Member Info for Bustard

Thanks Viable. Appreciate you pointing out the slide presentation.

When was it posted by PAF?

This. news feels very encouraging - perhaps management are getting better at expectation management and share communication?

But the share price will remain a rollercoaster if the past is any guide to the future – though I’m confident the trend will continue upwards.

A strong upward trend of the last week or so feels like there’s been a change of mood amongst some significant investors. And maybe the broker rating to 70p has helped?

Just to emphasise Mike’s point about chat, I love reading the comments here. There is always a danger these venues are echo chambers of people with the same opinion, so it’s good to hear challenge, share views and test each other other’s hypotheses.

Since writing the comment below , the stock is up 5% this morning.

That won’t last.

What a rollercoaster

😂😂😂😂😂😂

Thanks, Mike.

My sense of the Australian purchase was that it was both cheap and strategically astute. Proof is always in the pudding, of course. But diversifying away from the risky political and economic basket case that is South Africa (a big value drag) and owning a geographical portfolio of gold production, must be wise.

Unless I’m missing something obvious, or one of the risks associated with the business materialises, the share price can only go upwards or someone will buy the thing.

Goodness knows whether the stock price will hold up above 50, given the enormous volatility. But I agree surely that a take-over offer is not out of the question if we optimists are correct about the prospective profits?

Welcome to PAF, Viable.

You are joining a gang of shareholders, some of whom have been here since 10p.

And we remain confident.

This company should throw off cash in prodigious quantities, even if gold were back at $2800 oz.

The tailings part of the business isn’t well appreciated by the market. The way I look at it is that we’ve bought a mountain of processed ore which we know contains gold. Our job is to extract it efficiently. This isn’t so much gold exploration as gold refining.

The risks in this part of the business seems to me to be threefold.

Is the gold there in the spoil heaps we have purchased?

Can we extract it cost-effectively?

Will the gold price hold up at a high level to make it nicely profitable?

Last Friday was the first time this stock has ended the week above 50p.

The general march in the stock price continues to be upwards; let’s hope it can hold above this price though I’d be amazed if it doesn’t dip below sometime during next week. Don’t you just love volatility?

Roll on the results announcement in September. Of course, management will know the answer already.

I started buying at 10 and have purchased on about 5 occasions since - last time in the mid 40s. Never sold any. I plan to sit tight for a while yet . I really don’t know why they couldn’t double again.

It’s not without its risk, for sure, but I’m confident the balance of probabilities is heavily on the upside .

I see no reason why the stock price shouldn’t double and more, other than for the risks and concerns I listed earlier.

Another issue, which the market doesn’t properly understand, Is that c. 50% of the gold we produce is not from traditional mining in a sense of digging holes and looking for gold. It’s refining spoil heaps. We know the gold is there; it just has to be extracted. This is very different from speculative exploration.

I tried to explain the stock to a financial advisor recently and before I had finished, I was given an exposition of the risks of gold mining why this always be a speculative investment, particularly in small goldminers.

PAF is very different.

Again, this story isn’t properly explained to the market.

Completely agree, Charles

As I have posted previously, what puzzles me the most is why the share price isn’t already higher.

I suspect the answer is some combination of AIM,; nervousness of South Africa (political and economic); a desire by the market to see the proof of the pudding; indifferent and occasionally confusing reporting by management; and, too close a correlation with the gold price (rather than an understanding of how the profits to will grow in the future.

If we’re honest, what we long-term holders believe is that the profits are about to soar. The market in general isn’t yet with us.

I’m convinced this stock is heading upwards over the next 12 months. Of course I could be wrong but if the production numbers can be hit, the gold is sold, and costs are kept under control, this is a money printing machine, even at $2800 oz, let alone current gold prices.

But expect a bumpy ride. 10 or 15% swings are what we Long-term holders have to stomach. Nevertheless, the overall upward trend is clear and certainly should continue.

Hi Patryk

I’m encouraged that I’m not alone on this exciting ride…….

Hold tight!

All the best

Bustard (not a spelling mistake but a very large bird)

If you study a graph of the stock price over last 12 months (eg on Stockopedia), it has essentially gone from a low of 25 to a max of 50,

There are two striking observations:

1. The overall almost straight line upward trend line

2. The wild yo-yoing with regular peaks and troughs of 15 to 20%

I expect this will continue.

If you were brave, you would sell on the peaks and buy on the troughs.

I don’t have that courage.

The weak dollar has undoubtedly hit the stock price.

I’ve been buying this stock since 10p and my overall gain is c. 100%. I realise that hubris often precedes nemesis but my current investment is comfortably north of £500k. - one of my largest individual holdings in relatively small pool. I only mention this number to demonstrate my commitment to this thing 😂😂😂

So I’m pleased so far but frustrated by the lack of recent progress with the stock price and the huge yo-yos. On the other hand, if you look at the stock price graph for the last 12 months, it is fantastic, and I firmly believe will continue to rise for all the reasons that we have discussed. Could I be wrong? Of course. There are all manner of risks, but on the face of it, the company is hugely undervalued.

In truth, if the dividend goes up anything like the amount that was mentioned by Edison, this will turn into a lovely income stock.

What we need is management to keep managing as well as they appear to be doing and not splurge the cash on too many investments. That’s a risk when companies start to throw off tons of cash.

I’d like to see more aggressive share buyback as well as a progressive and generous dividend policy.

Incidentally, I never bother with stop loss policies which is probably a mistake. But when you have the price Yo-yoing like this, you can be out when you shouldn’t be.

I wonder how much confidence we can place in that 8.82 cents dividend forecast for 26?

Edison have been paid by PAF to produce the report (I found fascinating) so you’d hope that they hadn’t just guessed at that number.

I’m afraid we long term holders are probably going to have to wait for the year and results to come out in September before we see a significant movement in the stock price. Unless, perhaps, we are lucky and a strong recommendation to buy from a broker comes along and their clients take the plunge. I would’ve thought this was unlikely until the results are out. Everyone is waiting to see whether the proof is in the pudding.

The chief executive selling a few shares doesn’t help sentiment, even though it’s probably just cashing some options.

* riding a winner

Re the closing price on Tuesday, I’d rather agreed with you…..😂😂😂😂

Hold on in there chaps. I remain confident that we are writing a winner……💪🏻🤞🏻💪🏻🤞🏻💪🏻🤞🏻

Everyone enjoy the weekend. I’m still confident about PAF and with a fair wind no bad luck it will be testing much higher share prices later this year. The market is cautious and waiting to see how the results for the year to June come out.

We haven’t got too long to wait find out.