Member Info for buller

the norm in this industry is 5-7 times not net earnings but ebitda, in the present environment probably more likely 4-6 times, so if we take 5 times appr 23 million you have a valuation of 115 million which will proabbly be just about right just now. As you rightly say you havent considered synergies etc and for especially BCD there are not only strong synergies but a great matching in terms of the global network and not to foregt strong personal reasons behind any attack on HRG by the owner of BCD. Apparently BCD is theone ofthe big 4 doing worse in the present climate but their is no lack of money if they wanted to go for the hostile bid

They are inthe period now where they are not allowed to say anything except is their trading update turned out to be worng. They actually send out more press releases about business won than most otehrs if you looka t their site. We should only be relieved they dont see aneed for atrding update. The last 2 months have been tough in the business travel world and any update coudl only have been bad news. Where you are right tis that they city does not like the CEO, actually because he sometimes opens hismouth too much but not neccessarily to teh city or speaks in "city" language. The other problem theyhave is that they are the only company of this type trading so people don't understand their business, there are nobody to benchmark them against and they end up being grouped with otehr travel companies who are in mainly in the leisure business such as Thomas Cook TUI etc which shouldn't in any way be compared to HRG

he says there wont be much short term excitement form the 2 major stakeholders but I don't think he has even bothered to research who tehy are and their underlying reasons for buying into HRG. HRG has secure funding for a long time, trading satisfactory in a very difficult market so shoul dbe higher just on that basis and with the T/O bid looming I think he will be very surprised. The article is actually positive untill the last few lines but the price has dropped a bit this morning, a buying opportunity for those waiting to get in here.

don't worry, I have got the champers in the fridge for when HRG hits. There is going to be some party and some hangover!!

I did say I agreed with you on the effect of any RNS

I guess that is what is called stating the obvious LOL but of course I agree, and if a bid is announced it will be 40-50p. It will happen,just don't know when. In the meantime every sell is being filled and the price moves up about a point a week.

more or less as it closed on Friday, between 17 and 18.50. No reason it should do anything else

when did the sp change from 18 to 17.25, I checked at 16.40 and it was 18, by the way at 16.28 they were 18.75. Very annoying but means nothing inthe long term

these can not be kept down for long, somebody is really eager to egt as many as possible, must be close to next RNS

not from today but not clear if it is a buy or sell. on this share it deosnt really mattter, any action moves us closer to the goal

don't worry,price now moving up again

The question is where are they getting the shares from, who would be willing to sell their shares at this price when they know what will be?

The corporate travel business is not doing well, let us not fool anyone but HRG is holding up better than most and have announced that results should be close to last year's level. Even if they were a bit down the SP is still far too low a valuation of their present value and with cost cutting, new accounts good revenue from euro countries they are perfectly positioned to ebenfit when things pick up. I n my view they should be 40-50 p just on the strength of tehir own performance and balance sheet. The bid specualtions are on top of that and I can't see how they will get away from teh present impasse without either a bid from BCD or DNATA or hopefully both or taking the companies back in private hands and taht will be at a price close to the90p that they launched at a few years ago.

Remember that Bewerwerd have a lot of HRG shares at 40 and 50 p level so selling some off will just increase the average of the rest and tehrefore achieve nothing and they shoudl have advised us as well if tehy had sold any. Yes. they are an investment company but this is personal between the head man Van Vlissingen and the head man of HRG David Ratcliffe. Of all the companies in the world you wish to invest in your competitor on the corporate travel scene for investment purposes. i dont beleive that for one second. This is either a real attempt to buy HRG to create a real global mega to compete with the 2 other megas Amex and carlsonwagon lit or it is a gigantic tease.

stake bulding before teh official bid comes in. I expect the price to be 30 before the bid and 50 + when the bid arrives

and it has started moving again, something is defo going on, quite large transactions and it acn only mean one thing, moving ever closer to the bid!

for me it looks like the comabtants are not able to fiund enough shares onthe open market to continue to build their stakes so thery are going after some of the shares held by various institutions. I am surprised tehy are willing to sell atthis price but for some of them this is small money and t hey might be relieved to see a share that has increased 400 % since before Christmas. i hope we very soon will get a new RNS to see that eitehr BCD or DNATA has increased their stake. I would think they will have to pay much more for the next chunk they need to buy to move closer to the 29.9%

Scaremongers, it seems tehre is a competition outthere who can predict most doom and gloom. Som many experts which basically mean they will forecast something and they will explain aftrewards why their forecast didnt come true

I am holding regardless, wont even look under 40 and might sell soem at 50. willprobably have to wait for that till the bid comes and that could be tomorrow or in 3 months time. In themeantime theprice is still a very low price for the perforamnce of teh company today. i think it could rise to 30 + even without a bid

and good activity today. I think we might be building up to another rns in the next week or so.