Member Info for buller

Since you've been invovled in the Ural do you have an opinion in UEL, bought in a week a go r so and it is showing a goodprofit but wonder ho far it can. Obviously it is a bit of a gamble but one that I like. Have you ever looked at that one

I agree that the RI or OO as is was a blessingin the beginning as evreybody wanted a chunk of those 38 p shares but now ithas bdragged out too long and it is a distraction. Lookslike it oculd be another month, if the market retracts a bit then it might be an adavnatge to have the OO as nobody will sell but there a reno real signs of that yet. However once the OO is over and wehave had a temporarry dilution effect LLoyd should be well positioned to move up inline with what Barclay has done. I think they have taken the big hit with HBOS and they have the insurance scheme so they can start reaping thebenefit of being the biggest bank in thecountry and besides thehowlerof buying HBOS they have a good mangement team

well held and congrats in getting back to evens. I also were in at a higher price but all the way down so managed ot get my average below 10. If you look at yesterdays postings you will see my views for teh future on the. Suffice to say that I believe it should be somewhere around 40 withouta takeover certainly within the next year and above 50 witha takeover that I am 80% certain will happen within the next 12 months. With a t/o battle this could go to 80 p. I am not touching mine till at least 50 and I have a lot of t hem. Business travel seems also to be on the up again, see today's article in TTG: http://www.ttglive.com/c/portal/layout?p_l_id=61139&CMPI_SHARED_articleId=2416397&CMPI_SHARED_ImageArticleId=2416397&CMPI_SHARED_articleIdRelated=2416397&CMPI_SHARED_ToolsArticleId=2416397&CMPI_SHARED_CommentArticleId=2416397&articleTitle=Downturn%20is%20ending,%20says%20Co-op%20boss

They would also be a startegic important partner expecially for BCD which would have to be incorporated in price. DNATA bought 2 chuncks of shares on January, on 1 occasion over 3% of the company, can't remember the price but believe it was single digits or just above and they now own over 23% of the shares

I am sure we will meet some time, will have to wear a red carnation. HRG gave statement 12/2 after 10 of teh 12 months where they said revenue was up % % on the year helped by currency, otehrwise down 6% on the year but expecting results to be inline with expectations which was more or less in line with last year where they had EBITA of around 40 mill and profits without tax of around 25 mill. They also said there would be a one-off charge realting to cuts of 5 mill but they would save about 8 millon dividends which they wouldnt pay this year. There has been no statement since that changes this view and if anything dramatic had happneed the last few months they should have advsied. From this I conclude around 20 million and if they achieve this in the present market it would be excellent. What arethey worth, well theindustry average lies around 4-6 times EBITA which on last years result would indicate around 200 million but that might today be 150 million. The value of their shares today is about 60-70 million so you cna see why I believe there is a lot of scope for growth in SP. They launched the company just a few years ago at 90p and although you shouldnt look backwards in this business the fact is that there has been very little that has gone wrong with the company since then, and even if market is down they are doing well, winning market share and well positioned for the future which is what a buyer have to look at it.

No offense, you are fully entitled to your opinion. Just a few comments, DNATA have bought a lot more shares at a lot lower prices and since the Emirates are not doing very well they might feel tempted to cash in even ata loss which I am not sure they are at any more. For me the importnat part is that HRG is still trading OK.probably the best of the mega agencies and I expect annual reults of profits of about 20 million which considering this has been the worse year on record for the trade is pretty damn good and positions them very well for the future. Even on taht profit they would be worth probably at least 30-35 p. There is no need to cut costs by 30-50%. They have cut cost along the way, have a quite stream lined operation, continued to win more accounts than they lost and have good worldwide operation which will help them in this period with the weak pound. The question must be who will take the next step, BCD or DNATA. BCD has publicly stated taht they willnot allow anyone to take HRG without them in the picture and DNATA really stepped in to help the HRG leadership with who they have cooeprated for a long time. I don't think HRG can live with having their enemy and competitor with sucha large chunk of shares so I think theyw ill either move towards a management buyout together with DNATA or give in and let BCD take the lot which would be agreat strategic move for BCD and they do have the money. Either solution and share price coudl easily double andmore from here

missed the boat on this one, the government already has 35 million stockpiled and they are not going top gove them out, only using in the hospital;system. In two weeks time nobody will remember this flu anymore

Just checked and HRG Mexico is not a wholly owned outfit at alll so has no influence on results. Looks like this alarm has relaxed and we are now clawing back that initail little setback. Next if we don't get any announcemnt on stake building, we expect the results and I am quite sruprised we ahevnt had any profit wanring since the last statement several months ago. It has been 3 very difficult months in the corproate travel section and if HRG coems out with results anywhere near what they had forecast and what they did last year it is quite sensational and shows good management and good psoitioning for the future. I am expecting soemwhat lower results but noting major or they would have warned and once the results are over in May we can start moving upwards agian till the bid comes in.

Been away for a few days with travel people from all over the world and they see the flu thing as a complete joke. 500 k people around the world die from flu every year and nobody worries about it but 10 people die from a different strain and the world goes mad. The travel industry gets hit by every hysteria around, somebody sneezes some where and the whole industry catches a cold. We have seen SARS, Bird flu, foor and mouth ove rthe last few years besides various terorist attacks and currency crisis and still the indsutry survives. This will have no effect on HRG who is solely in teh corporate field and Mexico isn't exactly the centre of that universe and I doubt we will see anyone changing tehir business plans on this basis. I am not sure about HRG Mexico but I doubt they contribute a lot to the profots and I expect this will blow over in a few weeks. Intersting enough it is bring the finances off the front pages but I can tell that I sensed a little optimism creeping in amongst the travelpeople I saw the last few days. March was not a bad month by diffcult to assess exactly as Easter was in March last year and April this year so you have to see these months together, but things are definitely looking up but slowly

Thank you, you are really on the ball, have a good sunday!

I am not talking about you but if that is your contribution and language will not be talking toyou inteh futrue as apparently you have nothing to contribute and dont know how to spek properly, so u are hereby filtered

it is the same guy, think he was called prettypoly or something like that, a true idiot

always postive

nobody will ever belive your ramping, it is too obvious. You have alreayd been banned once and just trying again! ADMIN, dont wait this time,just get ridof him

I don't think that will make any difference whatso ever. There will be overlap but in general HRG has more strengthin Europe whilst BCD are stronger in USA and Latin America. They have to continue to operate as indepednent companies and as such will be doingdeals such as t his one in Singapore. If a HRG deal happens they can simply merge the 2 operations as they will have to do ina number of countries andthat is of coures partof the savings in synergies that can achieved

Thinking about this it actually confirms that it is far more likely to be the optimum scenario, namely a bidding war between 2 parties. Untill I read this I alwasy thought it most likely that it would be a MBO with Dnata suppourting the management and they would have to negotiate a price with BCD to seell their shares which I thought would definitley not be below 50, but a bidding war could make it go much higher.

Not that it is neccessary but I can confirm The interview today in The Beat, It is by Jay Campbell, the editor and both the newsletter and Jay Cambbell are the most respected commentators in the business travel industry. Van Vlissingen is obviously not giving too much away but he definitely wants 25% to start with. Soem of the other things he mentions is that he is taking a more hands on role in teh company, that he has inserted an extra 50 million dollars in BCD to strengthen the balance sheet, taht he has bought a large agency in Singapore and intend to buy more. Thi sguy has cash and plenty of it and willing ness to expand and he needs the strength in Europe that HRG can offer, very interesting and absolutely in line with what we have expected all the way.

I notice that I have passed 3000 posts, not that it is a specific target but forgive me for posting this on some of my favourite shares but i want to take the opportunity especially after these last few weeks to thank all fellow posters for helping, advising, and generally being friends during the last few years. I enjoy the banter, humour, imagination and great ideas which I am sure have helped me to sitting on a great portfolio. For surethere have been disappointments (found the forum looking at NRK!!!) but I only blame myself for those, but some of the shares I have made very good profits on I would never have considered had it not been for this forum. My apologies for anyone I have annoyed with my ramblings and of course I am delighted if I have been able to help from time to time steer somebody in the right directions. There is a great camraderie on here and I am looking forward to the next 3000. have a great weekend and hopefully many more profits next week

are you still in AGL, moving quietly upwards

well said, How much excitement do peopel expcet. was it better when evreything was falling every day.Give an IPI every month and I will be more than happy. still think it has a long way to go but you can't buy shares and expect tehm to double every second day, ridicolous