Member Info for BroadfordBay

SS17,

Acc to the website https://www.unmannedsystemstechnology.com/ Tekever and Quinetic have signed an MOU.

SOMO have already stated that they plan to reinstate the Kirkuk Export Grade (historically this was 34API and ca S2%, but in recent years the 34API fluctuated and there are reports of cargoes with only 32API being taken). Iraq markets its crude by giving an Official Selling Price (OSP) for all Iraq grades offered (Basrah Heavy. -Medium and -Light, and now of course with the Kirkuk grade being back on the menu). The crude quality (API and S%) are part of that OSP and significant deviations from the official values result in modified pricing. I expect SOMO to re-state their Kirkuk OSP and grade parameters very shortly.

The price actually paid by the buyer does not have to be the OSP - depending on market conditions (demand) it can be more, or less. Argus and Platts are good sources for the current price situation, with market demand, gravity (API) and Sulphur % being the main price drivers.

Considering the significant volumes of heavier and more sour KRI crudes now to be sold & exported, it's difficult to imagine that the new / revised Kirkuk grade can achieve the old value of 34API , so there is a good chance that a new export grade may be created, and there is an argument to be made for selling separate streams.

I addition to the above technical issues there are Iraq parliamentary elections planned for 11th Nov-25 and, notwithstanding all the nice words being said about the KRG agreements being permanent, this is the Middle East after all and factional infighting, before and after the elections, remains probable. Such infighting easily latches onto issues that have been exposed in the recent KRG export agreements.

...and thank you for that reminder WibbleWobble, on the filter you go!

Hi Klassic,

they don't especially bother me but sometimes you weaken and just have to snap back; I too respect Putup for his ongoing and mostly thankless efforts to educate.

I have run my own financial models since 2009, shared privately with a group of long-term investors, and at the end of the day our number are not that much different.

I cannot stand yapping dogs and -children.

Jxp101 & lucky7777:

I pity you, posting such rubbish - your lack of understanding of the most basic foundation of GKP's contract terms astounds me.

Allied to that, your "...post incessantly to confirm their bias" remark shows how limited your education has been.

I don't know Putup, nor do I always agree with his thinking, but he's on the right track.

The constant "he's being paid to talk it down" rubbish illustrates how limited your financial understanding horizons really are.

It remains now to be seen if the Kirkuk Blend quality stays at around 32API and if so, what measures will be taken to adjust the proportions of heavier crudes in the export volumes in order to maintain grade quality.

I note GKP carefully sidestepped this issue by saying the expected a price above $30/bbl.

Interesting few weeks ahead.

Don't get ahead of yourselves, as ever, the devil is in the detail:

"The Iraqi State Organization for Marketing of Oil (“SOMO”) will transport the crude from Fishkhabour in Kurdistan to Ceyhan in Türkiye while the KRG and the IOCs will market Kurdistan crude AT THE KIRKUK BLEND OFFICIAL SELLING PRICE. The Company and other IOCs will be paid from the sale of their allocation at Ceyhan via a nominated trader who will deposit the sales proceeds into an escrow account at an international bank before the funds are disbursed to the IOCs. During the interim period, the Company will continue to engage with the KRG regarding a payment mechanism for the outstanding October 2022 to March 2023 receivable balance as part of broader ongoing negotiations to resolve other Shaikan commercial matters. A further announcement will be made if and when appropriate."

It remains now to be seen if the Kirkuk Blend quality stays at around 32API and

Can someone point out when the 5% TKI shareholding was officially incorporated - i.e. when that 5% was taken over by GKP?

RNS date?

Putup,

have you modelled for the 54.4% diluted entitlement scenario (historical fiscal model basis, scenario 2 with revised Net Entitlement barrels)?

Are you still assuming the full State Back-In 20%?

Are you still including the 3rd Party possibility at 15%?

I see the UK, along with France and Germany, has invoked the Snapback Sanctions clause against Iran.

There will be an emergency UN meeting tomorrow and anything is possible.

Hardliners / Keyhan newspaper are already calling for the Straits of Hormuz to be closed.

It never rains but it pours...

My view of Chevron's return to S. Iraq is that:

A. The new Revenue Sharing contracts offer more attractive terms than did the old TSCs.

B. The giant Nasiriyah Field (estimates of around 4.3Bn barrels) is of the most interest to CVX

C. The Heavy Sour Crude Balad Field is deemed an acceptable price to pay for access to the giant Nasiriyah field.

Potential linking of the Nasiriyah Field Development with development of a new Refinery (Gazprom 2024 prelim agreement died) remains on the table, with CVX still a potential partner

Iraq elections are scheduled for 11th November - in 84 days time.

In the jockeying for power & influence before, during and after these elections, we can expect the issue of KRI receipts and -payments to foreign contractors will be a bone of contention for certain groups.

Thank you for that Ahmed / HGNAhmed.

Apologies, I omitted to include another private company, producing in the KRI: ZEG Oil & gas.

ZEG acquired Forza Petroleum, operator of the Hawler oilfield, last year and last reported output was about 15Mbopd.

Needless to say, ZEG is privately owned, KRI company and full details are impossible to come by.

In addition, it has been reported that Rosneft is currently producing from the Akri-Bijeel block which was relinquished by GKP in 2016. We have no output figures from that block.

All in all, when such minnows are included, output (excl. Khurmala Dome) might well be approaching 240 - 250Mbopd.

Understandably, the main focus of the 2 main bulletin boards (LSE & ADVFN) is on the publicly listed western companies producing there: DNO, Genel, Hunt, Shamaran and GKP. For some investors of course it’s ALL about GKP, DNO and Shamaran, as HKN is a more-or-less a private company and Hunt appears publicity shy. I ignore gas production at the moment.

Output for the various oilfields operated by the above breaks down very roughly to ca Tawke/Peshkabir=80Mbopd, Shaikan=50Mbopd, Atrush=35Mbopd, Sarsang=30Mbopd, based on satellite data, I estimate the Jebel Simrit wells may currently be producing ca 15-18Mbopd (5 producing wells plus PF).

Total output that can be readily / mostly verified by public records therefore appears to be around 210Mbopd.

(Sarsang production limited by drone strike until end-Oct-25, thereafter output is expected to hit ca 50Mbopd).

Another crude producer – actually the MAJOR producer in KRI and not listed above is the KAR Group, which operates the Khurmala field. KAR group is a private company run by Baz Karim Al-Barzanji (often called Sheikh Baz) a VERY close friend of KRG leader Barzani. Output of the Khurmala Dome fields is difficult to tie down but has been stated by reputable sources, incl. Wood McKenzie, as being between 120Mbopd – 200Mbopd. Khurmala crude is a nice medium-grade crude, with ca API-33 and ca S2.25%. As well as production from the Khurmala field, main business of KAR group is Refinery Operations, with refined products sold to both the Iraq government and private sales outlets. The proportion of extracted crude going thru the KAR refineries (from Khurmala field AND others) is much less than what is produced, but again, exact numbers are difficult to determine. Guesstimates of Khurmala crude produced and available for export tend to be around the 50% level.

There appear to be no public record details of KAR’s operating contract, PSC or whatever, with the KRG.

Just looking at the output numbers, it would be fair to assume that APIKUR cannot be the only voice in the room with an interest in having high $/bbl producing costs recognized.

The statement put out this pm, however, that low-cost producers (KAR/Khurmala reputed to have ca $4/bbl producing costs) have agreed to “donate” some of the $16/bbl mentioned to other, higher-cost producers must surely be swallowed with a pinch of salt, or a stiff whiskey. Without sight and approval of Capital Investment Records & Plans, there is no way that $16/bbl or more could be thrown at KAR Group/Khurmala by the central government.

Without sight of the KAR contract, how will SOMO be able to agree anything?

All IMO.

Happy to correct any errors.

Peabody,

do you post under the moniker "radfordp" on the ADVFN board?

Or do you just copy his posting, without any acknowledgement?

Todd like a game of golf, Saddam liked a game too.

Just saying...

I make no predictions but I reckon SOMO is currently in price discovery mode - getting prices for the individual crudes that will be incorporated in the new Kurdish Blend / Kirkuk analogue. Once all of that is clear, and the end customers (refineries) have some product yield data, only then can serious talk begin about the $/bbl to be returned to producers.

It looks like some cargoes have already been sold/transferred, so a little more waiting is on the cards. IMO.

In general the payment for production losses as a result of such damages as the oil contractors have suffered comes under the rubrique "Consequential Damages" and is NOT covered by insurance.

Damage to the facilities themselves, however, is another thing entirely and, while subject to hefty ME / Iraq premiums, it's quite probable that there are specialist insurance companies willing to write policies for this.

This a list of currently producing KRI fields - it's incomplete as there are quite a few smaller fields whose data I cannot access. If you examine the published records for the contractors involved, you will see that there is a LOT of oil still being produced:

Khurmala (KAR / MNR) Most of the field output is probably refined in the KAR refineries, with associated products then sold on

Swara Tika (HKN)

Atrush (Shamaran)

Shaikan (GKP)

Peshkabir (DNO)

Tawke (DNO) Tawke has its own, small refinery producing mostly diesel in small quantities

Hawler (Forza)

Jebel Simrit (Hunt)

Khor Mor (Crescent, Dana) Condensate

Garmian (Gazprom) Sarqala & Hasira

Akri-Bijeel (Rosneft?)

?Taq Taq (Genel?) (unclear if still operational and where oil might be going)