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The Faysh Khabur Export Pumping Station lies midway between the villages of Faysh Khabur, which lies on the Tigris river border to Syria, and Derabun.
The export station was NOT built by the Kurds and, leaving aside recent plant additions within the compound carried out by KRG/MNR and western contractors (such as DNO), remains part of Iraq's sovereign assets.
It remains to be seen how ultimate control of this Iraq export station will be settled; don't forget also, the pipeline agreement is between the sovereign states of Iraq and Turkey - the KRI is not even mentioned.
The real nub of the matter is that the Kurds in N. Iraq have never been happy being part, albeit a semi-autonomous part, of Greater Iraq, and have always seen themselves as being something special.
This "Kurds are something special" feeling can also be seen in Turkey and Iran, where large Kurdish minorities have been causing trouble for decades. The campaign waged by Saddam Hussein against the Kurds cost them many lives, but also won them many friends in the West. Problem is that on this admiration and "friendship" was then built a righteous belief of entitlement - witness the independence referendum fiasco.
All of this of course has arisen because of the poorly drafted Iraq Constitution, in which the US took insufficient notice of the true dynamics of Iraq power politics, and which allowed the allocation and benefits from O&G Development to be haggled over for many years. It's far too easy to blame Iranian Sh'ia influences; the IR Federal Structures and workings to to this day have never been properly defined and implemented. As time goes on, these poorly defined and implemented structures are being redefined, whittled down, altered. In view of what has happened, it is completely wrong to assume the USA can now come in and force a Sovereign Nation to alter their way of doing things.
Like it or not, that's the way it is.
...and don't forget the Field Development Plant, where exactly are we in that grey area at the moment? And don't forget the Flaring issue - stop it or else.
KRG or SOMO could say, and with some justification, why did you pay out so much in dividends when you are aware of the impending FDP Capex commitments ?
$40 - $45M might help at a low rate of output, as we have at the moment, but not when you start aiming for 50+MBopd.
Lots of leverage still to be exerted.
Just a reminder, the issue of PKK and their continued attacks against Turkish military installations from bases in the Quandil Mountains is not an easy one to solve - not for Iraq and most definately not forTurkey.
As long as their leader Abdullah Ocalan remains in prison (where he has been since being abducted from Kenya by Turkish security in Feb-1999, much of that time in solitary confinement) we can expect further attacks in the Southern Badlands against O&G infrastructure (especially the Ceyhan pipeline) and against Turkish bases wherever they may be.
From his prison cell, Ocalan continues to give focus to the internal struggle between the Kurdish minority and the Turkish government, who have shown scant regard for the ethnic Kurdish struggle for recognition within Turkey.
There are dozens of relatively low-production wells all around Mosul - a beautiful city devastated during the DAESH troubles. Those locally produced crudes are all heavy, comparable with SH output, and used to having first call on refinery buyers. The needs of such local communities will not have been completely forgotten and GKP will be just one of many sellers trying to keep their foot in the door.
I understand the comma in "...expected to be ca $10M net to GKP, above expected monthly net capex and costs of ca $6M..." to have the following consequential effect:
"...expected to be ca $10M net to GKP, which is above the expected monthly net capex and costs of ca $6M...".
So, $10M minus $6M.
It would be prudent to assume that not all SH output will be allowed into the Ceyhan Pipe / Kurdish Blend.
SOMO has quite specific ideas on what grade they wish to market ex Ceyhan and a high proportion of low-API sour crude such as SH may not have a place in that.
For my part, I assume ca 50-60% (of say 55Mbopd) will still have to be sold locally at silly prices.
@putup,
too many people refuse to recognize this point.
it is also unclear, at least to most investors, at what point(s) the ownership of the asset(s) will be, or has has been transferred. it is complicated by the fact that "the asset" (the pfs, the flowlines, the tanks, the weelhead gear, etc, etc) has been installed at different times over some years . it is not a ****geneous entity, rather a collection of equipment.
hard-nosed negotiators could argue that item a,b,c have alread ybeen paid-for ad no longer belong to you, but to us.
as you so capably point out, the accounting policy is somewhat of a fairytale - and the fact that so many have been happy to go along with it is a disgrace.
@straycat,
you say: "...We've no debt and a vision for the future which is self-funding."
Well, of course that is almost certainly the case - but visions are funny things, they don't always work out as you hope, or dream, or plan. Lots of things can go wrong, are going wrong, that can make the parameters on which your vision is based invalid.
Others are now in control of "the future" of the oil industry in N. Iraq, and the KRG/MNR together with APIKUR had better be careful that some producing companies don't start to "reach out" to potential new friends down South; yes, I know, that's too strong a word to use in view of how Baghdad works but you get the point I'm making.
GKP seem to be making the best of a bad job - at the moment, but that's nothing to praise very much. The local market is very finnicky and controlled by others who are not your friends.
SOMO is the new boss and, while there may be Strength in Unity there is also the danger of going down together.
Well, aiming to develop and successfully accomplishing that are two very different things - if and when the competition does get its act together (don't hold your breath) the SP will not crash overnight either; it will be a painful journey with many lessons to be learned.
Given a fair wind and nothing going crazy in the Middle East or with China / Taiwan, I see 1000 by Christmas as absolutely possible and 1200 by Feb-25.
A great company.
@****eye,
well for a start they have never believed the inflated krg figures for population, public service employees, etc.
i see this as just a continuation of that "we don't believe a word of anything you say" attitude.
re oil, they have already lost the complete sovereignty they had - any softening around the edges will surely be minimal?
Rudaw is reporting that the Iraq Federal Court just just issued a ruling that the nr of seats in the Kurdish Parliament (currently 100, incl 11 for minorities) is unconstitutional and must be reduced.
They also say that Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) will replace the Kurdistan Region’s electoral commission to manage the Region’s elections.
Stirring the pot, yet again.
I see Kozel's application for a reduction of sentence has been denied.
I see that Masrour Barzani has now been officially summoned to appear in court in the USA (District of Columbia) on wide-ranging charges of corruption. Also named as one of the plaintiffs is Ashti Hawrami.
If you are a US resident, or have a Green Card, you are obliged to comply with the summons and appear to answer the corruption charges.
Should be interesting - the case is estimated to last about 18 months.
Case 1:24-cv-00278 Document 1 Filed 01/30/24
@invstrat,
I don't think we are quite there yet, but it's certainly worth keeping at the back of your mind.
@Invstrat,
interesting question.
The Amended and Restated Bye-Laws from 2016 (Byel-Law 170.11) allows the Board (in a serious financial situation) to agree an urgent "rescue operation" which involves the issue of new shares to, or the acquisition of existing shares, by, the rescuer without Approval by Resolution of Independent Shareholders, and which would otherwise require the rescuer to make an offer pusuant to Bye-Law 170.1, The Board may waive the requirements of Bye-Law 170.1 in such circumstances provided that either:
170.11.1 shareholder approval is sought and obtained as soon as possible after the rescue operation is carried out.
OR
170.11.2 ome other protection for Independent Shareholders is provided which the Board considers satisfactory in the circumstances
Serious Financial Situation...
Just to add,
"around the neck" is a tad less provocative than "around the throat". No matter, it will still be viewed as unncessarily provocative by the Baghdad folks.
@TM,
this is what I heard at 1:20 into the 1:38 video:
"Baghdad is currently STRANGLING, got its hands around the neck of Kurdistan region..."
@TM,
true, he is not (yet) a director but only a Chief Commercial Officer...but one who has been told he will soon be CFO.
He possibly has even more detailed knowledge of "what's going on" than does the CFO...
Insider Trading rules surely prevent Mr GPL from buying shortly before any news of importance to which he is privy...