Member Info for Calder5

From 6th October RNS

“The company expects to see initial results from the higher density NGL's before the end of November 2023.”

Hopefully they will give some current (higher) production figures at this webinar.

I was over optimistic regarding increased production related to the new GGS. However reading the RNS’s again it’s clear the benefits won’t be realised until Q4.

15th August

COPL is pleased to announce that the gas gathering system is functioning and was commissioned on time and under budget in July 2023.

6th September

Currently, the Company is determining the best level of efficiency and is restarting NGL gas injection in September. The Company is focused on delivering production results in Q4 2023

I look forward to a little increase in September numbers but mostly a RNS sometime in Q4 detailing stable injection and recovery figures. Fingers crossed.

Todays Times

SSN-Aukus will be the largest, most powerful and advanced attack submarines the Royal Navy has operated and will eventually replace the Astute class, which BAE Systems builds at its site in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria. The funding follows the Aukus announcement in March by the UK, Australia and the United States.

Pretty sure RR have been receiving money and been working on this for sometime. But my big take from recent news is the commitment the UK is going to have a fleet of AUKUS submarines too. This will become a massive RR defence order spanning decades.

Re Mafee’s post: 18 Sep 2023 21:18

You use a % net back of 30.8 based on Q2 costs to calculate a projected net back on current gas price.

However I assume production costs will not be proportional to crude price and are fixed, they may even reduce as consequence of a greater economy of scale. They data you provided is useful to highlight the problems however I think the net back will be better than the percentage you indicated.

Wookiee: I agree completely.

Eazy - If current production is already at 1500 it would be great news.

I have spent time investigating where the money is being spent before deciding to invest. Its all going on the loan, bonds and CapEx on plant upgrades. Completing the JV last year would have been a fire sale. The company is now in a much better position for negotiation. The JV is a route to a speedy production ramp rather than a bailout.

Q2 netback was about $2m (crude @ $71.75av & 1103bbl/d)

This does not cover loan and bond interest payment which are over $3m per Q.

However increase production to 1,500bbl/d with current crude price netback is something like $4.6m.

2,000bbl/d puts it at $6m per Q.

I think we will see production at 1,500 - 2,000 per day by year end which makes the company profitable, funded and sustainable. Add in the JV and it just gets better.

“Nonsense “ was a bit strong Wolster.

The RNS at the beginning of may said H1 was producing steady at 17 mmscf/d and the gas prices were around the £1 mark.

I think we are close to the point it will be viable to open H1. But that’s just my opinion.

Vos Enterprise has been very busy at Blythe for the last few days. Going to make an assumption and say they could be bringing H1 online. Current gas prices will make it viable.

Nothing like the quality of RR but an interesting AIM punt - COPL

Ah well at least they haven’t forgotten about it.

Thanks for the info.

Something going on at Southwark.

Putford Jaguar has been working in the area and is now within 100m of platform.

Can sell 1m shares at 1.7p no problem but can not get quote to buy 200k shares.

This market is f’ed up.

If no shares are available price should be going up, simples

33rd round licences to be granted in September

With further rounds to come.

Article in todays Times

“Rishi Sunak will commit himself today to pressing ahead with oil and gas exploration and production in the North Sea as he seeks to open up dividing lines with Labour.”

They need about £1.5m a month after royalties and production costs to cover quarterly bond payments, wages and administrative expenses. Current gas price is providing this and with the forecast of a severe winter in Europe gas prices are going to get high and the cash will build. It’s likely they will be able to fund their share of a drill, maybe two during winter. But the bond remains an issue. I await everyday for an RNS update on this. The return on the bond is significant and I don’t believe there will be any need to give much more away other than an extension but this needs to happen soon.

Bedeto you should have divided by 12 not 4 for the monthly calculation. The quarterly payment is 1/3 of your calculation.

Its disappointing flow stabilised at 32 and not closer to 40. But it’s a comprehensive update and outlines a clear strategy. The BOD are working hard to deliver and I am reassured and happy to hold. I expect we will see some movement upwards today.

26th June flow rate was at 20mmscfe/d and was being built to to the full rate over the coming week.

We have absolutely no reason to doubt that gas flow is not around or even over 40mmscfe/d and it’s even possible that H1 is being feathered in.

See last RNS. No mention of 22mmscfe/d.