The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Novacyt journey has been an absolutely exhilarating roller coaster of emotions, from the moment I invested a small proportion of my portfolio I'm March, to going all in in the summer to then bottling it and getting taken out by a stop loss drop, to then buying back in 2 days later at a cost of 150p a share. Today's losses absolutely dwarf any I've ever had in a day but I remain confident. The day we all needed this board the most it disappeared. I missed you all massively :) As soon as I heard the news 4 minutes after news broke i tried to sell at 1050 knowing a fall was coming and looking to buy back in later. I got offered nt 3 times before finally 925 offered. I thought no chance as this share had already been pessimistically priced with vaccine in mind. Gutted now but belief holds that this will see at the minimum numis base target price 1365 before Christmas. Fundamentals not changed, this company has a war chest is still selling loads, has got itself embedded in nhs and with the big boys with light house labs and will be a mid cap company in 2021. I know it is petrifying but this is the only non privatisation share I have ever recommended to friends and family in 30+ years of small scale investing and I still stand by recommendation now.
Care Home Tests got delayed and with some of our new products it would make sense for Novacyt to include them to get best possible results. Results likely this month though imo. Silence is deafening from the states though. It would be great to have a slight idea of what was going on there. Anyone know how long NDA's of the sort we signed back in March with mystery American company might last for?
We are not running at a PE ratio of 1, most expert analysis, Numis etc have earnings this year in range £200-£250m this year, making ratio currently closer to 3 or 4. I think £200-£250m is very conservative, and even if accurate would indicate undervalued in comparison to some rivals. But if share price goes up without any confirmed increase in sales you cannot keep saying we are still operating at PE 1. Undervalued yes but not to the extent that some are saying here. PE ratios need to be updated with changes in share price or sales.
Obelix, this is the UK national target figure announced by Boris in parliament yesterday for PCR use. Not Novacyt sales or production capacity, but if UK government are upping demand to this level there is a clear benefit to PCR producers and Novacyt are pretty well placed.
14,000 shares sold just after close at 970, a few small buys for handful of shares as high as 1030 after but think 970 is the accurate figure. Should not be 3.5% lower than france though so hopefully a tick up in the morning.
The last week has been another tumultous roller coaster in a long term holders Novacyt journey. In at 127 prelockdown this went up to 520 before slowly plummeting to 215. I tried to buy in the falls only for the falls to continueand my average get diluted up and up to the point my first ever bagger of 30 odd years in investing was showing a loss. Every bit of research I and all the top posters here and on twitter did, indicated this was hugely undervalued but waiting 4 odd months to see some real movement did shake my confidence to the bone. I'm incredibly fortunate that I have taken out my original stake so now only have pure profit invested, but the last couple of days has cost me thousands, and for a family man on a teachers wage is a shed load of money.
My predictions for Christmas eve share price still stands though, nothing fundamentally has changed other than a few rivals do not appear to be doing as well as expected and Novacyt has even more product developments in the pipeline. My predictions are based on that there is very likely going to be a vaccine, probably about February next year, it is unlikely to be a silver bullet to cure everyone, more flexible easy to use tests will be developed, some by rivals some by Novacyt, and we unfortunately will need mass testing for at least another year but likely much longer. Most people who have reported/researched this far more than me, I think share these views.
If you are new to the Novacyt journey, it has been one hell of an entertaining one, with much champagne popping and some serious gut wrenching, but this has got to be the safest Covid stock around, potentially the safest any type of stock in UK (Amazon and Apple pretty safe:)). It is virtually printing money at the moment and is going to continue to do so for months and months, and potentially years.
Hold tight, nothing goes up in a straight line forever, but a new SP high will be hit by Christmas. Follow the research soooooo much good news happening around this company it is ridiculous.
I've just noticed on thesharecentre that they have profit projections for Novacyt in their Fundamentals/Forecast section of 2020 226m Euros, 2021 281m Euros. Projected profit over 2 years in excess of 500m Euros. Not sure where they get their figures from but they are there and thought the forecast figures were company forecasts. Anyone aware of any official forecasts other than 2nd half of 2020 going to be at least as good as first half.
I've just noticed on share.com that they have profit projections for Novacyt in their Fundamentals/Forecast section of 2020 226m Euros, 2021 281m Euros. Projected profit over 2 years in excess of 500m Euros. Not sure where they get their figures from but they are there and thought the forecast figures were company forecasts. Anyone aware of any official forecasts other than 2nd half of 2020 going to be at least as good as first half.
Used to be monthly sales updates but nothing since the half year review. Sales will be ticking along nicely, with the Uk deals and those abroad that have been uncovered by researchers here we are well set. What I really want to know in a RNS is details of the NDA signed back in Feb/March with somebody in the USA. 7/8 months of licensing(?) revenue allowing a big company like Thermo Fischer to repackage our "gold standard" as theirs plus on going revenue could be huge, huge, huge, and demand for tests just getting started, next 6 months unfortunately the world will need much more tests than can be supplied.
If there was no more significant news positive (us update, new product launch, big orders, acquisitions etc) or negative (reliable, accepted and widely available vaccine, a revolutionary
rival product that actually works) I'd say about £14. As I think all positive news above will happen and none of the (for novacyt share price) negative, I'll say £22.16.
Got in on 127 in March and although everything I knew told me share price should have been much higher during the 520 to 215 slump I was fearful there was stuff I did not know. This board kept me in.
I got hit by a stop loss with drop from 950 to 737 and cost me about 140 to get back in 2 days later. I use stop losses with ftse but mm games to great to use them on aim. This share will be higher at Christmas, there will be a few bumps along the way, but if you believe that to be the case hold your golden tickets or even buy some more.
Hi ShaunP
I was not suggesting £34 likely, even Numis don't but I was responding to a line saying shares might go back down to £3/4 now and has reached their limit at £9/10. I simply disagree and most evidence you and many other posters have uncovered would I think back up the Numis guide of £13+ is potentially more realistic in short term than a fall back to £3/4. With reference to the share price fluctuations we are approaching break even for the day after a bit more profit taking, which I have also done a little of last week. Just bought back more this morning as my sale was due to being caught with a stop loss and believing the balance of probability favours a further rise before Christmas rather than a consolidated fall.
Are you aware of the broker note just formulated or the panel from last night? All the so called experts that are willing to put their name to a prediction are saying this is just the start of the journey for Novacyt. Undervalued given the guaranteed income already generated with substantial, substantial upside for more.
My investment platform is showing Novacyt as having one broker note now and highlighted as a strong buy but not officially saying the target price. Does anyone else's platform carry the specifics we have heard the Numis note carries? Won't have any free cash until next month but would love to top up before the note becomes fully in public domain.
Could not stay away. Stop loss has cost me well almost £2k but not ready to step away from this one but it is all cream from here. Just cost 871 (may have got fleeced leaving at 737 and back on arrival, 134 difference in a couple of days but hey ho) to come back in but this share should be £15 on UK performance alone. When will USA sales be released from under the NDA and when will France or any of the other 129 countries currently selling to plus the NGO's place any order remotely close to the UK govts BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM baby :)
Best party in town in 2020 is this board, and Novacyt best share to be invested in in 2020 in sooo many ways. Keep hold of your golden tickets or you will regret it.
Best entertainment for the past 7 months by a country mile has been being invested in Novacyt and following the story here. What a soap opera it has been at times but great times. I believe SP destined for much higher things, possibly £20+ but I've made thousands which for a humble mini investor with 3 kids and wife is hugely, hugely impactful. Early days we had a single mum invest her life savings which scared me and the board! Any news how shew has done, are you still invested? Before Dylan and his treehouse my 12 year old invested at 260 and say his share holding double in a few days with the WHO notification. He then sold in the down summer days at 250 to lose £20. It would be great to see a pic of Dylan's treehouse - at times the board seemed more invested in it than Novacyt:) I also recommended to parents and friends for the first time (in 20+ years investing) and 4 invested and were losing until this month but all now have definite profits.
Novacyt's performance has been phenomonal in past 10 months and share price still has not caught up but my house has a new bathroom, kids have stand up paddle boards and have money in the bank and great memories.
Good luck to all long term holders its been a blast.
Big thanks to all researchers especially Shaun P and GGGG, sharehunter deserves special menu for comedy value of "big buys happening" 20 times a day, especially when price going down. You made me laugh :0
Does anyone have any idea of current production capacity? Back in June they scaled up to 10m+ a month but that was for simple pcr test. Now I hear 3m antibody test can be done a month, there is the winter multiplex that I guess may take longer(?) To make. I know they have employed more staff but any idea of current capacity to make tests? Cheers