Member Info for Bustard

Let’s hope we optimists are correct . My estimates suggest a huge increase in profitability. Pity the recent announcement was a bit down- beat – again as a result of the company slightly over-promising then and then slightlyunder-delivering. Such an easy mistake to avoid.

With a bit of luck, we will receive a very good dividend. No need to pay off all the debt in one go.

My biggest concern is why others can’t see what seems so obvious to a few of us.

What can they see that we are missing?

I’ve slightly changed my view over the years on share buybacks. I used to think they were a bit of a swizz and basically rewarded management cashing options. While I still have that concern, I also think they benefit long term holders of the stock by slowly reducing the number of shares in issue. They can also be tax advantageous. My only disappointment was that the amount they’ve announced as a buyback wasn’t much larger.

50 million would be a better figure.

Otherwise, the figures are pretty good. Pity the production levels won’t quite hit expected levels. It’s much better to underpromise and over-deliver than the other way around.

Asci It’s a bit higher than I would’ve liked to see, but this is all to do with production start-ups.

All said, even if gold price levels were to fall back, this company will become incredibly profitable. I still believe this.

Here’s hoping that it gets there….and sticks.

Please pitch MMQ to me.

Looks interesting

Thanks.

Thank you very much indeed corryvreckan.

I was just trying to understand the debate between two other posters about uncrossed and then crossing, after looking at the last few transactions of a day and trying to understand what was going on there.

You make a good point; I should’ve quoted the question I asked. Of course with AI, even if you ask good questions you don’t necessarily get good answers.

This was my question:

“When looking at individual trades in a particular share on a stock market, what is an “uncrossed”trade? The transition I am looking at occurred after the market closed and is shown as uncrossed“

I decided to Ask ChatGPT😳😳😳.

Here is the reply:

Even though the transaction occurred after the official closing time (16:30 UK time), it’s being labeled as “uncrossed” because it did not result from the closing auction (uncrossing) — meaning it wasn’t part of the closing price mechanism.

Here’s how this works on AIM and LSE:

1. Closing Auction (typically at 16:35 on SETS / SETSqx):

• Orders are gathered and then matched at a single price (the closing uncross).

• Trades that occur in this auction are labeled as “uncrossing” or part of the “closing cross”.

2. Post-Close Reporting:

• After the market officially closes, trades can still be reported for a certain time (usually up to 5:15 PM UK time on AIM).

• These trades might have:

• Happened off-book or off-market (e.g. negotiated trades)

• Been late-reported from earlier in the day

• Been executed via market makers or OTC mechanisms

3. Why it’s marked “uncrossed”:

• It was not part of the auction that “uncrossed” the book at 16:35.

• So it’s shown as an “uncrossed” trade in data feeds or platforms like Bloomberg, to distinguish it from auction trades.

Summary:

If a trade is shown as “uncrossed” after market close on AIM, it means it was a non-auction trade, possibly a negotiated, late-reported, or off-book transaction — and it was not part of the 16:35 auction uncrossing.

If you’d like, I can help interpret the trade in more detail if you have the time, volume, price, and any trade flags (like “AT”, “UT”, “O”, etc.) from the feed.

I’m a bit of an ignoramus in these matters. Please explain to me what is an uncrossed trade . I thought that was just a normal trade. Thank you.

I remain confident that it’s a lot more than 42p

For those of us that like this stock and are long, it certainly is one rollercoaster ride.

When you believe the stock should be going up, it’s certainly disappointing when you have the sort of week we’ve just not experienced. But I’m not giving up and I still believe we’ll all be rewarded in due course, absent the risks I wrote about yesterday. Truth is, if the results come through, the stock will go up or someone will buy this thing. Of course a high gold price is important, but current levels aren’t essential to this becoming a very profitable cash generative business with a great dividend.

What’s not to like about that?

Tighten your knuckles and hold on firmly…..

No idea why my message has come out completely in lowercase. It wasn’t like this when I wrote it.

i’m long enough in the tooth not to know confidently in which direction the gold price is going to go. my sense is that we’ve had a very good rise and i shouldn’t be surprised if it sticks somewhere around the current level for the foreseeable future.

if i i was offered the opportunity to fix at somewhere in the low $3000 per ounce for paf, i would take it. that’s because i believe we’re going to see a surge of profits now that the hedge has unwounded and some of the start-up costs and curious accounting associated with australia should pass through the system.

as i mentioned in an early post, stock holding could affect the result, but i should be very disappointed if we don’t see a very substantial leap in profitability and cash generation, and in turn, in the dividend payment. if i have a doubt about the company beyond the obvious risks in the gold price, south africa and day-to-day operations, it’s in the slightly murky accounting in the previous six months results. i’m an accountant by training but i still found it difficult to properly get to the bottom of what was going on.

when we get the year end results, we’ll have a much much better idea of whether paf is as good as many of us think it is. that’s what i’m expecting.

i’m keeping my fingers crossed (and perhaps most concerned) that there isn’t something else we don’t understand from an accounting perspective which emerges and bites us on the ****.

Even if gold came back to 2800, this company should still make loads of money.

It’s nevertheless very disappointing to be down 15% or in the week. Does anybody know whether there’s some major selling going on? The erratic nature of these shares astonishes me.

I believe (and hope I’m correct) that management think the numbers will do the talking for them. They’re actually happy with the way that share price is slowly going upwards, aren’t that interested in communicating with the market regularly and will let the figures do the talking. My modelling ties up with what’s been suggested below. Of course gold mining is a risky game and shlt can happen. But with a fair wind we will see an excellent result. One other the factor that could affect the result is stockholding; if they don’t flog the gold they mine, this could have a big effect on the numbers as the gold will be carried out cost not selling price.

The volatility is astonishing. But at least the general trend is upwards. I’d love to understand properly and confidently what lies behind these wild oscillations.

This is a stock where we know it’s going to be three steps forward then two steps backwards.

That’s the pattern.

You can’t imagine how much I agree with you about managing the messages better, but I fear we are where we are with the management team In this regard, and whom I judge otherwise as excellent.

Maybe they have more options to vest and don’t want the price to go up too much too soon. Though I’d be surprised if this was a reason.

If the numbers do come through as we followers hope, the share price will go up. And if it doesn’t rise , someone will buy this thing; an ever present risk in my judgement in the current circumstances.

I piled in for a lot more today.

Monte Carlo, or bust as we used to say a long time ago. Unless I’m missing something very obvious, all my analysis suggest that this year’s result should be excellent. Obviously, depends on volume sold, so no doubt things can go wrong. But if they don’t, the results will be v. good. The only thing that concerns me is that more investors don’t seem to see it this way and I just wonder if I’m making a terrible mistake 😂😂😂😂

Has there been any announcement about anything this morning? This is a very strange drop.

The main problem with oil is that there is an awful awful lot of it still in the ground. No shortage. And the price is largely at the whim of producers and the volumes they are prepared to pump into the marketplace.

Then you’ve got the Americans happy to drill like crazy, encouraged by a big orange baboon, Russians needing as much cash as they can get hold of and Arabs, Nigerians and Venezuelans with very expensive spending habits. On top of this, we may face a global recession. This is not the recipe for high high oil prices.