Member Info for Bustard

Good day investors.

On the topic of other gold miners, I’ve put a few bob on this horse (STGO) in the last month. Warnings and observations from you all happily read.

It’s not for widows and orphans, but my sense has the possibility of being a multi bagger over a few years.

Patience, Patryk, patience.

That’s what it will take.

Your insights and observations are very valuable, Viable. Thank you on behalf of all of us.

I didn’t expect the share price to reach 120 until the interim results were out, so it’s exceeded my expectations. I’m not surprised the SP is bumping around at this level, for exactly the reasons Mike cites.

Of my 13 investments, the only other miner is Steppe Gold - STGO. not for widows and orphans, but I feel has the potential to rise substantially over a few years. Either that or fail miserably😂

Thoughts on this Canadian minnow welcome…..

I regret not getting into silver, not least because it has substantial industrial applications.

Those of us that have done well out of PAF should take a pat on the back. It’s always easy to see something that might’ve done even better. I’m still confident that PAF will further rise. I’ve been here since 10.3p, buying all the way up and it’s been a bumpy ride and will continue to be so. But I think the fundamentals here are excellent. All the usual caveats apply.

I looked at Fresnillo a few months ago and regret not buying. What’s good about them is that you’ve got a bet on both silver and gold. The question is whether they’re nearing their peak or not. I don’t follow the company close enough to have a good sense. Whereas I do believe PAF will go higher.

I don’t own a lot of shares, preferring a very tight portfolio. I have 13 at the moment, including a couple of funds. PAF represents over 20% which is bonkers. I know sound financial advisor would recommend this. But I like the gamble. So it’s a bit of sh*t or bust for me. But one of the criteria I use when investing is whether I think it’s likely that a company could be become a two or three bagger. I did very well out of Nvidia, but I’ve substantially sold it down because I can’t see it going up another three fold. I like to buy shares that I think have that potential or clearly have long-term growth built-in. Could PAF treble from where it is now? If gold were to carry on going up to perhaps 7000 ounce, I think x3 is distinctly possible (though unlikely). But who knows where the gold Price is going? It could easily fall, though I judge all of Trump’s actions with the Fed et cetera tend to be pushing the price upwards.

Apologies for the ramble

My main piece of advice is to not worry too much about day-to-day fluctuations. They come with a territory. We all (me included) spend too much time looking during the day at stock price prices. It’s not really sensible If you’re a long-term Holder.

Below are five random gold companies, including two Just mentioned, showing their increases since August 6 25

The rides are bumpy for all of these

Swapping between them is a bit like changing queues in the supermarket. Often doesn’t work.

I agree the PAF isn’t the greatest communicator. I judge they’re getting better and the move to the main market is part of their learning process.

Name Gain %

Kinross Gold 95

Newmont 81

Alamos Gold 68

Pan African Resources 125

Greatland Resources 139

Thor Explorations 89

Precisely my thought, Mike.

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your comment on tailings. No doubt tailings are more expensive now than they were, given the rising gold price.

But I would’ve thought that it would be sensible (if possible) for PAF to take options on further tailings opportunities. Otherwise, the danger is the stock will get valued as a simple NPV exercise, which is what the recent broker valuation has done. Essentially how much gold do we have access to, estimate production costs and have a stabber to gold prize, and that gives you an NPV valuation To continue growing in the future, what is a needed is an “infinite” (or at least continuing) supply of gold. Certainly not an obviously finite supply.

I realise we also operate traditional mines, and I like the mix of the two. Extracting gold from tailings is a bit like a fancy waste recycling plant business.

I know the big movements are bit unsettling, and of course we all get enthused when we see a very large rise (like yesterday). But this volatility has been in the nature of the stock and will continue. Quite why it happens (both the ups on the downs) is a mystery. But the lesson to learn is don’t get too excited by a big rise, as a big fall often follows.

But the trend has been relentlessly upwards and should continue (all the usual caveats)

Mike and I are bang in tune with our independent forecasts.

I know the big movements are bit unsettling, and of course we all get enthused when we see a very large rise (like yesterday). But this volatility has been in the nature of the stock and will continue. Quite why it happens (both the ups on the downs) is a mystery. But the lesson to learn is don’t get too excited by a big rise, as a big fall often follows.

But the trend has been relentlessly upwards and should continue (all the usual caveats)

Mike and I are bang in tune with our independent forecasts.

There is no doubt that we’re very vulnerable to a fall back in the gold price. I stand by my assertion the average price of gold can hold at a c. $4000 per ounce, £2 per share is achievable. But that will only happen when the market sees the cash flowing through. The danger is that the share price is getting ahead of itself. Let’s see what the interim results offer. That’s going to be the interesting information. Due in February

Longer term, the company needs to acquire more tailings to process. Probably in South Africa. I understand that there are a lot there. But would welcome confirmation.

Thank you, Mike.

And a happy New Year from me to all our PAF regulars.

The gold price being at least steady is the key to our fortunes this year. I fear volatility, which will mean an even bumpier a ride for the miners. That said, I’d be a bit disappointed if the SP is not around 50% higher in 12 months time. I believe this will happen as long as the company keeps delivering operationally and gold holds somewhere around where it is today.

Lots of the gold bugs are anticipating $5000 an ounce which must be a possibility, which in turn would turbo charge the share price. But a soaring gold price will push PAF to unrealistic levels and the challenge then will be when to bail out.

Very much looking forward to production figures in the interim results

Record close tonight☺️, I believe.

What a run we’ve enjoyed

Thanks Waterloo!

That’s what I thought it stood for. It seemed unlikely that it was Greater London Authority, although that administrative body was once based near Waterloo station .😂😂😂. And those of a certain generation will remember those three letters very well in that regard.

Hi Waterloo

What is GLA?

That’s a leap in the share price to put a smile on our faces.

First day in the FTSE 250 plus a jump in the price of Au.

Marvellous ☺️☺️☺️.

i agree completely waterloo. absolutely infuriating. although i genuinely believe the blunder will be of no ££ consequence. this is purely an administrative **** up which i am confident will be satisfactorily resolved.

I rather agree Patryk, though I blame the brokers as much as anyone. But they are Mgts appointment, so mgt ultimately take the responsibility.

The stock was always like to reach a bumpy plateau before we either get a thorough operational update or, perhaps more likely, the interim results are announced.

I remember when we got stuck in the 40s and this has a similar feel. I don’t think anyone should be dispirited; enjoy Christmas and for those of us that have been in the stock for a long time, glow in the gain we’ve made so far, and look forward pretty confidently to further improvements in the New Year. All the usual caveats applying, of course.

Incidentally, has anybody read the Edison report (see link below from a few days ago)?

I found it confusing as it seems to be a NPV type valuation based on known gold reserves, using a high discount rate (10%) and a low gold price. Obviously, current gold reserves are finite, and the combination of these two factors (find out reserves and a high discount percentage) results in a low valuation.

But it ignores management ability to find more reserves and continue to grow the business.

Have I got this right? Mike may be be the best person to answer?

If I have, I don’t know why the company spend £60,000 getting this report done? What is it for? Do all mining companies have to get such a valuation?

Mike - what I hadn’t grasped was that our admission to the FTSE 250 doesn’t occur until December 22. Presumably the trackers are already adjusting their positions but to sit so comfortably at the higher end of the table is remarkable achievement. Maybe one day we’ll be in the FTSE 100. Of course, that would take a far higher gold price or some acquisitions.

I still worry that someone might buy PAF on the cheap.