Member Info for Bustard

This stock still looks very cheap.

Even if gold were to fall back to $2500 the company should still throw off loads of cash.

Barring unforeseen operational or political issues, especially with South Africa, £1 per share as well within target in the next 12 months.

Otherwise, PAF will be a money printing machine.

Your points are very well made.

The issue with the stock is not whether the price on a day-to-day basis is a penny or two different from what you would like it to be. It’s whether long-term trend is in the right direction and what is a realistic valuation?

I’m not on the least bit interested in what happens on a day-to-day basis; what I want to know is whether the share price is likely to double or more of the next 12 months?

All the fundamentals tell me that the prospects for the business are excellent. And this is true even at a gold price of $2500, let alone over $3000.

The stock should not be listed on AIM and ideally would be consolidated at 10 to one to give a stock price of £4 not 40p (some institutional shareholders have restrictions on owning penny stocks ).

If the listing is to continue in London, then the main market is a must. Let’s hope the company understand this. Alternatively, maybe a listing on another international market would be better than London? To my mind, all these questions should surely be in the mind of the board, and probably are.

Resolution provides further upside to the current stock price.

Just reading the recent chat (and, declaring my interest, being very long in this stock) , I can easily imagine a n opportunistic takeover bid emerging , especially at what, on the face of it , is a still a depressed share price. That said, it is easy to forget how much the South African connection act as a drag on value.

Despite this drag, I would’ve thought a fair price was at least twice where the stock is currently trading.

Let’s hope there’s not an opportunistic offer in the meantime….

It’s on its way towards 80p as long as gold holds up somewhere around $2800+

Thank you Shareminator (great name)

Thank you Eish.

Anybody here following silver prospects? Are there miners to invest in? Industrial demand for silver is forecast to grow very rapidly.

Eg. https://goldsilver.com/industry-news/article/silver-price-forecast-predictions/

Hi Milder. Please explain what is happening and provide evidence. Thank you.

I completely agree that the announcement of the interim results was very poorly executed, both with the special announcement two days earlier, but also the generally very confusing nature of the interim presentation and figures.

I’m still not convinced that the so-called hedge loss was any more than an opportunity cost. Ie “ we could’ve sold the goal for more if the hedge hadn’t been in place.” It is described as an opportunity cost in one of the documents. Anyway, the good news is that it’s come to an end.

I’ve been in this stock for five years, and it’s been a volatile trip but generally upwards and I confidently expect that trend to continue. I’d be surprised if we see 26p again but who knows?

The yo-yoing the Share Price is certainly weird. I’d be much happier if this stock was listed on the main market. Down nearly 20% since his peak of only a week ago.

Thanks Mike

Same ballpark indeed

How are gold stocks valued in the balance sheet? The excess of gold production over sales and which still sit with the company ? Valued at manufacturing cost?

There was a surplus of production in H1

Cheers

More like $540 revenue in 25 but that should lead to an operating profit around 200 million in 25 and maybe 300m in 26.

Thanks, Mike.

I’ve been trying the model 25, 26 and 27, based on the interim results and all the garbled information that there is there. It’s all very confusing, not helped by the mysterious hedge, losses on exchange, corrections to prior year accounting, foreign exchange movements, etc etc. I know some of these are non-cash / non recurring items but I’ve never seen such a muddle of a presentation.

By my reckoning, revenue could be just shy of $600 million in 25 and around $800 in 26 at a gold price of 2800.

Quite what that means for the bottom line I’m not yet sure, but a lot more than last year.

Hi Mike,

Helping me understand the hedging is much appreciated. Thank you.

Using your best judgement, and all the usual caveats, what (range?) operating profit would you expect to see in 25,26 and 27 - assuming, say, average gold price of 2800?

Completely understand if you don’t answer this question

Cheers

Bustard

Thanks for explaining

It’s the difference between physical and synthetic collars that I don’t understand. Been retired too long. ☺️☺️

I stand by my assertion that this has not been well communicated by the company.

Thanks for your explanation, Mike.

Very helpful

But isn’t the idea of the collar and cap to ensure that a no less than a minimum and no more than a maximum price is obtained, a bit like an insurance policy? Essentially to cover the possibility of a catastrophic fall in price?

So I don’t understand why that caused a one period hit?

I can see that if the cap weren’t in place, we would have earned more in the last 6 months.

An opportunity cost, if you will

But not an accounting loss?

I’ve no doubt the share price should be higher and believe that eventually it will be so. I remain confident that profits will rise substantially and I bought another £50k stock on Thursday. Call me mad….

But the handling of the interim results has been woeful.

The pre interim announcement two days before actual interim announcement was confusing and potentially alarming

The interims themselves were confusing - esp. the stuff about hedging which I still (a CA) still don’t properly understand.

So there’s been a lot of foot-shooting in my view.

But management are doing an excellent job running the company and the outlook appears excellent

Agreed. I am currently reading the 41 page interim statement to try and get to the bottom of what’s going on. But they certainly don’t present it clearly.

In a sense the hedge is good news, because once it’s gone the proceeds from the sale per oz of gold will rise sharply. Absent production difficulties and political problems, this stock should only go in one direction.