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What approach do you think they’ll take towards separating out those different phases of production? Mike has mentioned that they’ll just be looking for phase1 financing initially (and that this means whoever we end up with could change for future phases financing too)

Do you think they’ll split out the NPV into those phases? I would think perhaps not (as the phase1 NPV, considering it’s just a starter position, would be quite low) - I think a total NPV figure only is more likely

But then I wonder how the market will react to this separation of phases - perhaps the total massive NPV figure won’t be fully factored into the market cap/share price, as those latter phases would still have risk attached even once funding is sorted for p1?

Is the 55% micronised/SPG figure taken from the presentation?

LW I do agree but for what it’s worth, I think that word “transformational” could be used to describe an event where you massively derisk a $500m NPV and take the company to the verge of funding and production

Fair value for a company in that ^ situation would be that 15-20% of NPV that Mike has referenced before - call it £100m - which would be fairly transformational for a company where peak market cap is right now and is £30m ish

Obviously also hoping that the NPV number is higher than that, but just tempering expectations too :)

Yeah and let’s be clear too, that a DFS NPV of say $600m which is at the lower end of many estimates, with low capex and all the other positives we hope for:

Short term: we’d be looking for 15-20% of DFS NPV so £100m market cap perhaps - over 3x what it is today

Medium term: a $600m NPV with low capex would get funded to production, let’s say 30-40% DFS NPV, £200m market cap, so 5-6x higher than current market cap

That’s the lower end estimate and would still be a fantastic return

Of course we’re all hoping for the higher end in which case we could see a bit of a rocket

Thanks for all the thoughts

SI that’s exactly the kind of info I was looking for thank you. I do think that based on those PFS numbers, they must’ve been using inferred resources in the PFS as well as the more concrete reserves - but yeah will be interesting to see how that translates to mine life. Its also a huge green tick to have that converted successfully to reserves now.

Who knows what the final NPV number will be, hopefully it’s a significant step on the $482m with the SPG plant involved and hopefully capex under $100m. If so, whatever the NPV number, we’re going to be looking at fair value multiples above where we are today

Hi hoping someone may be able to provide some insight (not just AI responses pls as I’ve already tried!!)

The PFS NPV was $482m. Does anyone know if that was calculated using only ore ‘reserves’ or was that calculated using non-reserves too??

The headline figure from the new JORC today is +47% reserves and my understanding is that only reserves can be classed as mineable for a DFS… this means that the DFS NPV will be calculated solely from reserves… but is that the case for the PFS too?

If so then that +47% figure becomes absolutely massive on the new DFS NPV, but I’m not sure

We’ll see LW but I think a nice steady continued push would be a good day today

Great RNS today, major derisking step, but I think it’s the DFS that will cause the rerate if it’s positive as we hope - the DFS will be much more eye catching and understandable to the market than today’s geological statement!!

Basically, we’ve gone from “we think we have 24mt in camp lode/northern syncline” to “we know we have 26mt in camp lode/northern syncline… oh and by the way, we’ve got another identical 2 areas so it’ll double next year”

“We know” is so much stronger than “we think”

“We know” gets financed, as they refer to in the RNS

No headline figure as it’s just infill drilling (confirming what we already knew) - but that’s a REALLY strong RNS with a future pathway to massive expansion

Yeah I think you’ve pulled out the most interesting segment there - potential to double the JORC estimate next year

That’s a really strong RNS - confirming the reserves is a major derisking step

Mike himself (CEO) has recently referenced the 15% of NPV figure as a more appropriate market cap - imo 35% is crazy high and we won’t get there til finding solution is in place

You’re talking to yourself fella shush

Couldn’t agree more, don’t get why anyone does it, has literally 0 impact on share price

Yes has been the case for approx a month, no idea what is it, there’s been no TR1s for big buyers as expected a couple of weeks ago

Hi SuM,

Agreed that the wording isn’t totally clear and we won’t know for sure until the DFS is released

On page 37 though it has a breakdown of the $62m PFS capex - states it’s for the ‘start up’ position of the plant which at the time was 36,000tpa - includes $27m for the plant itself, $8m for camp/facilities etc etc

So I really doubt £20m total capex would be enough to get to phase 1 production given those figures - I think the $100m total capex figure is more accurate

But we’ll soon find out of DFS release!

And an infinite supply of it

And solid licenses

And a supportive government

And macro headwinds with a need to secure mineral supply chains

And ESG compliant

And low capex/opex costs

And off takes agreements soon to become binding

And multiple funding options

Okay I’ll relax

I also think that the £6m figure for the amount that can be raised by warrants is a typo - I saw the same figure - but further down, it’s given a few times as £4m, and there’s actually a warrant breakdown too (total share, total warrants, total options etc)

Not certain on that though!

Either way, as someone said yesterday, it’s a really small figure that BRES needs to raise compared to its peers - we have some of the lowest costs in the business

Hi, no, I believe the £20m figure is “BRES contribution” to the total capex

From the PFS, capex was $62m… but it’s expected to be significantly higher due to lots of different reasons including rising capital costs & enhances to production plans

For the DFS, Mike has mentioned $100m as an approx figure/target

Of that $100m, as per the prospectus, BRES will have to raise £20m ish

Well, they’re PFS figures in there from a good few years ago so they will be updated once the DFS lands - and almost certainly will increase due to a variety of reasons. Mike said in an interview recently they were hoping to keep it below $100m in the DFS and that would be an exceptional result

From memory of PFS, I think it was ballpark average $1300 revenue per tonne graphite, and $500 processing cost per tonne

So 20,000 tonnes is $16m ‘profit’, per year, in phase 1

And that figure will get dwarfed as production ramps up, and also doesn’t take into account the SPG plant later on that’s expected to increase the graphite sale price significantly

Https://data.fca.org.uk/artefacts/NSM/DirectUpload/NI-000134411/NI-000134411.pdf

A few really interesting comments in today’s prospectus document

- BRES has already held preliminary discussions with several financing groups including the DFC

- BRES is targeting an all-debt funded project financing package (aka no shareholder dilution!!!)

- BRES will be looking to raise approx £20m as “our part” of the financing package

- BRES is aiming for funding sign off in H1 2026, then approx 9 months to build the plant, so first production early 2027

- BRES is fully funded for financing stage

Anyone know if we can read anything from the £20m BRES contribution figure with regards to what the total capex figure might be? Any examples on what % a company would normally have to contribute themselves?