Member Info for c2645sg

TheAnserIsNo,

Tell us what you think the Q1 results will be? Add some actual substance to this chat, rather than the uninformed nonsense you post daily.
Are you capable of that?
Or just another multi ID mentallist, pretending to be me but getting nowhere close?

Avocet said 'no need for dilution" right before a rights issue, hah
So I guess we can ignore you from now on, utterly clueless.
And a ramper, to 300p in fact. 6 times what the sp is now.
Be careful who you trust, folks.

avocet123
Posted in: TUI
Posts: 3,278
Price: 170.95
No Opinion
RE: dilution Next30 Jan 2023 16:56
Gav we don't really care if 150p is coming or not, because this will go to 300p easy in the near future.

avocet123
Posted in: TUI
Posts: 3,278
Price: 170.95
No Opinion
RE: Think About It This30 Jan 2023 22:13
Noone is listening to you gav. Shouting dilution when there is no need for it is a typical deramper scare tactic.

avocet123
Posted in: TUI
Posts: 3,278
Price: 172.85
No Opinion
RE: dilution Next30 Jan 2023 12:58
Ade, you talk rubbish. Why on earth would TUI need to dilute?
There is a lot of cash in the kitty, and absolutely no need for dilution.
This is a typical deramper scare tactic.

Backward looking? I just spent time calculating how much their interest payments are going forward, AFTER the RI, and you claim I am backward looking? Hah.

There is none as blind as those that don't want to see.

Absolutely no point in engaging with you, you will always be correct.
The share price sure does agree with me a lot more than it does you, though.

Rose tinted spec wearers, the worst investors of them all.

Q4 2022 interest expenses came in at: 129.5m
Therefore c.518m per annum.
This RI saves them 80-90m per year in interest payments, so let’s subtract 85m.

Interest costs are still 433m per annum.
(Market Cap 3bn.)

TUI Group Financial Information
Year. / Revenue. / Net Profit
2015/16 €17.18 billion. €1.15 billion
2016/17 I€18.53 billion €910.9 million
2017/18 €19.52 billion €780.2 million
2018/19 €18.92 billion €531.9 million
2019/20 €7.94 billion (€3.13) billion (loss)
2020/21 €4.73 billion (€2.48) billion (loss)
2021/22 €16.54 billion (€0.21) billion (loss)

So let’s assume TUI’s profits are close to 2018/19, this year.
The profit is wiped out by interest expenses.

So the debt is still expensive, they will struggle to pay any more of it off until 2024/25. My guess as to why the SP is on the slide.

I've already said that shorts have all the same decisions as longs, throughout a RI.
They have to decide whether to do nothing and dilute their position, or take out more shorts to cover the new shares. It's obviouslly more complicated as you have to borrow stock, but in essence the same decisions as longs.

There is no borrowoable stock for PIs, so only IIs can short right now.
When you create so many new shares (2.6x as many in thi instance) it's pretty obvious that there is more borrowable stock around.

Total financing costs in 2022 were £350m, the author only quotes £120m.
Utterly naive or dishonest reporting.

AML expects H1 2023 cash flow similar to H1 2022:
That was a loss of £234m.

Cash holdings are £583m as of December 2022.
583 - 234 = 340m cash left in 2 months.

AML had to raise £635m when the cash level dropped to £400m, last November.
So you can see how close a cash call is.

Thanks Stille.

Just reading up on EZJ now. 7% rump left over at 410p, the share price dipped to 294p just after RI.
That's 28% below the offer price, so anyone buying in thinking it would quickly rebound was most definitely early.

Debt rating for TUI will definitely be re-rated in the coming weeks/months.
Will read more on the debt this weekend and report anything useful to the board.

MMs need to collect shares of weak holders?
Are you insane? There are literally hundreds of millions of new shares hitting the market!
It’s not just about Monday, AML slid for days after hitting the offer price when the shares hit the market.

Anyone who tells you aml needed an RI to survive but TUI needed it for other reasons should not be trusted.
RI’s are the last resort in fending off insolvency. Insolvency is when you can’t afford to pay your debts. TUI’s debts were becoming unmanageable, so they took on the RI.
The debts still stand at 2.5 billion after the raise, and interest rates are rising.
That interest eats into the bottom line, exactly the same as AML. Making profit just to pay off interest on debt.
Running to stand still.

Does anyone know what TUIs debt is rated at?

20% down when the shares were £9.30, no wonder you are bitter!
Maybe best to blame you own judgement rather than me who called it correctly, and warned everyone.

NRL2901
Posted in: AML
Posts: 195
Price: 930.20
No Opinion

RE: What's going on06 Apr 2022 13:27
I agree with you carpy. Only two things I would add are:
1) next results are, in my opinion, most important since H1 2020 results when were worried share price may go back to 40p old money. Cannot believe share price back to where it was around time of those results given progress made by business in 2 years since. Need to see progress from the new models impacts p and l;
2) biggest lesson for me is to bank profits. Most of my investments have been 20-95% up at some stage. And now in red. Aston was 95% up now 20% down atm. Feel will come good. But a learning point for me nonetheless.

If you'd listend to me rather than Dimi et al, you'd have saved yourself tons of cash.
Instead you filtered me and lost tons of cash.
Ah well, lesson learned eh?
Thought not.

NRL2901
Posted in: AML
Posts: 195
Price: 680.00
No Opinion

RE: C2610 May 2022 23:37
I have not posted in a while but echo large parts of Kong1’s post of 21:59. Had faith in company but why Gregor decided to leave and Moers was sacked are two key things I cannot gloss over and creating doubts in my mind. Fundamental question for me is what qualifications in Stroll’s background makes him believe he knows the automotive industry better than Moers and Gregor. I have filtered c2 long ago so cannot see his or her comments. But such a steep decline in share price over the past 15 months has to now be a major concern. If the directors believe in the business then why no directors buys since q1 results? Feared a long month before q1 results and fear a long several weeks until q2 results. Who knows where the bottom is in current climate. Dimi’s 550p support line coming into view a lot quicker than anyone anticipated.

I have a feeling a lot of people are going to get rinsed next week, thinking they are on to a sure-fired winner.

Concensus amonsgt ALL analysts is £1.76, but you just quote the highest one because it suits you?
Suprised Ghini isn't asking you for the source ;)

https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/gb:aml/forecast

Bloomberg didn;t say that, some thinktank within the holiday industry did.
Saying you exopect something is not the same it definitely happening.
The BoE said inflation was transitory, hah!

You say scaremongering,I say honesty.
How do you expect growth from a holiday company in a recession Jock?

We're looking at a recession coming.
People can;t save any money on food/mortgages/cars, so where are they going to find davings when theor mortgage triples coming off a fix?
Holidays, and other discretinary spending.

If you think this is a definite nobrainer rise after the RI, then that's dangerous thinking.

In a recession, EVERYTHING contracts.

One more 5% drop and we’re are in the 480s!

This thread is becoming a thing dreams are made of.
People actually discussing PE ratios.
Can't remeber the last time I saw that happen on LSE.

Just remember it's not all about PE, or PEG. If everyone could do that, computers would be trading for us.
Us humans have to decide whether a share price is undervalued or overvalued, and we use all tools at our disposal, but we can still get it wrong.

As soon as you think it's a sure-fired thing, some other curveball comes into play.
KNowing fundamentals sure does help though.
'Circle of competence' Buffet calls it I think.

I think Equality is being a little harsh with his PE ratios.
I don't think we will see the £3's.
Once RIs are out the way it would be difficult to find worse news.

I am still dong my homework on this one, so not sure if I will invest, but it woldn;t be any higher than £4.90.
It could well be lower than that tomorrow and we still have all the UK shares to hit the market.

Whats the main listing here, London or Frankfurt? Frankfurt I am guessing?

I always drip feed my buys and sells as it's impossible to uy the very bottom and sell the very top.

Great post equality.
Look at the the haters, all the folk who had no patience and got in too early, dreading the margin call on Monday.
The stockmarket transfers money from the impatient to the patient.
Hold..... hold......

You'll be right Jock, Blackrock definitely know nothing.

Some people, honestly.
"I've invested and will say anything to defend my stake. I even think posting on a public BB for a FTSE 250 company can sway the price".
Radio rental.