Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hi Airlineboy
Doing our back of the fag packet calculations it is hard not to think of the posibilities for sales we should be making. If we have capacity of 10m+ a month and selling basic test for $9.99, it is hard not to see why we should not be making $100m sales a month for the past 6 months. Broker predictions are for half that though and they still think share is worth approx £14. If sales come in at £300m in line with broker predictions I will be slightly disappointed but still think that should be enough to see an uptick in share price to at least £12.50. I'd love to know what is going on in the USA especially, the NDA signed in March is doing my head in. If sales for 2020 and predictions for 2021 come in less than £550m combined I think there may be cause for concern. I think the chances of that remain much much lower than seeing a figure significantly higher that could blow the top of this thing. I know it is frustrating, but know you stuck with it during the summer plunge from £5 to £2.15 and were rewarded and think you will be again. I started out with a comparatively small £1500 at 127 and added and traded a bit since, have a new bathroom, driveway, 2 paddleboards and a tidied up back garden thanks to Novacyt and now holding out to upgrade the wife's 11 year old car and remain confident it is doable. One more months wait to find out Novacyt has a realistic shot at Mid Cap status and beyond or not. Keep your nerve, you and Dylan have been rewarded so far, and sure you will again.
Just got my packs of paper resources sent out to my students and messed up the meeting time for my first lesson but trying to get my head around Teams and the joy of virtual lessons from a teachers perspective. Hopefully we will be able to support and guide you home schooling guru's much, much better this time. I need to be allowed to stay in school though to deliver virtual lessons as if I have to do online lessons from home my home broadband will not cope with 5 "live" lessons at once, plus distractions of 5 people at home will be a nightmare. (wife also a teacher and 3 teenage kids!)
As a teacher I know online learning not as good as real life. I think scotland taking right approach. Give students one extra week off, give teachers the week to prep, put plans in place for mass testing and then as soon as mass weekly testing is in place get students back, until then have online teaching but hopefully for as briefly as possible . Saying day before holidays we will have mass testing when you return, needing to treble national capacity, is just nuts!
All schools in England going to remote learning to begin next term until mass testing can be set up. Going to be a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTT of tests carried out on a regular basis. Nice of Novacyt can secure a slice of that pie.
Premier League went with Hong Kong company as did not want to be accused of taking tests for the priveleged and have NHS go short in the early days when capacity was not so high. Potentially may review now we have stock going spare?
https://mobile.twitter.com/PrimerdesignLtd
A new variant of coronavirus has been identified in the southeast of England. With our kits continuing to show 100% sensitivity in this new strain, we have you covered. https://bbc.in/2K6e8ZJ #COVID19 #Novacyt
Day traders. Went up for a couple of days, some taking 10% profit or so and moving onto next 10% they can find. Personally think I can double my money with Novacyt in not so distant future. Fundamentals very solid so holding, holding, holding:)
Revenue stream at the moment is just ridiculous, printing money virtually and has zero debt. Yes it will not last at this level for ever but I think it will for at least 6 months and then still not die off completely. Novacyt have used this opportunity to expand massively production, distributing and networking. When you delve into the figures it is hard not to get "rampy" about this share. ShaunP complies a phenomonal library of info on Novacyt so that investors can make up their own minds. search for ShaunP then find the link to his research library. If you can read that info and find reasons as to why this is not currently underpriced I'd like to understand. I think this is woefully underpriced, but being here since Feb/March have went through 2 periods of lulls were thought I might be backing the wrong horse only for it to rerate massively. There is lots of news imminent that could massively boost share price and only a few that could damage it slightly in my opinion. But check out pulled research and make your own mind up.
Macartney
I like this link for tracking market capitalisations
http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php
It is not an automatic switch from AIM, it would be if they were FTSE small cap, so doubt it will happen. ASOS, Fevertree etc have been big enough for a while and not made the switch. I imagine there is quite a bit red tape/expense involved as well and focus is currently on other things. Not sure if the limited number of shares available on the London exchange compared to the Paris exchange may also be a factor. Fair enough question but do not see it as likely at the moment.
Hi Shaun
Really appreciate the phenomenal work you do as this boards librarian and general calm head on the chatboard but wondered if you could share your thinking on your projections a little more. I've touched in on these for months without looking too deeply at them but 3 things jump out at me when I take a closer look.
In July when capacity was 10m+ do you project only 5m in sales?
Why do you have the basic kit valued at £5-£5.50 when I have seen numerous "authorities" say it is selling for $10?
Sales levels for December now at 16m. Have you heard of more capacity being built? I know they have recruited a load of new staff but just wondered if their was any intel or mathematical/scientific thinking behind that number?
Cheers and keep up the good work.
As a March entrant, I think I qualify as a lth, and for all the new investors out there getting frantic about the share drop, unfortunately nothing goes in a straight line forever but nothing but positive developments have come from Novacyt since I've been onboard. If you follow the research, kindly pooled by Shaun you should find confidence share will bounce back. I was absolutely gutted I sold 40% of my stake in the long 3 month drop from £5.20 to £2.15, all the research said it was undervalued but it was going down and down, then we had 2 months of growth that would normally be regarded as ridiculous but the research indicates to me at least that it could easily happen again very, very soon. I know it is tough when you are out of pocket but this is the only share I have ever recommended to friends and family in decades of personal investing and I still stick by that today. God Luck All!
Ian Sanders, Sales Director Private Healthcare, Novacyt, commented:
“VersaLab™ aims to make COVID-19 testing easy and accessible for private companies.
In addition, with the UK Department of Health and Social Care recently publishing new
guidance on standards for private sector testing, VersaLab™ offers customers access to
reliable and accredited services to support their testing requirements. This service
leverages our enhanced reputation, market intelligence and relationships developed during
our response to COVID-19 to continue to address needs in the diagnostics market.”
Hi Kaeren
I think it is a matter of capacity. As far as I'm aware we only have/had one USA based employee although a team is planned. Although we are supplying distributors who supply 130 odd countries we do not have employees on the ground in these countries. An agreement was signed with an American presence in March, under an NDA, which I think got us immediate exposure to the market and sales, but I do not think an American company will be doing us any favours it does not need to and will be using our product as a vessel to help flog more of their own. It suited both parties to begin with and I believe the USA on last update was our 3rd biggest market behind UK and Germany, but it is the biggest diagnostic market in the world and if GM is serious about making Novacyt Mid Cap and potentially bigger we will need to beef up our presence on the ground abroad.
Remember less than a year ago, Novacyt was a company with sales of about £11m pa and a capacity of about 100,000 units per month if its dodgy supply chain permitted it and not a particulalry large staff base. In less than a year Novacyt has increased production to over 10m a month, secured supply chain, paid off its debts, bought a supplier for cash, and secured 2 pretty major tenders from UK Government. Employed a great many more staff but it all takes time, if we had won a major US order during this time I doubt we could have fulfilled it, but hopefully getting to position we can and then replicate UK success there.
France moving back up! ..........................................................If sharehunter is going to be a bit busy elsewhere someone has to give the frequent reports of shares being bought:) Seriously though, sharehunter you may have overdone the big buy updates a tad but lots of other great posts and have kept a smile on my face over some of the low times in the past 8 months.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/11/13/golden-state-warriors-hope-rapid-response-testing-will-permit-50-percent-capacity/
Golden State looking for a PCR processed in 15 minutes not a LFT. Could Versalab bring PCR to the people? 15 minutes much quicker than Opencell etc. Anyone any idea of anyone able to do this currently?
Set price for basic test is $9.99 and production capacity back end of June was 10m, rumours that has been increased. If they have not given discount for bulk orders as has been suggested that is $99.9m revenue a month for past 4/5 months. Then add on extra price for Winterplex etc and real chance of extra production capacity and looking forward to full year results.
This would have seen shares price rocket up in my opinion. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54870145
This has got to be opencell which uses our test does it not.