants in the money here at 9p?