HRG results22 May 2009 17:34
I fully understand the hesitaion regarding results next week. Here is my read. HRG told us they were more or less inline with last although I think that included the scrapping of the dividend. if the last quarter had turned really bad they should have come out with a profit warning and the havent, so in my view they will come out with a result somewhere between a profit of 15 and 23 million. They are down in sales as are everbody but most of that loss will be weiged against the gain in currency tehy will ppost due to the weak pound, you can see that both from the ststement and the 6 months results. They have also manaaged to reduce costs pretty early as well as in my view doing better than the otehr megas, amex, cwt and BCD. HRG is probably weakest of the 4 in the US which is where the biggest drop has been (and where BA makes most of its profits, hence the big fall today). Anything above 20 million will be fanatstic and I actually think they will do tht and that will be positive for the SP, between 15 and 20 depending on what they say about the outlook for this year will be neutral, may be a slight adjustment downwards, below 15 not good but in my view still no more than down to 20 and we will come back from that quickly because they are in a perfect position for the future as wellas the bid we are expecting during the next year. 20 million profit wil value them at 100 million and even at todays price we are well below that and future profits will be larger. Ia m holding GL