Member Info for BwanaMakubwa

The problem with equity swops is that they do not actually increase the aggregate institutional ownership,if I understand it properly.
So Helicon has taken the economic interest (all upside or downside) in the stock from a third party investor in exchange for an agreed interest payment (no idea how much).When Helicon closes the swap the economic interest reverts to the third party.
So who is the third party-this is the easy bit, has to be La Mancha,Glencore or Orion as they are the only parties with over 8% shareholding-the size of the Helicon swop.I am going to guess it is either La Mancha because they have a large position and want to reduce a bit of equity risk in return for income, or Glencore because their stake is strategic ahead of a bid.They do not care what happens to the share price in the next year, but instead can earn some decent income knowing that they own 9% ish of HZM very cheaply and can call it back when they are ready to bid.Say hypothetically Helikon swapped at 97p and the swop is closed at 200p,then Helikon walk away with 103p profit less interest paid to Glencore and Glencore retain all the original stock ate whatever average price they have.
This is my understanding of the swop arrangement-otherwise known as a CFD or Contract for Difference,but if I am technically wrong on any point please correct me.

This has been a pretty disappointing year as far as the HZM share price is concerned, but like others I have had a couple of top ups this week.
My hope is that as we enter next year and production becomes more of a reality we will see the shares starting to gain traction as both a pure nickel play and an inevitable takeout candidate.I hope we get news soon of the first monthly bank drawdown-given the shenanigans of the last fundraise I feel this is quite an important hurdle to cross.
We also hopefully will see announcements re Vermellho next year-that should be an opportunity for a bit of sex and violence.
I hope our new IR man is putting in the hours-we are still too small and our daily volumes to minuscule for large institutional investment-but there are plenty of special situation funds, smaller institutions and hedge funds who would take a serious look at us now if our management can get infront of them.IR has been a serious weakness to date and this must change.I would like to hear a bit from our IR guy what his plans are to further institutionalise the register.
I agree with several posters here that La Mancha and Orion will be looking for 4-5 times their money.
I am not convinced that Glencore will end up as the ultimate owner.Personally I feel Vale will want this badly-nobody knows better than them the value of our nickel "district".An ultimate Brazilian owner may also sit better with the Lula Government.
Anyway good luck all and I hope my gut feeling now proves somewhat correct.I will add more when funds become available.

Now both trades cancelled-did look a bit odd.

...about 7.5 million gone through in last 20 mins at 90.5p.

...on their £11m underwrite.

Agreed Panda-I am hoping they will all be flying economy now in their trips to Brazil.

...I thought with a $100m plus contingency they had covered this.
I have always worried about their capital markets/investment banking advice and now we have yet another placing at a 12% discount, surely on such a depressed share price they could have got away with say 5%. As others have mooted this raise is clearly mostly driven by the banks as a condition of debt drawdown, but a 12% discount for such a supposedly great project is derisory.
I sincerely hope the "new" institutional investors are better quality than the fast money scum they usually place with or we will see mid 80s here pretty fast. Hopefully with £11.4m underwritten by BMO those guys will be a little bit more careful who they place with as they are now at risk themselves.
Another period of flat to down here I fear and our 2025 upside probably reduced to £3 max.
Well done Contrarian you called it-what is your buy price as a matter of interest?

I was one of those critics Fulmar and do still believe that with a stronger investment banking team behind them they could have done better than the 7p they achieved.I also still think institutional investor relations remains a very weak point.However, like everyone else, I am now more than delighted that they raised what they raised-including the contingency, which will undoubtedly be pretty fully utilised in this environment.
I do not think the share price has much to do with operational progress-it is just general market malaise and an ongoing severe bear market that probably lasts another 6 months.There is also simply less money to go into markets due to a liquidity squeeze as QE ends and rates are hiked.
Remain a good sized holder and will continue to add on weak days and when funds allow, but not expecting many fireworks here until at least early next year-this is a terrible market to release good news into.

Pumpky-Then your investment performs very badly.Investing in this sort of Company is a risky game-we all know that.

Totally agree Amaretto.As Wasa suggests this is now a much longer term investment than what he (and I ) envisaged when we invested-in my case started buying 3 years ago-but I still think it will be worth waiting for.The asset we have has huge value.

Are we allowed to say "there she blows" at 40p? :))

Agree Rich the marketing of these shares leaves alot to be desired .Appointing a new better connected broker could do wonders for the stock-they just do not seem to be getting infront of the right institutions, which is a shame given their top of class ESG credentials.

Yes-they should trade pretty much in line.So yes, keep your UK ALL shares in a tax efficient ISA.

...shares traded in old money-must be a record low.Proper bear market volume.

Should get get a construction progress report, but most important will be commencement of Vermelho DFS.
Wish England would stop dropping catches.

...and we have traded 17,776 shares (355,320 in pre consolidation)-pretty dire, but this low volume is apparent across the whole AIM commodity space.Could be a while before things pick up in this poor geopolitical environment.Very boring...time to go on holiday (if you can find a flight!!).

Agree with you on this Soundbuy.I am convinced we will get a bidding war-GLEN are positioning themselves nicely, but Orion and La Mancha have no affinity to GLEN-they are PE investors, they will simply take the best price they are offered.Will get very interesting in 18 months time.

I wonder when/if they will start to add to their position?

"Current global inflation is well-documented, however the Company has an embedded culture of continuous optimisation and business improvement throughout the organisation as part of a plan to offset these effects. This work is designed to allow for early optimisation in the engineering process and identification of cost saving initiatives, a critical process in the current macro environment, and has yielded positive results to date."
Massive achievement in this economic environment-well done HZM team and management.

Agree Fozdog. This is precisely why VW have recruited an in house mining team in my opinion.