The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Thanks for your reply; I suppose it's an interesting time coming up even for those with opposing views on the project. All the best for 2019 on a personal level.
That seems very plausible, matnotan. Do you see the final granting of the permit passing through government or do you think they may try to block it?
The bill's in the post ;) Good luck with the ISAs.
Your ISA will automatically transfer tax free to the surviving spouse. If your estate is less than £650,000, there will be no IHT due as you can combine your allowances.
Unfortunately ISAs are counted as part of your estate with regard to IHT, cobblers. This means that you have to live for 7 years after the gift to ensure no liability for your grandchildren.
The good news is that you'll have no Capital Gains Tax to pay on the transfer as you've had the good sense to hold your shares in an ISA.
Hope this helps.
Totally agree with the fact that there are much, much safer uranium plays than BKY, easyp. On the other side of the coin, there is more SP growth potential here from this level, especially in the short-ish term. This is of course reliant on no further bad news, rather than expectation of permits being granted in the near future. More of a bet than a bona-fide investment perhaps. The unpopularity of PSOE in Spain should ease the political risk somewhat, but this risk is still extremely high. U shares have fallen back a bit from their November highs, but the general trend is upwards, so here's hoping for a prosperous 2019 for all.
A very happy new year to all! A good rise of 39.78% to 11c on the Bolsa yesterday on reasonable volume - perhaps we have seen the bottom of the SP for now. I can't see BKY mothballing Retortillo in the near future given a worst case scenario with regard to permitting, Dimi123. If the Omanis wanted to grow their Uranium portfolio, it would make much more sense for them to invest directly into another project. There's talk of a Spanish general election being brought forward to 2019, so hopefully this may help the cause here.
BKY up 13.3% on ASX to 17c (9.4p). We'll see if it follows suit here. GLA.
It may be worth noting that at the present rate, RCF may have finished disposing of their holding here roughly about the time that the next quarterly report is due (late Jan). They have 7m shares left to sell as at 24th Dec. I'm miles behind here, being a LTH but at this level of SP I am considering a small bet to average down, or even look for some short term gains. Note the word bet though. It will almost certainly be quite some time before permits are granted, if at all, but a favourable report from the CSN (hopefully Q1) could see a decent rise, even given a continued impasse with regard to permitting.
The worst case scenario is that shareholders end up with nothing . We come last in line with regard to distributions. There are no secured creditors as such as there is no "debt", but I feel that the continued support of the Omanis is absolutely crucial.
...OK, signing off for Xmas now. Here's an article from Germany that I think sums up where we are quite well with BKY. I would like to wish all posters and their families the very best for Christmas and the New Year.
https://www.rohstoff-welt.de/news/artikel.php?sid=68539#Berkeley-Energia-Ltd.-Besteht-eine-Chance
At Berkeley, there is still no tangible news. The rumour that Berkeley will not receive the last two permits for the uranium project in Spain has massively impacted the stock, though there was not officially any official government opinion in that direction.
Berkeley Energia has one of the world's best uranium projects under its wing and 100 million AUD capital in the bank at zero debt. I still think these two scenarios are possible:
Scenario I: Berkeley gets the approval, the market is totally wrong and the stock then explodes.
Scenario II .: Berkeley does not get approval or the government hesitates to extend it. Although the topic of production would be HALT for the time being, the project would continue to belong to Berkeley. You could just wait until the government changes again in Spain.
The company is currently traded under the cash stock and of course, the stock looks modest. But I will certainly not sell the stock under cash, especially since there is still the chance that Berkeley gets the permits.
The company is working hard on these last two issues, having previously received over 100 (!) Government approvals. The Resource Capital Fund (RCF) has recently been wrong in various companies and has to contend with returns. Recently, RCF has been selling more stocks and I'm just waiting to see that RCF is done with the sales.
I respect your point of view.
I wouldn't be particularly happy if a uranium mine, or any opencast operation, was planned to be opened next to where I live, and I stay in a former shale mining area. It may happen in my lifetime however.
There will inevitably be a conflict of interest between the people that want work and security for their families and the disruption and reduction of quality of life caused to local residents who are not involved in the mine.
Hello matnotan, could you please reference your comments otherwise it would seem that they may be without foundation. Do you disagree with my analysis regarding the Urbanisation permit? Do you deny that many locals want the mine?
I note that several applications for the granting of mining investigation permits have been admitted definitively recently by the local authority to BKY. This doesn't suggest wholesale rejection of the project. (I've even referenced Jesus Cruz here!!)
https://jesusenlared.blogspot.com/2018/12/berkeley-minera-espana-sl-investigara.html
There is a lot of support for the mine locally, PAU1DEANO. A lot of the voices against are very vocal on social media and have no connection with the area. As always it's the protestors who make most noise.
BKY put out this release on 5 September stating:
"The entirety of the population of Retortillo, half the population of Villavieja de Yeltes and many more residents from other towns surrounding the project have signed a petition to show their support for Berkeley‘s Salamanca mine."
https://www.berkeleyenergia.com/more-than-a-thousand-from-local-community-sign-petition-in-support-of-the-salamanca-project/
BKY have to be held accountable for press releases. Protestors can say what they like with impunity.
I don't think that the "African" scenario you mention will happen; the Spanish government is under great pressure and is seriously short of funds. The reason the Urbanisation Permit has been denied by the local authority is purely down to austerity in Spain. They simply couldn't find someone suitably qualified to deal with the application.
Hi matnotan, there are some literate responses to the criticism levelled at PA in the article don't you think? Don't you agree that there are very different levels of accountability applying to each opposing side?
"I've seen it elsewhere as well (being involved with a uranium project myself). The activists have a way of making it seem like the entire world is against a project, but in reality it is a small number of agitators (often people from far away via social media) who actually oppose these developments. Not to mention that traditional media always sides with the opposition and it's pointless trying to convince them to "play fair".
If one had to do an actual survey on the ground of who is for and who is against, I'm sure the impression would be far different from that portrayed in the media.
And from personal experience I can tell you that activists are far more likely to manipulate information than companies, because they have nothing to lose (no accountability) whereas companies have everything to lose (always accountable)."
OK, thanks matnotan - so if the CSN assessment is positive for BKY, the government will not block the issue of the permit? Is this also the case regarding central government with the Urbanisation license as this should gain approval at regional and local level?
Yes, I've spoken to Sean before and he was very helpful and reassuring. To be fair, no one at BKY expected this scenario we have and I'm sure that they are dealing with it in the best way they can. I can't attach blame to the BKY management, but it's still frustrating to have so little feedback all the same.
Well, the Slovenian Environment Minister has now resigned....if only this would happen in Spain too...
http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=AST&ArticleCode=t56ylklu&ArticleHeadline=Resignation_of_the_Director_of_ARSO
I'm not Spanish or a lawyer but I would expect that any appeals regarding government intervention in blocking the CSN license, if not the urbanisation license as well, would be taken to the EU courts.
It's becoming a matter of frustration that there has been so little communication from BKY recently. One paragraph statements are not sufficient. It would be good to know what contingency plans may be made if the opposition rumours are true, which I suspect they may well be, and if we still have full commitment from the Omanis towards the project.
There are interesting parallels with the situation facing Ascent Resources and opposition to their fracking license in Slovenia. Again, a change to a government with a so-called green agenda has thrown up new obstacles to obtaining their necessary permits. Some excerpts from their recent RNS below:
"Since August 2018 the Company has received repeated private assurances from senior officials at the Environment Agency ("ARSO"), the lead regulator in the award of permits, that the issue of the long-awaited IPPC permit had been approved and would be confirmed imminently.
This weekend it was reported in the local press that the new Environment Minister, Jure Leben, had decided to make further enquiries into the permit.
Despite repeated efforts on our part we have been unable to get any meaningful comment from either ARSO or the Environment Minister.
Over the past five years, the IPPC Permit application has been subject to detailed scrutiny by the Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO), by the previous Environment Minister, by the Slovenian courts and by Environmental NGO's during the public consultation process.
The inability of investors in Slovenia to rely on bureaucratic processes or the rule of law in the country makes any investment in Slovenia by foreign companies extremely high risk.
In progressing our attempts to get the permits awarded we have become aware of similar cases in other industries, where overseas investors are suffering similar delays to Ascent's. While we have the greatest respect for the Slovenian people, who we believe deserve better from their officials and their politicians who continue to profess the need for further foreign investment, we have regretfully reached the end of the line in waiting patiently for the Slovenian authorities to do the right thing.
It is clear to the Board that any legal action in Slovenia would be waste of shareholders money. Your board has therefore resolved to explore commencing proceedings against the Environment Agency ("ARSO"), the Environmental Minister and the state of Slovenia directly in the EU courts.
Further announcements will be made in due course."
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/ascent_resources/news/rns/story/xzzlnpx
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/ascent_resources/news/rns/story/rmmgqnr
It will be interesting to see how this progresses, and good luck to Ascent!
More on this here. Good to see some positive pressure being applied.
CyL Board asks the government to comply with the law without "demagoguery" about uranium mine
Valladolid, Oct. 18 (EFE) .- The Government of Castilla y León today called on the central government to limit itself to comply with the law without "demagogy" or "voluntarism" to authorize or deny the uranium mine project promoted by the multinational Berkeley in the municipality Salamanca of Retortillo, pending several judicial resolutions and permits.
In the press conference after the Governing Council, the spokesperson of the Board, Milagros Marcos, has asked to "ensure strict compliance with the regulations", regardless of whether the business projects appear "more or less attractive" for the corresponding Administration.
"That the rule be taken into account before the ideology," the spokeswoman demanded, convinced that certain economic activities "are being demonized" and that, in her opinion, will discourage investment.
Marcos has rejected that the administrative decision can be based on a "whim" and has demanded to offer guarantees to the projects that can be raised "because otherwise the entrepreneurs will stop being interested".
Asked if the Board considers that the central government is not acting subject to the law in this case of Berkeley, Marcos has said he is not seeing if "really the decision that is going to be taken will only go to comply with the rule "
In fact, he has linked the doubts about this project with the lack of "stability" and "insecurity" that he appreciates in Spain, where in his opinion "talking about stability is very complicated".
Despite this argument, he has finally stated that he does not have to doubt that the Government will meet the technical criteria and standards. "I hope so, I do not have to doubt it, but I hope so," he insisted.
https://www.lavanguardia.com/vida/20181018/452415624552/junta-cyl-pide-a-gobierno-que-cumpla-la-ley-sin-demagogia-sobre-mina-uranio.html