The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Now ITP sale has missed inclusion in H1 figures let’s hope when the results come that there is some debt reduction without it.
Even a slight reduction would be a positive sign and indicate that the company is on the right track and that recovery is sustainable.
ITP is probably giving a nett profit of somewhere between £5-10m a month so a little delay is not all bad for The LTH.
Reinstatement of the 4 engined A380’s with the big airlines is great news.
Getting these mothballed engines back into service is a revenue stream thought lost.
High margin service work.
Mike 123456
Yes in reply more money spending on defence ! Already currently at record book taken highs ! 50 Billion back order of works and the list endless !! We will be only wishing it will be under the £1 by August to just keep buying ! I personally can’t throw anymore in only monthly now as thrown nearly £400k at it !! So back to monthly top ups now
Pretty sure order book was 70 billion in 2017.
I agree. But they need to keep on track with the original equipment manufacturing cost reduction. To date they have removed 30% of cost and expect to break even in H2 2022. This is incredible but it is going to be increasingly difficult to achieve with current inflation.
But when they do turn civil aero to a heathy profit and start paying down debt the sp will take off.
Defence and power are solid growth business so using P/E multipliers along with a solid aero business in a few years it’s easy a £20bn market cap as per someone else’s post recently.
SMR is expected to give a £5bn annual T/O but is expected to need £1bn in extra funding over the next 5 years, from the last update £500m will come from RR and the other £500m from other investors/funding.
So for the moment don’t think SMR or electrical will be having much impact on share price although it gives a opportunity for early birds.
The £50BN back order gets spread all over time and time and time again but what does it mean. It must include the LTSA’s etc but over what time frame 10 years?
ie does the back order figure mainly consist of service agreements for a decade or more into the future.
I assume that the submarine contracts are for some 30 years as an example.
So the £50BN+ figure is great for the future security of the business but doesn’t mean a bumper year is ahead of us.
Does anyone know more about how the orders work?
This is why I joined this message board. This is all great information. There must be many RR investors out there that have so much knowledge about how the company operates its many divisions. I’m not talking about sensitive information just the nitty gritty stuff that’s not glossy enough for the mainstream media. So guys and gals please keep sharing.
Apologies if already posted but this was release end of last week. Hope link works. (Phone doesn’t copy links very well).
https://www.rolls-royce.com/investors/results-and-events.aspx
Been following RR for a while now and didn’t know how the total care package worked. Very informative post, thanks pickedpeck.
Guess that means that a reasonable proportion of RR balance sheet assets are engines in the total care package.
Thanks Arsenal, appreciate the comments.
You are spot on, I am a director in a successful engineering business and an ex Royal Navy Engineer with nuclear propulsion training in the RR PWR. My son is coming to the end of a PhD in advanced computer modelling with Rolls Royce. So i know a bit about engineering and a bit about business but I have to confess I get a bit lost in the technical financial jargon and abbreviation that pops up on this site.
For the record I am pro RR and heavily invested at 86p average.
But RR core business and product is an absolute DOG. To have a successful engine you need to spend hundreds of millions if not billions on R&D utilising the most advanced materials, the best engineers in the world and pioneer new techniques. Hopefully after spending billions and doing all this work you will have the most efficient, lightest, most reliable, best thrust to weight/size and be fully safe in use because life depends on it. But if you get it wrong you just need to keep throwing them millions at it until it works.
But when you get all this right you then get to market the product and hopefully sell this most amazing piece of technology for a loss. Yes a loss, not even at cost price.
But if all the stars align the maintenance contracts for these engines might eventually give a small profit.
I don't know the exact figures but I guess with the Trent problems and covid, Aero has been a net loss business over the last 10 years maybe even 20 years.
On the plus side Defence and Power systems are fantastic business' with great margins and growth potential.
SMR & Electrical could have explosive growth.
Finally the board are changing the Aero business model and improving profits.
As soon as the debt is on a clear and sustainable reducing trajectory I believe the sp will fly and as I said earlier I am pro RR but I am not blind to the problems we face.
I hope you are wrong William.
I am not in this for a fast buck. If RR can turns things around as does seem to be happening then the potential is phenomenal. I'm not a big investor and don't buy shares often, in fact the last share i bought was GREGGS in the late 90's. It was a great company with massive potential and big plans but it was out of favour. Everyone wanted DOTCOM's instead of solid companies. It turned out to be great investment.
Anyway I have a big chunk of my little farm on this one now and I am looking for £3+ in a few years time.
Please, no fire sale takeover.
Thanks Tipsey,
I read this article yesterday, really annoying. The crux of it was positive but the headline was the typical sensationalising attention grabbing crap "UK's nuclear power push will add to energy bills, ministers say".
The majority of people don't realise that as we make this transition to low carbon energy there is no viable way of keeping the lights on when the wind doesn't blow without nuclear base load capacity.
Good flight data international seats are only 30% lower than pre-covid and forecast to rise.
https://www.oag.com/coronavirus-airline-schedules-data
The last few years have been really crap for Rolls.
Problems with the Trent engine and then covid have had a massive negative impact.
But now the engine problems are long gone and covid is not such a problem.
With its high efficiency engines and increasing flying hours the revenues and orders will return.
The defence business is solid and would likely be a good dividend paying stock in its own right, as would power systems.
In its own right RR SMR would currently be speculative stock pick, pending orders it would be a growth stock.
But all these entities benefit from the group structure. RR spends billions on research and continues to do so. This research includes investment in universities and technology centres all around the world. They look for the lightest, strongest and most resilient super alloys of tomorrow. They own so many patents that will be used in future engines and technologies.
For me its just a matter of time for RR glory days.