Member Info for Cacher

As you know, Kestrel is of limited life in terms of the remaining royalty area, so anything more than 4-5 years out is of little consequence. Coking coal demand and its use in steel making isn't going anywhere for the foreseeable imo.
Kestrel ships to India, Korea and Japan predominantly. Looking at things logically, if Julian expected there to be issues with Kestrel over the latter half of 2020 and into 2021 I wouldn't expect him to be continuing with the share buybacks. LIORC declared it's dividend a couple of weeks back - and that included a special dividend too.
From my point of view, APF and the team need to demonstrate how the market can view APF as an ESG investment proposition. Altius are managing to do it with their renewables arm. For APF, on the face of it it's very 'coal dominated'. Obviously we know what the plans are, and how coal will tail off as far as APF is concerned, but I'd like to see APF getting out there and pushing it's green investment credentials, and talking about how the nickel/cobalt asset is progressing, and how Largo's vanadium project is a world leader. Also there's the uranium exposure, and how the McLean Lake Mill would be a buzz of activity during a uranium bull market, and APF would be taking it in with their royalty over the toll mill.

Chilston, it was in the Adaro Q2 report which was published in August. Here's the snippet for Kestrel:
Kestrel Coal Mine (Kestrel)
In 1H20, saleable production at Kestrel reached 3.10 Mt and sales reached 3.25 Mt, 10% lower and flat y-o-y. This figure included the 1.21 Mt and 1.27 Mt saleable production and sales in 2Q20. Taking the current situation into account, Kestrel revised its production base case for 2020 to 6 Mt. Kestrel sold its hard coking coal mainly to major customers in the Asian markets and has contracted the majority of its sales for 2020. India remained as the largest sales destination in 1H20 followed by South Korea and Japan. Despite the challenging market condition due to COVID-19, China has been a bright spot for demand of raw materials used in steel making driven by strong steel production as a result of stimulus measures targeting the construction sector. Adaro Energy (48%) and EMR Capital Ltd (52%) own 80% of Kestrel.

Welcome Chilston. The bulk of Kestrel coking coal is bound for India. Julian confirmed this in one of the interviews a month or two after lockdown began. If I have time later I'll try and dig it out and post it here.

*weakness

My TRR investment is small in comparison to my other royalty and streaming investments. That said, I've been impressed with how TRR have gone about their business thus far.
Wouldn't mind another bite at the £1 shop Albus, though to be honest it's great value at the moment anyway. Saw yesterday that another of Altius' base metal royalties had run into problems. Mechanical faults at the 777 copper mine. This is in addition to the Chapada copper mine operated by Lundin. Will certainly impact revenues for the next couple of quarters, so will add there on any significant weak was too.

New interview with the Mining Journal
https://youtu.be/8Bce9RcCkws

I'm sure they would.
Altius have done just that recently, taking a 'too good to refuse' deal on some existing coal royalties, and are recycling the additional income into their renewables arm. ESG funds were supportive of the move

Funnily enough I was thinking that not too long ago. If TRR got to the stage where they were generating $15-20m p/a and the market cap (like here) didn't reflect the inherent value, it would make a lot of sense to buy them out, and make a stride towards replacing Kestrel cashflow.

I think APF are pinning some hope on that being the case. They've openly stated that Piaui has the potential to be the second most lucrative revenue stream in the portfolio. With nickel expected to be much higher than $14k it could be a fantastic result for APF. Last I heard they were targeting the end of 2022 for commencement of production, but they have mentioned a 'quickstart' option too, whereby they'd be in smaller scale production within 12 months, and then ramp up from there. With US government backing now, that might be the preferred option

Would be nice to see APF release some news on the developments at Piaui. Perfect opportunity for them to get noticed more

Usually first week of November

US invests in British miner to fight Chinese control of rare metals

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/04/us-invests-british-miner-fight-chinese-control-rare-metals/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AwB5FmTW3vrs

TRR have a £10m debt facility, though Adam has stated he's confident that it could be extended if needed

Here's the Crux Investor interview:

https://youtu.be/rh4v5CMLsxo

One or two by the end of the year is what I believe Julian said recently

I'm in both.
APF and TRR are at very different phases of development. TRR have just started out, with the intention of building that critical mass that'll enable them to pay a regular meaningful dividend. APF on the other hand is at the point where it needs to find new revenue streams in order to be able to maintain its payout to shareholders. At a £30m valuation I think TRR is attractive, and in the 4 months since inception the management team have shown they have the ability to source and close some shrewd deals.
APF have a very capable management team too. In my opinion there's not many that have the same understanding of commodities/cycles/forecasting that Julian has.

Adam Davidson (TRR CEO) said in a recent interview that he doesn't think it'll be long before we see a base metal royalty company achieve a $bn valuation. The jury is out on who is most likely, or whether it'll be achieved through M&A, but it's certainly an exciting space to be in over the medium/long term.

Ex -entitlement date is 23/10/20

Here's the webinar:
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meeting/trident-royalties-investor-webinar

Excellent presentation, and very good Q&A. Adam able to go into more depth, with the presentation lasting around an hour.
Will post a link here when it's available, for anyone that missed it.

6pm start for those that can make it. Details are on the recent RNS.
I understand it will be recorded.