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neilrich3
Original thread asked were do you see company in 3 years time hence I think 10% chance Novacyt settles on a size marginally bigger than pre covid.
20% chance Novacyt gets taken over - share price dependent on when it happens. I think £8-14 gets it done at the moment, hopefully we would have stabilised and be at higher end or above if it comes.
25% chance revenue is above £200m pa with a diversified consistent revenue portfolio. As £54 taken, I'll go £20-27.
25% chance revenue is above £100m pa with a diversified portfolio. I'll go £9-19
20% chance revenue is above £50m pa with covid products still accounting for over 30% of revenue. I'll go £5-9.
10% chance revenue is £20-£50m pa with covid opportunities not fully capitalisied on to diversify revenue stream. I'll go £2-£5
20% chance Novacyt gets taken over
25% chance revenue is above £200m pa with a diversified consistent revenue portfolio
25% chance revenue is above £100m pa with a diversified portfolio
20% chance revenue is above £50m pa with covid products still accounting for over 30% of revenue
10% chance revenue is £20-£50m pa with covid opportunities not fully capitalisied on to diversify revenue stream
I think current valuation is in line with option 4. In my eyes 70% chance of far greater valuation with 10% chance of worse.
Since when is a MD's role to make day traders money?
GM has taken a 10m valued company and put it on the world stage in 17 months. He has overseen the development of a world class product, developed a range of new products and services with more R&D already highlighted, vertically integrated the company, developed a considerable distribution and dealers network, upscaled massively the staffing and capabilities of the company, and told it as it is the entire journey, also putting his money were his mouth is with a £0.5m investment of his own. If you check the amount of RNS's Novacyt have released over the past year compared to a "normal" AIM company, I think you would see they compare quite favourably. It also communicates regularly through its social media.
I've been on this rollercoaster of a ride for over a year, shared in the euphoria of last years surges and the gut wrenching falls this year.
It seems like some on this board would like an RNS everytime somebody farts! Stop throwing abuse at the company leadership and let them get on with developing products, making sales and helping the world deal with a horrific virus. If you are not happy with the leadership of a company sell up and invest in a leadership you believe in. I for one still have faith in what these guys are doing here, even though the brand new car envisaged is now looking more likely to be a 15 year old rust bucket at the moment. I understand peoples pain but still have faith in this journey.
Potentially coming in USA according to medical experts:
A top US health official has been warning of a "potential fourth surge of cases", as highly contagious coronavirus variants start to spread through the country.
US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky said she was concerned about recent data which showed about 70,000 new cases a day last week, a "very high number".
Taken from BBC
RBMInvest I'd be quite happy with a takeover at a 100% premium or so I just do not think one is imminent. I've been invested in here a similar time and every month I've read posters saying TO going to happen, bound to happen etc etc etc because they would like it to happen. Just because you wish for it does not make it a likely event, given all the times when Novacyt would have looked attractive for a large player to takeover over the past year I do not see this as being the optimum time for them. Happy to be proved wrong just do not see it as being an imminent event and whilst I want share price to go up I do not want people to invest on ramping to then lose money. I'd recommend people tentatively invest in Novacyt at the mo based on fundamentals not based on TO hopes, currently I'm a hold as although I think it is materially undervalued there are significant levels of uncertainty with futute of Novacyt and economy as a whole.
Just short term holders hoping and wanting to make a quick buck. GM planning inorganic and organic expansion, expresseed desire for MCap status not yet achieved and UK/French governments got legislation out blocking some of the big boys taking advantage at the moment.
Hi Meza
MCAP is worked out by Share price x no of shares so it should be the same as the official MCAP. Most people here are saying that normally MCAPs are maybe 15 times P/E ratio but currently ours is closer to 3/1, if we could sustain last years revenue an MCAP of at least 5 times current levels would be appropriate. Most are not expecting revenue to stay so high passed 2021 but also not expecting it to crash by quite as much as the current MCAP would indicate if it was to fall back to a normal P/E ratio of about 15 based on 2022 revenues. Most companies with PE ratio of 15 have significant debts etc as well, Novacyt has none, has £100m in the bank and its MCAP using measures like P/E seem very out of wack with others. Suggesting it is undervalued and therefore deserving of a higher share price and MCAP.
Not that I'm including myself in "enlightened bloggers" category but this is just correcting itself. After each high there has been a crash, as first there is profit takers who have made some cash and then people lose their nerve when they see share price going down and cash out to stem their loses, I believe Economists call it "animal spirits" eg we all act a bit like sheep at times and just follow the leader. I think we have finally hit rock bottom and the bounce back up to something more reasonable will happen. The RNS did not really cover too much that researchers here had not already discovered but not every investor checks in here on a daily basis, or looked through all of ShaunP's catalogues of research, plus it is one thing thinking you know something and another thing when it becomes official. Remember directors have bought more than £500000 shares at prices above £8. The RNS correction reemphasising link to NHS helps as the DHSC/NHS have been the golden goose for Novacyt despite selling to 130 countries, UK income has outstriped all others combined, so knowing that relationship is still strong was important.
this is a good read.
https://blog.primerdesign.co.uk/sars-cov-2-mutations-cause-for-concern-revised-1/
Spoiler alert! I like the last paragraph best ;)
All I can say is directors bought big just before Christmas at prices in the £8-9 range. I've been in since 1.27 but sold a lot when fell from 5.20 to 2.15 and then obviously lived to regret it. I could not understand the drop to 2.15 and thought others must know something I don't but then it exploded again all the way up to 12.00. Brokers say it is worth £14 and if second phase gets confirmed the news will fire this well into double figures again. You do not increase your workforce if you have no work coming in. Got to join the dots and keep fingers crossed. I'm lucky as only profit now invested but it still hurts like hell when thousands are wiped of investment, especially as I imagine I have less disposable income than most on this board.
I'll be even happier finishing blue, followed by another straight 14 days of blue and hitting £14 broker valuation :) I never thought I'd be looking forward to "blue" days. Although it was a hell of a blue day at Twickenham on Saturday and boy did I enjoy that one!
https://www.ft.com/content/4ded8f05-2686-4a36-ae4b-98321d8a2fdb
Could not see any news about contract extension confirmation on ft.com but did see Congo has had another Ebola outbreak. Novacyt has a test for that.